Is It Game Over?

[evetsm]

This economic malaise could and probably will last another 20 years as they convert every last drop of equity into debt to keep the ponzi on life support. See Japan. Japan turned a huge surplus and the largest savings pile in the world into the largest debt in the world in 20 years and counting. And they are still trapped.

Never underestimate the pig headed survival instincts of the financiers.

[dances with sheeple]

This economic malaise could and probably will last another 20 years as they convert every last drop of equity into debt to keep the ponzi on life support. See Japan. Japan turned a huge surplus and the largest savings pile in the world into the largest debt in the world in 20 years and counting. And they are still trapped.

Never underestimate the pig headed survival instincts of the financiers.

We don`t have the huge surplus and huge savings pile though? It won`t be twenty years until our mess falls apart. I`d give it about twenty months

[Quicken]

The game isn't over yet.

My current prediction is game over in 2015, with the election coinciding with doubled-up student debt, Universal Credit, the ongoing annuity squeeze, ongoing Eurozone issues, and Fed tightening. Of course, there could be a crisis before then, but that's my best bet. By then, I should have at least 2xgross salary saved as a deposit. No rush.

I do get angry about how we've been screwed over in this credit bubble, but I always keep some focus on music, sports (hockey and running), friends, family etc.

Q

[dances with sheeple]

The game isn't over yet.

My current prediction is game over in 2015, with the election coinciding with doubled-up student debt, Universal Credit, the ongoing annuity squeeze, ongoing Eurozone issues, and Fed tightening. Of course, there could be a crisis before then, but that's my best bet. By then, I should have at least 2xgross salary saved as a deposit. No rush.

I do get angry about how we've been screwed over in this credit bubble, but I always keep some focus on music, sports (hockey and running), friends, family etc.

Q

Do you see a large and prolonged property crash around then?

[easy2012]

Do you see a large and prolonged property crash around then?

No, but I see prolonged crash of the value of of the pound in your pocket...

[Bloo Loo]

Do you see a large and prolonged property crash around then?

A soft landing is a prolonged SLOW property crash.

[goldbug9999]

We don`t have the huge surplus and huge savings pile though? It won`t be twenty years until our mess falls apart. I`d give it about twenty months

But Japan (more specifically tokyo) had the mother of all real estate booms, I think at one point the paper value of tokyo property was more than the entire US real estate market. This is how they managed to soak up and piss away the gains of decades of being the worlds premier manufacturing economy.

[simon99]

I have to say that I recently bought having given up after 10 years+. I didn't Sell to Rent though, I was a first time buyer. The government schemes and the realization that interest rates aren't going up finished my hopes off.

[Quicken]

Do you see a large and prolonged property crash around then?

Yes. As my sig says, I'm predicting bubble capitulation at 150k in the national price indices (sold prices, not asking). All the factors I listed and more should conspire to push us down to that level.

Psychologically, I think that's a critical point. Looking at the national land reg graph, it'll take us back to mid 2004; the shoulder of the house price mountain. Equally important, it was a level never quite tested in 2009.

So when we get back to 150k (2004), it'll be in the national media that there has been no nominal price increase in a decade. Cue a slide back towards 100k (2002).

That's the way I see it panning out. The current government has laid so many land mines for the next that there will be casualties, but the nuclear factor might be the fed.

If it doesn't pan out this time, well I'm sanguine. I can stay solvent longer than this market can remain irrational.

Q

[Dr Renter]

Perhaps I should stop posting if it annoys you! On second thoughts, why don't you find something else to do with your time you rude son of a bitch!

There are many in a similar position to me on this forum, one posted a few pages back on this thread.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=192096&view=findpost&p=909364924

Do not like criticism, do we? I did not ask you to stop posting, just pointing out that your posts are getting repetitive. And if you thought I was being rude, I'd be interested in how you fare when the real insults start flying.

No, he's very, very touchy. Probably because his STR dream has gone very sour. I'd take what he says with a truck load of salt. He appears to live in a parallel universe where house prices in the south east have been falling for years and his rent hasn't gone up in a decade.

