ItsColdUpHere Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) Does anyone else think that 90% of UK prices is pausible? I think its not going to happen, but I've given up arguing. I'm just wondering if he's alone in believing this might happen? ------------------------------ Note: He now claims he didn't mean "average", but his original post was: " In the UK we have to be looking at 60% - 80% falls. I am beginning to think that even 90% might be a bit optimistic. " That looks like averages to me. Edited January 13, 2009 by ItsColdUpHere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grizzly bear Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Does anyone else think this is pausible?I think its not going to happen, but I've given up arguing. I'm just wondering if he's alone in believeing this might happen? BUMP to stop this thread sinking. No, I don't think plausible. Unless decade long deflationary depression etc % drop from peak 30% definately - average house price £140k 40% probably - average house price £120K 50% maybe - average house price £100K 60% possibly - average house price £80K Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Does anyone else think this is pausible?I think its not going to happen, but I've given up arguing. I'm just wondering if he's alone in believeing this might happen? Some areas it is possible. The worst parts of Northern Ireland and any new builds in those areas for instance. Maybe the mining cottages in parts of Wales that used to be 20k per street (or whatever they actually were) But generally, I think that is highly unlikely, since there is utility value in the average house way before you get to 20k. This is assuming that you are thinking in terms of GBP and not some dodgy asset class that coincidentally soars by 60%pa nonsense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worzel Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 (edited) 90% sounds high to me, but in the absence of a money printing frenzy by our friends in power it certainly is possible (especially for hte new builds etc), but excluding those, I cant see 90% falls being anything but hte exception. If we did see 90% falls across the board, I would certainly be hoovering up a few mansions (slight exaggeration). Edited January 13, 2009 by worzel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItsColdUpHere Posted January 13, 2009 Author Share Posted January 13, 2009 If lending remains the way it is for long enough then I see no reason why the lower end of the market (new build flats etc) wouldn't lose 90% as nobody who could get a mortgage would actually want to live in one. The real lower end will lose up to 99%, as in vandalised houses in the east end of Newcastle in the 90's. But thats just selective statistics, and thus meaningless. What about averages over a decent sized sample? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 90% sounds high to me, but in the absence of a money printing frenzy by our friends in power it certainly is possible (especially for hte new builds etc), but excluding those, I cant see 90% falls being anything but hte exception. If we did see 90% falls across the board, I would certainly be hoovering up a few mansions (slight exaggeration). Mansions might be an area that suffer excessively as well. 20 million quid for a house down to 2 million in a firesale? Not impossible I would say. But again this is the exception not the rule... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 If it was indexed to the year 1999 as 100 then maybe 90% fall. Best I could do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Improbable but not impossible. Another way of saying that they could in a truly horrific situation beyond our worst nightmares but aren't likely to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worzel Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Mansions might be an area that suffer excessively as well.20 million quid for a house down to 2 million in a firesale? Not impossible I would say. But again this is the exception not the rule... True, I was thinking more of a £2m mansion (more a big house really) down to £200k. A £20m mansion would be a bit costly to run whether it had 90% off or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 True, I was thinking more of a £2m mansion (more a big house really) down to £200k. A £20m mansion would be a bit costly to run whether it had 90% off or not. Yeah I would definitely buy one of those, although probably would have bought the 1 million pound one for 500k way before that point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrabus Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Does anyone else think that 90% of UK prices is pausible?I think its not going to happen, but I've given up arguing. I'm just wondering if he's alone in believing this might happen? ------------------------------ Note: He now claims he didn't mean "average", but his original post was: " In the UK we have to be looking at 60% - 80% falls. I am beginning to think that even 90% might be a bit optimistic. " That looks like averages to me. The pound will tank first ,and wil be worth 90% less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webchat Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Surely the shortage of housing supply in the UK will balance the house price decline more than almost anywhere else in the world. I can understand the US facing severe price depression, they have huge amounts of land available for new builds and plenty of housing anyway. In the UK I think the average house price drop will be about 40% top to bottom. According to http://propertysnake.co.uk, where I live a 4 bed semi is currently averaging £292,000 asking price (no idea what the selling price is though). Last year I believe they were all around about £375,000, so that's a 23% or so fall. So I think roundabout £230,000 is where the asking prices will bottom out here in 2009/10 (giving a further 22% reduction) or a total price drop in the region of 40%. And I think that's not bad actually as it means the 2 bed flats that were going for £150,000 will be about £90,000, or about 3.5 times a salary of £25K. If they fell further than that wouldn't they get snapped up because they are affordable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hev Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Cant see it myself but......................... I could be wrong!