Sunday, Oct 22, 2006

Hamish Macrae - Independent - What planet is he on?

Independent: The mountain top is shrouded in mist: could rates have some way to climb?

"The Bank of England must try to avoid a housing bubble"

This Guy's an A1 jerk. A reasonable article totally spoilt by denial of the most obvious factor regarding house prices.
He obviously didn't watch the "Tonight" programme on Friday.

Posted by veritas @ 12:33 AM (943 views)
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12 Comments

1. Ephraimbubbleblower said...

But if he's right that rates could go considerably higher than the markets are currently pricing in, then we should all be jumping with joy because 6% rates will see the market on its knees.

Sunday, October 22, 2006 02:52PM Report Comment
 

2. Oracle said...

Of course rates need to go up!!!!

We've had a credit binge for so long that people need to learn to live within their means.For the past decade the world has relied on US/UK consumers.All good things come to an end.

Germany and Japan to stage a dramatic resurgence???(at our expense naturally)

Sunday, October 22, 2006 03:46PM Report Comment
 

3. bidin'matime said...

As with the 'surprise' at the August rate rise, the people (ie most people) who go round with their eyes closed, don't see a bubble. They think the market corrected itself in 2005 so it's now back to it's steady grow rate of around 10%pa which it can continue indefinitely (until they retire and sell their BTLs for a huge profit).

So they are surprised when things work out differently. But of course, if you are an economic commentator with a level of awareness only marginally ahead of the man in the street, when you realise that the future is upon us and you omitted to see it coming, you have to continue to deny as much as possible, whilst describing how this could all come about without the things that you are denying. Its the economic equivalent of Bliar saying that he couldnt have foreseen turmoil in Iraq because who was to know that the insurgents would be such spoilers in an otherwise perfect transition to democratic nationhood...?!

But the spin aside, there is no mistaking the message (either on Iraq or the economy) - "We were never wrong, but now that the future has arrived, we predict that things are not going to be so good...".

I dont mind how long it takes for commentators to recognise the malaise in the economy - it will bring the patient down whether the physicians see it coming or not (hope not too many metaphors for you here..). It's just a shame that, like Iraq, so many people have to suffer due to the lack of foresight of those who are in a position to influence events.

Sunday, October 22, 2006 06:37PM Report Comment
 

4. talking rot said...

Having read this Blog for a number of years, (from 2004), I recall 2005 being described as "It will be an interesting year." Oh hum, 2006 was described as "This will be the interesting year - again." Both years saw growth - of sorts - in house prices. Still no HPC. I'm getting fed up with false dawns. I wonder if the [allegedly] impending crash will be put on hold by the 2012 Olympics? Crash Gordon has the luck of the devil and I can not see any likely change until Ed Balls is firmly enthroned within the Treasurey. At least he can't blame Crash.

Sunday, October 22, 2006 08:15PM Report Comment
 

5. Jolo said...

TR, if there is a rate rise in November giving us at least 2 rate rises in the last third of 2006. Surely 2007 will be an interesting year? we live in hope.

Sunday, October 22, 2006 08:37PM Report Comment
 

6. sovietuk said...

Talking rot, the papering over the cracks will almost certainly be made to continue until the next election and the Olympics (probably within 2 years of each other) unless the forces are too great for a correction before then. After that it's just a question of how long the paper holds before the whole lot comes tumbling down.

Sunday, October 22, 2006 08:40PM Report Comment
 

7. Retiredbanker said...

Hamish Macrae has to be the worst economic journalist around at the present time.

I remember reading an article of his some years ago that was so risible that I found myself
checking the date of the paper it was in to see if it was the 1st April.

It wasn't!

Sunday, October 22, 2006 08:50PM Report Comment
 

8. Nohpc said...

How is he a jerk? Of course the BoE must try to avoid a HPC. They do not officially concern themselves with house prices but unofficially it is one of their biggest concerns if house prices crash so will everything else in the UK.

Monday, October 23, 2006 01:31AM Report Comment
 

9. Van Hoogstraten said...

I think the reason the crash has been delayed is that some responsible behaviour which was expected of fiscal authorities in addressing inflation stimulating M4 growth hasnt happened.

I fail to see what the Olympics has to do with house price growth in East London - do people anticipate visitors (who have not been put off London being Al Qaeda's number one target) coming from around the globe and being bowled over by the beauty of Stratford to the extent that they offer ridiculous sums of money for existing housing stock.

Monday, October 23, 2006 04:24AM Report Comment
 

10. Sam said...

re: Olympics.

There are studies which have shown that hosting the olympics in already developed cites do little to promote inward investment, and growth in overall living standards. -- A bit like the difference between having them in barcelona or LA. Barcelona - big difference, LA less.

I think london falls into the later.

Monday, October 23, 2006 10:08AM Report Comment
 

11. tyrellcorporation said...

VH... hilarious, I visited Stratford on business a few weeks ago and without doubt it's the most aesthetically challenged place I've ever seen. The only good thing about climate change is that Stratford will be the first area overwhelmed by rising see levels!

Any localised HPI as a result of the Olympics will be short lived...

Monday, October 23, 2006 10:41AM Report Comment
 

12. Nohpc said...

London does not fall into the developed city category. More than 50% of it is an absolute dump. London will benefit a lot with regards to infrastructure and the area where the olympics are is known to have high levels of unemployment, below average skills and intelligence, social neglect etc.

Wednesday, October 25, 2006 05:46AM Report Comment
 

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