Edited July 28, 2013 by Dr Renter

[dances with sheeple]

No, he's very, very touchy. Probably because his STR dream has gone very sour. I'd take what he says with a truck load of salt. He appears to live in a parallel universe where house prices in the south east have been falling for years and his rent hasn't gone up in a decade.

Can`t talk for Bruce Banner but my rent in central Edinburgh was 350 p.m in `97, and it is 400 p.m now, 350 felt expensive then, because rooms were about £200 p.m, and 400 feels cheap now, although you could probably still get a room somewhere in the city at £200 p.m, but my point is that in the real world (outside London and the VI spin) rents have gone nowhere.

[Bruce Banner]

No, he's very, very touchy. Probably because his STR dream has gone very sour. I'd take what he says with a truck load of salt. He appears to live in a parallel universe where house prices in the south east have been falling for years and his rent hasn't gone up in a decade.

All figures I quote are genuine, give or take a few percent for my privacy. Care to put your money where your mouth is?

[dances with sheeple]

Yes. As my sig says, I'm predicting bubble capitulation at 150k in the national price indices (sold prices, not asking). All the factors I listed and more should conspire to push us down to that level.

Psychologically, I think that's a critical point. Looking at the national land reg graph, it'll take us back to mid 2004; the shoulder of the house price mountain. Equally important, it was a level never quite tested in 2009.

So when we get back to 150k (2004), it'll be in the national media that there has been no nominal price increase in a decade. Cue a slide back towards 100k (2002).

That's the way I see it panning out. The current government has laid so many land mines for the next that there will be casualties, but the nuclear factor might be the fed.

If it doesn't pan out this time, well I'm sanguine. I can stay solvent longer than this market can remain irrational.

Q

And when that happens people who bought realise that their debt is dead money, and others are in no hurry to take on debt for property?

[winkie]

And when that happens people who bought realise that their debt is dead money, and others are in no hurry to take on debt for property?

Yes, people will be in no hurry to take on debt when they see that debt will no longer be making them hypothetically rich.....rich in numbers that is, not in substance .

Edited July 28, 2013 by winkie

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

Yes. As my sig says, I'm predicting bubble capitulation at 150k in the national price indices (sold prices, not asking). All the factors I listed and more should conspire to push us down to that level.

Psychologically, I think that's a critical point. Looking at the national land reg graph, it'll take us back to mid 2004; the shoulder of the house price mountain. Equally important, it was a level never quite tested in 2009.

So when we get back to 150k (2004), it'll be in the national media that there has been no nominal price increase in a decade. Cue a slide back towards 100k (2002).

That's the way I see it panning out. The current government has laid so many land mines for the next that there will be casualties, but the nuclear factor might be the fed.

If it doesn't pan out this time, well I'm sanguine. I can stay solvent longer than this market can remain irrational.

Q

I agree with this. The US economy does behave differently to the UK one, and the approach being taken is different. For example due to various rules/regs the US housing market seems much more of a free market than the UK one.

It became obvious to me some time ago that no UK government is going to let house prices go down the pan for the sake of a few billion or so, especially since it would make them lose the next election and by and large someone else down the line would have to pick up the cost. So in terms of a price crash what I am looking for is a spark that kicks off a reduction in lending (which is the main driver for prices). This is almost certainly going to be a rate rise and since the government are not going to raise rates voluntarily it has to be caused by an external factor. I see this as most likely being a US recovery, based mainly on onshoring production back from the Far East largely due to decreases in energy costs from shale gas/oil exploitation. I think though that this could take 5-10 years to pan out.

The one thing I have seen on here is that ridiculing the statement "it's different this time" is going out of fashion. And quite right too. It's different every time.

[Maynardgravy]

All figures I quote are genuine, give or take a few percent for my privacy. Care to put your money where your mouth is?

Rented same place in Pinner for 7 years. In that time my rent has gone down.

[Bruce Banner]

No, he's very, very touchy. Probably because his STR dream has gone very sour. I'd take what he says with a truck load of salt. He appears to live in a parallel universe where house prices in the south east have been falling for years and his rent hasn't gone up in a decade.

All figures I quote are genuine, give or take a few percent for my privacy. Care to put your money where your mouth is?

