Saturday, July 22, 2006

HPC mentioned in the Telegraph

Word on the street: Apocalypse now? Having read the signs, I don't think so

House price forecasts aren't the kind of thing one gets into fisticuffs over. Or so I thought until I found myself in a fevered discussion with a friend-of-a-friend in the pub. The topic of the housing market came up, and I volunteered my predictions.

Posted by webmaster @ 10:26 AM (1235 views)
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16 thoughts on “HPC mentioned in the Telegraph

  • The Bald Man says:

    Try reading the signs a bit closer. House prices to income ratio at its highest ever level. Interest rates worldwide rising. Inflation rising. Repossessions rising. Oil prices going through the roof. many classes of assets in a pricing bubble.

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  • Its funny. Mr Conway won’t actually say “House prices will not crash”. Why? Because he knows its still very plausible, and that it would leave a lot of egg on his face.

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  • I don’t know why the chap seems so surprised by the prospect of ‘fisticuffs’.

    The ‘boomers’ seem shocked that the jilted generation should mind not being permitted to own a home in their own country, are amazed that the ‘boomer BTL brigade should be viewed as the greedy, selfish, anti-social parisites that they are, and horrified that the young/poor won’t pay for them to live out their American fantasy into their retirement.

    Understand, that no generation has done more damage to this Nation that yours. Appalled at the prospct of having to live your retirement in the sort of poverty that you are forcing your parents to, you are stealing your childrens future in order to pay for your own comfort in old age. Your generation will pass into history as the most self-dilluded,self- rightious,most arrogant, most hypocritical, and most dispicable that our Country as ever known.

    Your days of plenty are truely numbered, and there will be fisticuffs along the way.

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  • This withering sarcasm directed to the HPC devotee, written, I suppose by THE Edmund Conway. The Edmund Conway who just warned that the USA may be going bankrupt and unable to support its social systems — as a result of an ageing population that is not so different from that of the UK and even with a significantly smaller national debt than the UK? The SAME Edmund Conway, no doubt who acknowledged that Gordon Brown’s 80 tax hikes would soon top 100? Surely he has read his colleague Jeff Randall’s “Tax and Waste, Government Puts Us All in a Vice” which quotes Edmund Conway as a source on Brown’s vices. I think that Edmund recognizes the complex concerns of the HPC crowd and is being too cute at the moment. [Really Mr. Conway, do you use the word “fisticuffs” in your normal conversation?]

    Right now Conway chooses to look away and act coy — having just purchased a flat himself [Telegraph/ July 8] — even realizing the EA’s description and reality are two entirely different things. He can talk it up from his journalist’s podium all he wants, hoping his flat purchase won’t flatten.

    No, Edmund the HPC contributors don’t aggresively dislike homeowners as you have said from your ivory tower. We aggressively dislike the immorality “the burden of government by nincompoops and scoundrels” discussed by your fellow journalist, Mr. Randall, in the article referenced above. He apparently admired something you researched a while ago about that explains the very basis for HPC concern: a high-handed “let them eat cake” government attitude.
    Rather than merely noting the way in which such an irresponsible administration pits one group of citizens against another in this economic clash, why don’t you DO something as the man with the microphone??

    Says Conway’s friend, Mr. Randall, such government is “borne with remarkable stoicism.” Even by Edmund Conway evidently, who has the means to speak up and it would seem the moral obligation as well to create a persistent journalistic breeze in the direction of truth.

    Reality will catch up with all of us and there’s no denying the preponderance of the evidence: much of which Edmund Conway and his own colleagues have highlighted previously.

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  • This withering sarcasm directed to the HPC devotee, written, I suppose by THE Edmund Conway. The Edmund Conway who just warned that the USA may be going bankrupt and unable to support its social systems — as a result of an ageing population that is not so different from that of the UK and even with a significantly smaller national debt than the UK? The SAME Edmund Conway, no doubt who acknowledged that Gordon Brown’s 80 tax hikes would soon top 100? Surely he has read his colleague Jeff Randall’s “Tax and Waste, Government Puts Us All in a Vice” which quotes Edmund Conway as a source on Brown’s vices. I think that Edmund recognizes the complex concerns of the HPC crowd and is being too cute at the moment. [Really Mr. Conway, do you use the word “fisticuffs” in your normal conversation?]

    Right now Conway chooses to look away and act coy — having just purchased a flat himself [Telegraph/ July 8] — even realizing the EA’s description and reality are two entirely different things. He can talk it up from his journalist’s podium all he wants, hoping his flat purchase won’t flatten.

    No, Edmund the HPC contributors don’t aggresively dislike homeowners as you have said from your ivory tower. We aggressively dislike the immorality “the burden of government by nincompoops and scoundrels” discussed by your fellow journalist, Mr. Randall, in the article referenced above. He apparently admired something you researched a while ago about that which explains the very basis for HPC concern: a high-handed “let them eat cake” government attitude.
    Rather than merely noting the way in which such an irresponsible administration pits one group of citizens against another in this economic clash, why don’t you DO something as the man with the microphone??

    Says Conway’s friend, Mr. Randall, such government is “borne with remarkable stoicism.” Even by Edmund Conway evidently, who has the means to speak up and it would seem the moral obligation as well to create a persistent journalistic breeze in the direction of truth.

    Reality will catch up with all of us and there’s no denying the preponderance of the evidence: much of which Edmund Conway and his own colleagues have highlighted previously.

