Sunday, September 10, 2006

Damn those pesky meteorites!

Festering Dudgeon

A genuine hard landing for U.S. housing will send up dust all over the world [yes, that means us]. Like the impact of a giant meteor it threatens to block out the sun...and lead to the extermination of whole species of investments... Big picture stuff from the big country.

Posted by harold @ 10:04 AM (590 views)
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One thought on “Damn those pesky meteorites!

  • Obviously a blog ….but some nice comments on the possible causes of an HPC in the US:

    “In the run-up to their retirements, the baby boomers were net buyers of houses. It was a way for them to finance their golden years. Now that the boom is over, they will most likely be net sellers – because they will need the money.”

    And on the size of a typical HPC (based on historical research):

    “In real terms, price declines of one-third or more are nothing unusual, examples being Australia, Italy and Spain in the early 1980s. Falls in nominal prices are much more common in big cities. Not only London but Boston, New York and San Francisco, too, saw prices drop steeply in the early 1990s.”

    “The International Monetary Fund analyzed home prices in a number of countries from 1970 to 2001, and found 20 “busts” – when real prices fell by almost 30 percent. All but one of those busts led to a recession.”

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