I had a feeling of deja vu so I did a search and look what I found..... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=171676&view=findpost&p=3189947

[Bruce Banner]

Rented same place in Pinner for 7 years. In that time my rent has gone down.

You've done better than me. I've had one rent increase (of 2%) over the past seven years .

[ingermany]

My rent for 4br detached is less than in 2001. Cost to buy over same period is slightly up, but only by 10-15%. Midlands.

Much depends on whether the feared boom in HPs really happens. Next 2yrs is critical.

[The Knimbies who say No]

Asking rent for an identical flat to the one I started renting in September 2007 is the same as was paid by me then, so at best rent has been static over nearly 6 years. Likely it could be had for a bit less of course.

Must be some mistake though, a poster here called Brian Hall said that rents rose at 6%/annum, meaning the LL here ought to be charging £815/month rather than £575. If only he knew about this important rule, he could jack up the rent and make a packet.

[dances with sheeple]

Asking rent for an identical flat to the one I started renting in September 2007 is the same as was paid by me then, so at best rent has been static over nearly 6 years. Likely it could be had for a bit less of course.

Must be some mistake though, a poster here called Brian Hall said that rents rose at 6%/annum, meaning the LL here ought to be charging £815/month rather than £575. If only he knew about this important rule, he could jack up the rent and make a packet.

Should have gone on one of them Property Mogul courses, they know all the rules and dodges, not.

Edited July 28, 2013 by dances with sheeple

[Spoony]

Spoony - you are being totally lame, and spouting the guff of a certain bald headed gimp "life on hold"..........If these are your genuine thoughts, rather than somebody suffering a severe head injury, some poor girl has had a close shave.

It was her idea... for me to sell my shared slave box, and for us to buy a big family house with a granny annex for her Mother plus our future child to live in. I have been wanting to move for a long time though as my neighbours are noisy idiots

[Bland Unsight]

Do not like criticism, do we? I did not ask you to stop posting, just pointing out that your posts are getting repetitive. And if you thought I was being rude, I'd be interested in how you fare when the real insults start flying.

You're new here aren't you? If the boy Bruce gave up every time a new wiseacre with a thousand posts and a 'clever' name found the keystroke that enabled MISGUIDED PATRONISING MODE, then his post total wouldn't be quite what it is. With house prices falling in nominal across swathes of the country for five years and counting there are legion Bruce Banners who could come here and post brute facts. They don't because they'd rather count the coin whilst they rip off your ignorant faces. When the truth gets repetitive, does it stop being the truth? And when the truth is ignored, is it no longer worth repeating?

Anyway, in the hope of making a decent contribution to the thread - the comments about the market, gamed or not, being more solvent than the individual are spot on imho. I've always said that we will not see a crash in England until the last bear on this forum buys, and that is proving to be the case.

What? The market can't be insolvent! Only a market participant with liabilities can be insolvent, (meaning they are unable to meet their liabilities as they fall due). What are you talking about?

The rest of it is plainly beyond idiotic. Look at the logical structure - you find a community of posters who are willing profess (behind a wall of anonymity) that house prices will fall. Then you set your line in the sand as to when falls will happen as when the community evaporates. Your 'analysis' is absolutely stark raving bonkers. You are saying that price falls will only happen only when nobody thinks that they will happen, (for clarity, this is the moment when the only investors are people who are willing to bid up prices on the basis that they are people who, on the basis of your explicit assumption, are people who believe that prices will rise from their current level). Your empiricism is bogus, (house prices are falling in nominal across much of the country and have been since 2008). You are just not credible. It's either ignorance or trolling. But if you think that you're going to p!ss off the boy Banner with this kind of lazy trolling, you are in for a disappointment.

TBF if I was the buying type I'd have bought long ago - the whole "banks too big to fail" can be reinterpreted as "mortgages for the average Joe are also too big to fail" and it is now political. Probably has been all this time. People have been calling time on this HPI market for many years and are still waiting, ala the OP.

