Wednesday, Jun 28, 2006

Global property booms are coming to an end

Morgan Stanley: Global Property Cycle Turns Down

Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie says that global property booms are coming to an end - and could lead to a world recession as early as 2007 if bubbles start to burst.

Posted by Peter Argot @ 01:32 PM (578 views)
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18 Comments

1. tyrellcorporation said...

I like it when the grand-fromages of the world of finance start talking about HPC too! :)

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 03:02PM Report Comment
 

2. Sloth said...

I believe we wont see a fall in house prices until emigration stops, and working immigrants start to return home. This could easily be caused by a recession.

I wonder will the government of the day have to "get tough" on the large number of non-working immigrants?

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 03:18PM Report Comment
 

3. George Monsoon said...

Sloth, I think the immigrants will not leave this country while the welfare state provides much more than a full time job would provide at home..
e.g. Healthcare, housing and money.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 04:43PM Report Comment
 

4. harold said...

Sloth, Sieg Heil.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 04:43PM Report Comment
 

5. tyrellcorporation said...

Are you the 'thought police' Harold?

Please expand on what you mean by your comment to Sloth?

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 05:04PM Report Comment
 

6. Kpjcomp said...

tyrellcorporation,.

I think Harold was pointing out Sloth's response was very right wing.. :)
But I'm not sure "get tough" on immigrants is the same as "ethnic cleansing".

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 05:23PM Report Comment
 

7. Rimmer said...

Tyrell

What Harold means is he is one of the liberal softies that is not prepared to face the truth, what do we all expect to happen to legal and illegal immigrants if there is a major recession?, what question will our British school leavers be asking Gordon Brown when there are 5 Million plus out of work, the same one i would " why havent i got a job in the country i was born and these immigrants have ".

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 05:33PM Report Comment
 

8. Indiablue19 said...

The only sad implication of this piece is that it alludes to a two year old "soft landing" that has already graced our presence in UK. This IS news.

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 06:49PM Report Comment
 

9. talking rot said...

Harold

Posting a comment that does not further the cause of Liberalism, [Sloth at 1518 hrs], does not necessarily imply the poster is a Fascist or Racist. I seem to recall one of Hitler's first acts was to limit free speech. By your own actions you are associating yourself with the people who you are trying to decry. There is only one way to defeat Fascism and Racism and that is to engage such people in conversation. It soon becomes apparent that they are incapable of reasoned ideas.

All

This article is good news. Providing interest rates rise, the likelihood of a HPC inceases. However, given the current sentiments of the BoE's MPC, I doubt that we will see much of a rise. Uncle Tom, time for your call isn't it?

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 08:04PM Report Comment
 

10. bidin'matime said...

This is a good article and it's a shame that some of the comments have wandered a bit off the subject...

Wednesday, June 28, 2006 10:30PM Report Comment
 

11. harold said...

To be frank, anyone economically naive enough to come out with the 'immigrants are taking all our jobs' argument should think twice about posting sloppy crypto-racist comments.

It's clear that my unsubtle comment touched a raw nerve.

Rimmer, sure you now know that I'm not racist - welcome to morality - but you know nothing about my politics.

This site is about (usually) reasoned, sensible debate about the economic conditions surrounding a possible HPC - let's not make it a forum for ill-considered prejudices.

Thursday, June 29, 2006 12:29AM Report Comment
 

12. tyrellcorporation said...

It's gone off topic Harold but your comment was unwarranted in the extreme. If you are going to effectively call someone a Nazi for what is essentially a fairly innocuous comment from a fellow blogger I think you should maybe think a little more before touching the keyboard. As is now the norm in this country, the left seem to think they have the moral high ground on every social and economic issue - and more worryingly feel they can brow-beat anyone whose ideas differ.

Please be a little more respectful, after all isn't that what you people espouse continuously to the rest of us...

Time to move on to the next HPC issue I think...

Thursday, June 29, 2006 09:49AM Report Comment
 

13. harold said...

Tyrell, don't be silly, I'm not calling anyone a Nazi - it was a knock-about comment/obsevation based on Sloth's prejudiced comment. And once again, you have no idea what my politics are, left or right - don't jump to conclusions.

Thursday, June 29, 2006 09:58AM Report Comment
 

14. Ohhyesitwill said...

Anyone fancy a pint?

Thursday, June 29, 2006 10:57AM Report Comment
 

15. tyrellcorporation said...

Mmmmmm... Time to move on I think...

Thursday, June 29, 2006 11:06AM Report Comment
 

16. inbreda said...

Harold - ignore them. Sloths comment was naive and unintelligent. He must read the News of the World, which, for everyone elses sake, is a perfectly legitimate thing to do. I thought your sieg hiel comment was tongue in cheek and and was a very nice way to point out your disapproval at such ignorant comments.

And Rimmer, when you say " why havent i got a job in the country i was born and these immigrants have ". It might be worth wondering why you should stop at country level. Do you think the Welsh and Scottish should be kept from holding English jobs? What about people from East London getting jobs in the West? What about people from two roads down taking a job in a chippie on your street? Probably best if we all lock ourselves in our houses and never speak to anyone, eh? We were all born on the same planet and if there are more jobs here than there, why do you find it surprising that people come and do those jobs? I can't imagine you are a celt - you probably have norman or saxon ancestry, and so you are in no position to talk about who should be here and who shouldn't.

Now will the racists please let the discussion return to HPC!

Thursday, June 29, 2006 11:30AM Report Comment
 

17. Sloth said...

For the record, I have nothing against working immigrants. My politics are diametrically opposed to National Socialism.

I detest the "welfare" state not immigration. The welfare state subsidising immigration has caused the immigration of net-loss immigrants which has caused the rise of nationalists (such as the socialist BNP (check their economics)).

As I work in The City I can easily see that attracting skilled immigrants has been hugely beneficial to the country.

I live in Balham where there is a huge influx of Poles (which is great for me). I think their immigration is also beneficial.

I am saying that immigration obviously increases demand for housing, therefore until they leave or we build more houses, there will be no crash. If there is a recession, immigrants tend to be more mobile than natives, and will leave, this will further drop demand for houses. Compounding the effect. Having a high percentage of immigrants in your country, could be viewed in the same light as having a high gearing ratio on a company. Great on the way up, bad on the way down.

This idiotic leftwing view that immigration has no effects, and that even studying it's effects is racist, is the first sign that they know the game's up.

Thursday, June 29, 2006 12:00PM Report Comment
 

18. harold said...

Sloth, why didn't you say that in the first place?

Thursday, June 29, 2006 01:04PM Report Comment
 

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