Friday, September 1, 2006

There will be no

The Crowd and a Soft Landing

.......The normal will soon be back in style...even in America. And when it does, the gentle, soft landing Americans believe is their due, may go out the window. Instead, housing will come down like the Hindenburg...and the economy with it.

Posted by uncle joe @ 09:19 PM (1668 views)
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10 thoughts on “There will be no

  • Lew Rockwell and the Libertarians….Hovers somewhere around the Right-wing neighborhood of the BNP, and a dubious source of information on what the US population may “believe is their due.” The Libertarians themselves would probably change every third word of the US Constitution to “I” “Me” or “Mine” just based on guns and property rights, so I can’t imagine where their criticisms of anybody else’s assumptions of entitlements to having life their own way would come from — whatever that way of life might be, “cushy” or otherwise.

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  • Retired Banker says:

    indiablue19-

    The sainted Alan Greenspan was quoted as saying (approvingly it seemed from the context), that the
    average American was now traumatised by the fear of his job being outsourced to a developing country,
    and therefore did not dare ask for a pay rise.

    Do you think there is any truth in this rather sweeping claim?

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  • Lew Rockwell and his colleagues are senior economists of the Austrian School and members of the highly regarded Ludwig von Mises Institute. Their views on the coming US house price crash and recession are well thought out and difficult to contradict.

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  • “When popular opinion is nearly unanimous, contrary thinking tends to be most profitable. The reason is that once the crowd takes a position, it creates a short-term, self-fulfilling prophecy. But when a change occurs, everyone seems to change his mind at once.” ~ The Crowd, Gustave Le Bon

    Nice quote

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  • Libertarians are to the left of the Republicans. They favor decreased government, less regulation (including legalizing marijuana and the like).

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  • Hailey13 said…


    Yes, they do indeed favor decreased government, but not in the benevolent “left” manner of politicis that I grew up with in the States. I’ll grant you, they are in fact, rather hard to pin down on the spinning directional wheel of politics having declared themselves “anti-State.” And to my mind they are, except for the marijuana and free-scream prostitution and sex parlour part, hardly the typical left liberal “flower child” approach. Having watched them come to being, strikes me more as reactionary [so far right it’s nearly far left], and something of an “I’ve got the most guns, so why don’t you get off my property or my dog will eat you” mentality. All that means to me means is that the rich with no conscience and razor elbows are still in charge. It’s all just too “Charlton Heston” for me. And he’s definitely Right, not Left.

    They are what is referred to as “socially liberal, but economically conservative,” if you can figure that out. To me it has always sounded like a scenario in which we all do whatever we want provided we stay out of the way of the inexorable political steamroller they’ve minted. Those Libertarians who get themselves into power would continue to make money from us and our “freedoms” and then pull all the strings at strategic moments. I just don’t find that so different from what the US [and the west in fact] have already got — except their not pulling the Patriot Act number; their actually letting everybody run as wild as they please to appease them. I suppose we could debate which direction of the political compass it comes from. It still looks to me self-serving and pedantic. Mind you, I don’t carry a card for any political party and never shall.

    Midlandred…..Sorry, but the outright machine-like, dogmatic language of the thing [Austrian School/Institute] puts me off. It may be “humanist,” but it doesn’t come across as mildly human. I think for Lew to start his own institute and name himself the President is quite enterprising. But if Greenspan had seen anything worth lifting in his visits to the Rockwell camp that might have added to his OWN popularity or lengthened the leash for him, I’m sure he would have adopted it. Instead, he just patted them on the head in interviews. Now poor old Bernanke’s got the hot potato and can go down in history as a dunce. Shrewd guy, Greenspan.

    So far as anticipating the HPC in the USA, I’ve been warning my relatives there for three years about a USA HPC and recession, and I’m not even that smart. On my say-so, my Mother in the USA sold both her properties and is living in a rental at age 82. And is she glad she did. My spouse and I have done the same — selling out two years ago and banking the profits. I’m not arguing with Lew and his boys, but I need something practical to do in our own situation, and just pontificating and preaching against the status quo doesn’t cut it. Fortunately, in the course of thinking it all through, I found this UK HPC website fountain of intelligence and have to say these guys could run a small country successfully if there are any spares around.