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huw Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 90% sounds high to me, but in the absence of a money printing frenzy by our friends in power it certainly is possible (especially for hte new builds etc), but excluding those, I cant see 90% falls being anything but hte exception. If we did see 90% falls across the board, I would certainly be hoovering up a few mansions (slight exaggeration). You and me both ... assuming we manage to preserve the value of our savings during the events leading to such falls (not in the banking system, are they? ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leveller Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Interestrateripoff Thinks That Prices In The Uk Could Lose 90%, interestrateripoff thinks that prices in the UK could lose 90% So? . . . There's already a thread 'comp' on 2009 price drops, why not just start a peak to trough one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uptherebels Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Nothing is impossible anymore, given what is happening around the world. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50%deposit Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 we can pray. and hope. 90% would be ideal wake me up when were there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leveller Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 BUMP to stop this thread sinking.No, I don't think plausible. Unless decade long deflationary depression etc % drop from peak 30% definately - average house price £140k 40% probably - average house price £120K 50% maybe - average house price £100K 60% possibly - average house price £80K I'm not sure I can choose between average 66.6 % drop, or average house price £66.6k. Actually, 3 more 6 month drops of 13% each time on top of what's already dropped. My gut says I'm with your maybe possibly, but more possibly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leveller Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 BUMP to stop this thread sinking.No, I don't think plausible. Unless decade long deflationary depression etc % drop from peak 30% definately - average house price £140k 40% probably - average house price £120K 50% maybe - average house price £100K 60% possibly - average house price £80K I'm not sure I can choose between average 66.6 % drop, or average house price £66.6k. Actually, 3 more 6 month drops of 13% each time on top of what's already dropped. My gut says I'm with your maybe possibly, but more possibly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Y-QUERK Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I reckon 120% off peak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LuckyOne Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 I reckon 120% off peak. Great. So I get the house for free and you will pay my council tax for the next 40 years. Not a bad deal. Let me get back to you on that. I might want 50 years of council tax ....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sillybear2 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Not really, because rents are still "high", so if there were returns like that available you'd see billions in unleveraged international funds coming to the UK buying everything up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
worzel Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Not really, because rents are still "high", so if there were returns like that available you'd see billions in unleveraged international funds coming to the UK buying everything up. And when they did, they would add the number to GDP and use it as proof that our economy was growing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikthe20 Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Surely the shortage of housing supply in the UK will balance the house price decline more than almost anywhere else in the world. I can understand the US facing severe price depression, they have huge amounts of land available for new builds and plenty of housing anyway. Please prove this shortage of housing for me as all I see is a market flooded with properties that aren't selling. Neither do I see streets full of homeless people. Also, when I fly over the UK, I see massive amounts of green. There will IMO be some properties that do sell at 90% off peak value - probably new builds that end up becoming sink estates and sold in a pub for cash (there are stories of such goings-on from the last crash). I think it perfectly feasible that a flat, sorry "luxury apartment", that sold to a gullible fool in 2007 for £200k gets sold after repossession and at the bottom of the market for £20k (or the equivalent in real terms). Will be very unusual, but definitely plausible IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alistair darlings mole Posted January 13, 2009 Share Posted January 13, 2009 Does anyone know if the average wage of the population is falling? I think this is key how much houses will fall by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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