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  • Why is he so suprised that someone who perceives a huge injustice (i.e. being born 5 years too late) is a little bitter about house prices?
    “Nobody – not me, not economists, not even Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England – knows what will happen to house prices”
    So what’s the point writing an article about it!

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  • It makes me laugh how he says “I wouldn’t recommend the site to anyone looking for a balanced take on the market…”

    So where can you get a ballanced view? I can’t think of one place where a ballanced view can be found. What you can however do is look at the arguments, and see if they stand up. As it happens they do stand up, in that prices falling and a recession is very likely.

    I also love it how he says “The Bank has done well at controlling the market so far, but its job is not over.” Have they? The market goes hand in hand with the economy, which is based on every increasing levels of debt (growing over 10% a year). So this will continue into infinity will it? They will be a point when that debt growth slows, and then we will be in recession. Then prices will crash. It’s just a matter of time…

    … unless we actually start producing real wealth, but our government policies are preventing this!

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  • I was intrigued when Mr Conway’s column made it’s appearance in the Telegraph just a few weeks ago, not as you might expect tucked away in the business pages but in the Saturday Property section. Whether this is intended as yet another ploy to try and reassure property owners that all is well or as a semi-subliminal message to them that all might not be so rosy in the years ahead was not too clear at the time, but evidently its more of the former than the latter. He never says much of note in any case.

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  • Freewheeling Franklin says:

    Well I read HPC quite avidly but to be honest I don’t look to it first and foremost for a balanced take on the market – I look to it for moral support from other people who can’t afford to buy a reasonable home either – that and to give myself some sense of hope that one day the market might correct itself.

    Hey – don’t be abashed about it – this site and most of its readers are partisan. Nothing wrong with that. Most people who read HPC do take in the considered opinions of the vested interests and ‘neutral experts’ too – but are hardly swayed by them.

    And I’ve been saying the market is overheated for at least six years – and even I am starting to doubt myslf at the moment. At this rate I may go start ‘theearthisflat.com’ 😛

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  • The response of the ‘ friend of a friend ‘ is the exact opposite opinion of most people I have discussed the house prices with. (Although the anger is identical when I put forward data that suggests there will be a crash.)

    I get the impression that Mr Conway seems to think that by describing his inverted pub conversation, the deep-rooted imbalances in the property market (built up since the mid 90s) can now somehow be gently counselled away into a soft landing.

    ‘he was also convinced that the past decade’s boom had been engineered by homeowners for their own benefit and to the intentional detriment of potential first-time buyers’
    Surely fear & greed still move markets don’t they or has that changed? Why not also discuss BTL Mr Conway?

    ‘many of its users seem to have a positive vendetta against homeowners’
    Contributors to HPC have no need for ‘vendettas’ they are often simply stating economic facts and pointing out the folly of taking out mortgages 6x earnings.

    The article seems a bit short on data ….. something that HPC bloggers are very good at providing.

    ‘ Edmund Conway, the Daily Telegraph’s Economics Editor, offers expert inside knowledge of the housing market’
    Hummm.

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  • The Bald Man says:

    Freewheeling…. overheating can last for 10 years look at the stock market. Recessions can last for teh same time. Look at the housing market in Japan.

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  • Hello, just back from my hols.

    It seems ironic and a shame that the first broadsheet article to mention this site is so shallow as to not be worth commenting on. The Daily Telegraph’s Economics Editor? Come on, one would have at least expected some analysis, some cut and thrust, some debate. Instead we are treated to a ‘my-mate-down-the-pub’ article (literally) with groundbreaking insights like “the more prices rise now, the greater the chance that there could indeed be a crash”. Great. More revealing, however, was his portrayal of the site’s bloggers as a bet-taking cabal. This seems not only trite but inaccurate also. Sure, as Freewheeling says, most (but by no means all) HPC bloggers are partisan, i.e., convinced of the arguments, hopefully after due consideration. However, at least this site – unlike the Daily Telegraph’s Economics pages – is inhabited by people (myself excluded) for whom articulating coherent arguments appears to come naturally.

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  • Spot on TickTock. I often come accross this shock look when I mention a house price crash amongst friends who have BTLs or multiple properties. Why do these people think they are so much more deserving and fail to see how they deprive others of their, right? to own a home.

    I do think that guy should be writing that sort of thing in a blog or at least have the bottle to post in the forum, or has he already? (I keep my viewing to the blog pages only, gotta keep the blood pressure down) His view isn’t very balanced in itself. Something I really hate about reporting, especially on TV and radio, is when a presenter finishes talking with someone, cuts them off, and then carries on ranting about them.

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  • Wannabemigre says:

    You can fool some of the people all of the time, and you can fool all the people some of the time, but……..:-)

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  • The Ditherer says:

    Those who believe that the price of an asset can continue rising and never fall should read ‘A Short History of Financial Euphoria’ by the late John Kenneth Galbraith. This is one of the best books I have ever read and those who are familiar with the contents will know that Galbraith warns:

    A further rule is that when a mood of excitement pervades a market or surrounds an investment prospect, when there is a claim of unique opportunity based on special foresight, all sensible people should circle the wagons; it is the time for caution. (Galbraith, 1994, p.109)

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  • It is a very positive article :

    -it mentions HPC as a possible scenario.
    -It mention Housepricecrash.co.uk
    -it says bust are following booms…

    Nice piece of information for the mass !

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