    Dear Retired Banker…

    I think Americans have been worried for years over the out-sourcing of manufacturing of all types, and now probably other jobs as well. This has been going on since I was a child. It is naturally attributable to the bloodless attitude of industrialists that with no thought of patriotism nor concern for those who made their empire, they will take jobs to the countries with the fewest regulations and lowest wages and then sell their product back to the rest of us for all they can ask. We saw it happen first with steel, automobiles, then lumber, then clothing, then electronics, and so forth. The most insulting I can remember is felling the forests of Washington State, shipping the raw wood to Japan to be milled, and shipping the finished lumber back to the USA to be sold at a premium. Somewhere in there was a vast profit margin for some greedy soul, but not for the US saw mills obviously.

    There have been massive campaigns in the US to oppose this for a variety of reasons. Job protection probably at the top of the list, but also the slave conditions which companies profit from in previously non-industrializes, non-unionist countries and the reputation the AMERICAN PEOPLE[not the industrialists who benefit and make these decisions against protest] attract from this at the same time that it is taking American jobs. All the years that the Unions kept work conditions halfway reasonable for the common man and woman — disappeared entirely.

    I didn’t read what Greenspan said and maybe it was overemphasized; perhaps in a subliminal message to workers not to stoke the fires of inflation with pay rise demands?

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  • “Inflation might be up, but wages aren’t. And when wages can’t keep up, sooner or later, the builders have to slow down, housing inventories have to be whittled down, and housing prices have to fall in step with falling supplies to match the real demand.”

    This, I believe, is the critical question. Could inflation outrun HPC? I’m looking for input on this question on the forum – see http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=33413 – any comments would be welcome.

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  • I’ve never heard of these people, but the article is very well written and concise.

    “And having seen things slouch so absurdly for so long, we find we no longer know what shape they were supposed to be in the first place.”

    Wow. That’s summed the credit situation up in a soundbite.

    Interesting that he mentions Friedrich Hayek, capitalist economist author of “The Road to Serfdom”. In the book he advocates private ownership above all else as a means to escape forced tenure. Interesting and ironic that due to speculative price pressure on the free market many mortgage holders have been dealt the same fate!

    This article is a good find.

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  • Bonner and Rockwell are right-wing, be in no doubt at all about this.

    It is easy to be a ‘social liberal’ once you have subverted all aspect of ‘the social’ to extreeme right-wing economic control.

    All you need do is show appropriate (seemingly leftist) sypathy upon social issues, while explaining that despite these ‘concerns’ , that you are first and foremost and economic (neo) conservative. Aderhance to the latter dogma, allows the original ‘right-wing’ policy agenda to be carried, while at the same time being able to claim to hold are far more ‘libertarian’ position than is the reality.

    ‘Mr Market’ is far from A-political, but if people can be convinced that it is, and that it is a ‘natural’, ‘organic’ mechanism, then no responsibility need be accepted for the ‘sharp edges’ of a right-wing system, where people suffer, and votes are concequencly lost.

    New Labour are the best example of this political stratergy. Ministers like John Reid, for example, have become very astute in couching right-wing policy in left-wing language. I used to laugh, believing that the British people would see through it and not allow such despicable politics to triumph. However, almost 10 years later, here we are!!!!

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  • http://www.politicalcompass.org/ eliminates some of the confusion surrounding left/right/authoritarian/libertarian categorizations. It also attempts to show that trying to pin politicos down to left or right stances is a little too simplistic. W. Bush is very clearly in the right wing/authoritarian camp – big government with conservative policies. Reagan was far more of a libertarian advocating smaller government but obviously still in the right wing camp. Democrats keep the US left very much on the authoritarian side of the fence but libertarians (with a small “L”) like Noam Chomsky still hold some sway. Tony Benn does much the same in the UK.

    Good article.

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