(Emphasis added)

Holy Christ on a Bicycle!!!!! Either you believe this, in which case you are a special new kind of fool for the Noughties, or you are posting wearing your VI hat, VI pants and VI pyjamas. It was a credit boom. We will now have a credit bust. We ARE now having a credit bust. ZIRP makes it happen slowly, but it still happens and the weakest debtors and the their dependent creditors are picked off one by one. Mortgages that are "too big to fail"? Are having a laugh? Since when did RBS choke on some clownish £300k mortgage? They pick them off one by one. There is a mountain of difference between trying to absorb all the losses and once and picking the meat off the corpse.

My personal solution is to forget the whole FTB/STR nonsense and to just live life and be happy, like other posters on this thread have mentioned. A roof over your head with decent space and heating is only one of the base Maslow needs, perhaps if the OP focuses on the others there could be more happiness?

If you can readily meet your need for food and shelter from your income then does it follow that you should acquiesce without thought, misgivings or protest as circumstance leads to a politically expedient upwards manipulation of the cost of shelter? When do you admit the need to turn your brain on and propose that other courses of action exist? Do you wait till the cost of shelter means that you can't eat, or do you protest at an earlier stage? Perhaps, we should protest only when we can no longer afford to save?

I look forward to your answers.

[dances with sheeple]

It was her idea... for me to sell my shared slave box, and for us to buy a big family house with a granny annex for her Mother plus our future child to live in. I have been wanting to move for a long time though as my neighbours are noisy idiots

Yes, that is always a b*astard. Usually, unless they are hard core gangsters, I just turn the TV against the wall and play my recorded version of Robin Hood (Errol Flynn version, loud music and galloping horses ) until they take the hint.

[dances with sheeple]

You're new here aren't you? If the boy Bruce gave up every time a new wiseacre with a thousand posts and a 'clever' name found the keystroke that enabled MISGUIDED PATRONISING MODE, then his post total wouldn't be quite what it is. With house prices falling in nominal across swathes of the country for five years and counting there are legion Bruce Banners who could come here and post brute facts. They don't because they'd rather count the coin whilst they rip off your ignorant faces. When the truth gets repetitive, does it stop being the truth? And when the truth is ignored, is it no longer worth repeating?

What? The market can't be insolvent! Only a market participant with liabilities can be insolvent, (meaning they are unable to meet their liabilities as they fall due). What are you talking about?

The rest of it is plainly beyond idiotic. Look at the logical structure - you find a community of posters who are willing profess (behind a wall of anonymity) that house prices will fall. Then you set your line in the sand as to when falls will happen as when the community evaporates. Your 'analysis' is absolutely stark raving bonkers. You are saying that price falls will only happen only when nobody thinks that they will happen, (for clarity, this is the moment when the only investors are people who are willing to bid up prices on the basis that they are people who, on the basis of your explicit assumption, are people who believe that prices will rise from their current level). Your empiricism is bogus, (house prices are falling in nominal across much of the country and have been since 2008). You are just not credible. It's either ignorance or trolling. But if you think that you're going to p!ss off the boy Banner with this kind of lazy trolling, you are in for a disappointment.

(Emphasis added)

Holy Christ on a Bicycle!!!!! Either you believe this, in which case you are a special new kind of fool for the Noughties, or you are posting wearing your VI hat, VI pants and VI pyjamas. It was a credit boom. We will now have a credit bust. We ARE now having a credit bust. ZIRP makes it happen slowly, but it still happens and the weakest debtors and the their dependent creditors are picked off one by one. Mortgages that are "too big to fail"? Are having a laugh? Since when did RBS choke on some clownish £300k mortgage? They pick them off one by one. There is a mountain of difference between trying to absorb all the losses and once and picking the meat off the corpse.

If you can readily meet your need for food and shelter from your income then does it follow that you should acquiesce without thought, misgivings or protest as circumstance leads to a politically expedient upwards manipulation of the cost of shelter? When do you admit the need to turn your brain on and propose that other courses of action exist? Do you wait till the cost of shelter means that you can't eat, or do you protest at an earlier stage? Perhaps, we should protest only when we can no longer afford to save?

I look forward to your answers.

Nice rant, I agree with all of that. First stage of protest, if it were possible to get people organised, should be a dead stop to council tax payments, followed by default on loans that are obviously stupid, unpayable, and should never have been given out.