Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Doom'n'gloom talk hits the tabloids

Thisismoney.co.uk (Daily Mail): So how worried should we be?

This article is a little like the Jeff Randall piece in the Torygraph last week, with it's '10 reasons' why we're heading for a fall:
'When one also considers that UK households have built up a 1trillion debt mountain, which is highly sensitive to an interest rate hike of the kind likely to be seen later this year, and the outlook becomes even more worrying.'

Posted by crashedoutandburned @ 10:16 PM (816 views)
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6 Comments

1. bidin'matime said...

Why does this come as no surprise to those of us who frequent this site..?

Tuesday, May 16, 2006 10:39PM Report Comment
 

2. Devil's Advocate said...

Seems like a positive article for those wanting a crash. Anyone have any ideas on the timescale or series of events

Wednesday, May 17, 2006 08:38AM Report Comment
 

3. Caesium said...

idi

this site has a poor record in calling the recession.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006 08:49AM Report Comment
 

4. Caesium9 said...

This site has consistently got it wrong - calling a crash well before it has happened.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006 08:50AM Report Comment
 

5. denzil said...

Know what you mean Bidin'. I read reports like this and it barely even registers. Why? Because it is just no surprise. What really continues to surprise me is how long much longer the general public will continue to treat debt as though it was a game of monopoly.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006 09:33AM Report Comment
 

6. talking rot said...

This article does not bring any surprises to regular HPC readers. The key point is that the article reports risks which MAY or MAY NOT happen. Putting aside debate on validity of measuring inflation by the current CPI method, the CPI reports inflation is low in historical terms and on target. The BoE basis its interest rates on the CPI figures to control inflation and until the CPI rate heads-north, interest rates are unlikely to reach critical mass for debt-ridden UK consumers.

I still dont buy the argument that a few 0.25% Interest Rate rises will cause havoc on the housing market. A minority of people have vast debts and these will suffer but are there sufficient people in this category who are home-owners and who will go bankrupt probably not. FTBs will struggle but lets not forget that FTBs are a MINORITY. Most home owners who bought before the current bubble probably have a few debts but not sufficient to cause them to become bankrupt. This is the big House Price Crash dilemma. We all know what could have if the pigeons come home to roost but they havent roosted yet. There is no sign of a higher CPI today or even tomorrow. The economy is growing at a rate which would have astounded the public during the grim days of the 1970s. Unemployment is low by historical levels. Face it Chaps, NO HPC today or tomorrow.

Sure there are down-side risks on the horizon but if these risks occur, then the facts of the UK economy will change and a HPC might be driven by recession, unemployment and inflation. It hasnt happened yet and many people have entered HPC-fatigue warnings which never happen syndrome.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006 10:38AM Report Comment
 

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