Thursday, Jul 06, 2006

Academic modelling of housing peaks

ArXiv: Real estate price peaks: a comparitive overview

High energy physics prof turns his attention to modelling house prices, what drives them, and foresees house price crashes worldwide, hitting a low in 2010-11. Key phrase? "an upgoing phase followed by a plateau, has rarely (if ever) been observed"

Posted by Lurker @ 05:40 PM (641 views)
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2 Comments

1. sebastian said...

Dare I say it, this time is different?

Thursday, July 6, 2006 07:03PM Report Comment
 

2. Rickyb said...

This is an interesting article and it's worth downloading the full text. His observation that "While declining interest rates may boost prices and transaction volumes in the upgoing phase, they cannot stop a market from falling once the downturn has occurred" is particulary interesting in the light of the current apparent obsession that interest rates should not be increased.

Friday, July 7, 2006 11:01AM Report Comment
 

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