Van Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 It seems to me that Nationwide's last press release was preparing the ground for YoY turning negative very soon. Here is the current dataset: Oct-09/ 162,038 Nov-09/ 162,764 Dec-09/ 162,103 Jan-10/ 163,481 Feb-10/ 161,320 Mar-10/ 164,519 Apr-10/ 167,802 May-10/ 169,162 Jun-10/ 170,111 Jul-10/ 169,347 Aug-10/ 166,507 Sep-10/ 166,757 Oct-10/ 164,381 - Current YoY: 1.445% - Oct-Nov 2009 was 0.45%, even if this month's figures are completely flat, this will bring YoY down below 1%. - Any MoM reading below 1% will bring the YoY% below zero! - Prices were increasing up to June 2010, so I expect the YoY fall to accelerate as we head into the spring More: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11819030 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Nationwide on Monday Halifax on Wednesday Will Christmas come early ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 "Could be there by next week on Nationwide HPI" Not if they can help it . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roost Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Ooooh can we start the predictions thread early! I think we'll see* MoM -0.6% from Nationwide -1.1% from Halifax *These predictions are based on the combined readings of tea leaves & chicken entrails as used by the ForexFactory analysts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypirate Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 "Could be there by next week on Nationwide HPI" Not if they can help it . They are preparing the UK for it - what do you think their announcement earlier this week was all about. Its not going to be very negative, but thats not going to matter... Im sure they'll find something to blame it on - maybe todays snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Nationwide is "sold" prices and Halifax is "asking prices", am I right ? My guess therefore is: Nationwide: -0.9% Halifax: +0.5% Highlighting the increasing gulf between expectations and reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 They are preparing the UK for it - what do you think their announcement earlier this week was all about. Its not going to be very negative, but thats not going to matter... Im sure they'll find something to blame it on - maybe todays snow? My guess, and it's only a guess, is that they'll attempt to retain a feel-good factor over Christmas, when people are at home bored and perhaps discussing moving house, so I think we'll see +0.1% YOY rise until January, then down she goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenubracon Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Nationwide is "sold" prices and Halifax is "asking prices", am I right ? My guess therefore is: Nationwide: -0.9% Halifax: +0.5% Highlighting the increasing gulf between expectations and reality. Aren't they both based on mortgage approvals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Nationwide is "sold" prices and Halifax is "asking prices", am I right ? My guess therefore is: Nationwide: -0.9% Halifax: +0.5% Highlighting the increasing gulf between expectations and reality. No, they are both "sold" prices. Here's a recap of the different indices: Rightmove - asking prices (new instructions only) RICS - +/- balance of Surveyors's reports Nationwide/Halifax - Agreed purchases, based on mortgages approved Land Reg - Completions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cica Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Halifax admits... Its focus on mortgage approvals rather than completed deals means it can never be wholly accurate as some deals may fall through just before completionIt only covers a sector of the market as it is restricted to its own customers Because it is based on mortgages it ignores any cash purchases of property Using the characteristics of a typical house in 1983 as a starting base for the index means the figures will always be skewed. Much has changed in the property market since then, with crashes and massive inflation of prices. Also at the time Halifax had a far stronger base of customers in the North of England. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Halifax admits... Yes, indeed. The only 100% accurate index is the Land Registry, but that is lagged by at least 6 months from where front of the market is. Nevertheless, HF/NW are well established and generally good enough to be used as accurate and accepted barometers of the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cica Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Yes, indeed. The only 100% accurate index is the Land Registry, but that is lagged by at least 6 months from where front of the market is. Nevertheless, HF/NW are well established and generally good enough to be used as accurate and accepted barometers of the market. Cool, makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 (edited) No, they are both "sold" prices. Here's a recap of the different indices: Rightmove - asking prices (new instructions only) RICS - +/- balance of Surveyors's reports Nationwide/Halifax - Agreed purchases, based on mortgages approved Land Reg - Completions Bloo Loo? OK, I'll say it. Mortgage approvals ARE NOT agreed purchases They are not based on SOLD prices Edited November 25, 2010 by MinceBalls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinceBalls Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Cool, makes sense. No it doesn't! Land Registry doesn't contain all properties that are purchased so it is NOT 100% accurate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Hometrack (a smaller but very useful index imo) is already negative YoY: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8100445/UK-house-prices-show-first-year-on-year-fall.html "House prices in England and Wales dipped 0.1pc in October from a year earlier" Here is the Halifax raw data: Oct 2009/ 164,990 Nov 2009/ 167,451 Dec 2009/ 168,763 Jan 2010/ 169,484 Feb 2010/ 166,703 Mar 2010/ 168,433 Apr 2010/ 168,212 May 2010/ 167,287 Jun 2010/ 166,351 Jul 2010/ 167,536 Aug 2010/ 168,124 Sep 2010/ 161,974 Oct 2010/ 164,919 Oct 2009/ 164,990 Oct 2010/ 164,919 By my reckoning that's already YoY negative! Has this been picked up on yet, or have we missed it in their glossed over seaonsal adjustments? Oct 09 - Nov 09 was +1.5%, so as that month falls out of the YoY we will head negative here too! Happy bear days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Does not include auctions/repossessions. Cannot trust the price set out - e.g. so-called 'gifts' or 'cashback' that gets put on the registered price so that the relevant lender's LTV restrictions can be met while conveniently boosting the registered price for the developer and the purchaser. DON'T TRUST THE LAND REGISTRY DATA WHEN LOOKING UP PRICES! Aye, that's true. I believe they were removed a few years ago when things were really bleak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 From Halifax: http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/word/HPI/2010/HousePriceIndexOctober2010.doc Nov 2009/ 167,451 Dec 2009/ 168,763 Jan 2010/ 169,484 As these months fall out of the Halifax YoY figures in the next few months, this index will be turning a nice deep shade of RED!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypirate Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Does not include auctions/repossessions. Cannot trust the price set out - e.g. so-called 'gifts' or 'cashback' that gets put on the registered price so that the relevant lender's LTV restrictions can be met while conveniently boosting the registered price for the developer and the purchaser. DON'T TRUST THE LAND REGISTRY DATA WHEN LOOKING UP PRICES! Repo auctions. I believe that it does include auctions of properties which arent distressed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotMyHouse Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 That chicken's definitely dead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
or in excess of Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 "The answer is a 0.1% increase. Now what is the question?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 "The answer is a 0.1% increase. Now what is the question?" Is the question; How much extra blood rushes to your ***** when you think about Krusty and Fill making the beast with two backs? Actually, that's probably over-generous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pent Up Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Hometrack (a smaller but very useful index imo) is already negative YoY: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/8100445/UK-house-prices-show-first-year-on-year-fall.html "House prices in England and Wales dipped 0.1pc in October from a year earlier" Here is the Halifax raw data: Oct 2009/ 164,990 Nov 2009/ 167,451 Dec 2009/ 168,763 Jan 2010/ 169,484 Feb 2010/ 166,703 Mar 2010/ 168,433 Apr 2010/ 168,212 May 2010/ 167,287 Jun 2010/ 166,351 Jul 2010/ 167,536 Aug 2010/ 168,124 Sep 2010/ 161,974 Oct 2010/ 164,919 Oct 2009/ 164,990 Oct 2010/ 164,919 By my reckoning that's already YoY negative! Has this been picked up on yet, or have we missed it in their glossed over seaonsal adjustments? Oct 09 - Nov 09 was +1.5%, so as that month falls out of the YoY we will head negative here too! Happy bear days. Halifax has been YoY negative for the last two months on the SA figures. Although last month only very slighty. But the Halifax use an average of the last 3 months compared to an average of the same three months the previous year for their yoy figure which is why it's still showing a positive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lepista Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 My guess, and it's only a guess, is that they'll attempt to retain a feel-good factor over Christmas, when people are at home bored and perhaps discussing moving house, so I think we'll see +0.1% YOY rise until January, then down she goes. What he said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Halifax has been YoY negative for the last two months on the SA figures. Although last month only very slighty. But the Halifax use an average of the last 3 months compared to an average of the same three months the previous year for their yoy figure which is why it's still showing a positive. Yes. Now, using the Halifax SA monthly data from HERE, I get the last three months to be: Aug168,124 Sep161,974 Oct164,919 Average: £165,006 And the corresponding months for last year are: Aug160,947 Sept163,294 Oct164,990 Average: £163,077 This gives an annual rise of £1929, or 1.18%, which Halifax have rounded to 1.2%. Now then. Lets assume that in the next release, Halifax say the MoM figure has not moved. Nov is still £164919. What happens to their fancy YoY? 2010: Aug168,124 Sep161,974 Oct164,919 Nov164919 Average: £163937 2009 Aug160,947 Sept163,294 Oct164,990 Nov167451 Average: £165,245 So, if Halifax prices stay the same this month as last, their fancy YoY should give us a drop of £1308, or -0.8%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exiges Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 So, if Halifax prices stay the same this month as last, their fancy YoY should give us a drop of £1308, or -0.8%. Good work. Shame it's going to need another -30% before it really makes much difference :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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