tpbeta Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 (edited) Media manipulation. You tit If I recall the famous bubble graph, media hyping of a bubble comes shortly before it inflates to high heaven, not shortly before it deflates. That said, I work in the media so I know that most journalists are (a) home owners and ( lazy/overworked, and so are naturally disposed to publishing VI propaganda, whether co-ordinated or not. And as they implicitly assume all their readers and viewers share their attitudes, they favour 'good news' stories about house prices. And as what they publish then comes true, it makes them feel justified in using those sources in the first place. Set against that, journalists also like nothing better than a huge disaster to report. So when things start to get bad again for HPI, you can rely on the media to make it look really bad. Edited August 28, 2009 by tpbeta Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 Not true...US GDP is to go in +gdp for this quarter and Japan is already +ve...Germany (3rd largest economy) has +ve gdp for the last qrt as well... China and India have 6% + expected to be 10%+ by end of year..... orders in US are up Confidence around the world is up ...ROLL on 2010! I really hope these type of posters are playing wind-up, because if they are being serious what hope have we got. christ, the UK is so thick it's unreal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphmalph Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 I really hope these type of posters are playing wind-up, because if they are being serious what hope have we got.christ, the UK is so thick it's unreal. When you are proved wrong I hope you are man enough to come on here and take it after just calling people thick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryWeston Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 Annual Price change -11.7% Why do the bulls think the crash is over ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 When you are proved wrong I hope you are man enough to come on here and take it after just calling people thick. no probs. you have my word on that. I just can't believe that after ALL that's happened people are listening to the VI stats/data/figures etc. I used to spend ages discussing & disecting stuff, haven't got a problem doing it now for posters who I think are genuine, but come on, people really believe that the recession (depression I think) is over ? I have never had a problem stating that I got something wrong, but it's only happened once on here, 1 incorrect black day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphmalph Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 no probs.you have my word on that. I just can't believe that after ALL that's happened people are listening to the VI stats/data/figures etc. I used to spend ages discussing & disecting stuff, haven't got a problem doing it now for posters who I think are genuine, but come on, people really believe that the recession (depression I think) is over ? I have never had a problem stating that I got something wrong, but it's only happened once on here, 1 incorrect black day. Ok, But unless we get another Lehmans or Bear Sterns, the worst is almost certainly over. I am not saying boom times again but depression is off the cards and the prospect of another generation of Okies may not be on us. Unless Labour get elected again and tell Merv to print more money because it is easy. It will be a hard slog out of recession for the UK and the problem is the QE money. But at least ours has an average of 14 years to maturity whereas Bernakes has an average of 4 years to maturity. Oh Dear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foa4 Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 (edited) Annual Price change -11.7%Why do the bulls think the crash is over ? We're on the upturn from the biggest recession known to us!! The HPC is over whether you like it or not Neither am I am not saying that prices will go up significantly in the next 3 years or so - max of 10 % Those who beleived that prices would be crashing 40-90% - hope you have woken up without to much of a wet hand ! ROLL ON 2010 !! Edited August 28, 2009 by foa4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foa4 Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 (edited) no probs.you have my word on that. I just can't believe that after ALL that's happened people are listening to the VI stats/data/figures etc. I used to spend ages discussing & disecting stuff, haven't got a problem doing it now for posters who I think are genuine, but come on, people really believe that the recession (depression I think) is over ? I have never had a problem stating that I got something wrong, but it's only happened once on here, 1 incorrect black day. Depression ? Are you for real ? Some people are clueless - look up the economic meaning of depression fool...we are no where near one...I work at the cutting edge industry which saw the oncoming recesssion in late 2006...and now I can see the upturn with increased orders ...increased confidence (and this is 9/10th of any prospect of what happens).... Roll on 2010 !! Edited August 28, 2009 by foa4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 When you are proved wrong I hope you are man enough to come on here and take it after just calling people thick. im with grumpy. weeks looking at GDP figures and seeing that they are ONLY up because 1: government spend and 2: imports and exports down...the upturn is entirely manufactured by the 2trn promised as BROWN encouraged global, unified stimulus. Of course its had an effect, but once the wind has blown out, and it wont be long...whats left...? well the rest of the crash Im afraid. otherwise,the world is going to go soviet and soon crash to anarchy and mafia rule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foa4 Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 im with grumpy.weeks looking at GDP figures and seeing that they are ONLY up because 1: government spend and 2: imports and exports down...the upturn is entirely manufactured by the 2trn promised as BROWN encouraged global, unified stimulus. Of course its had an effect, but once the wind has blown out, and it wont be long...whats left...? well the rest of the crash Im afraid. otherwise,the world is going to go soviet and soon crash to anarchy and mafia rule. You are so missing the point - the government gave a helping hand and all indicators showing that main sectors are improving and will lead to increased gdp without to much further aid next year. Roll on 2010 !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 Sales Volumes England and Wales May 2008 65,023Sales Volumes England and Wales May 2009 42,699 Also the number of properties that sold for over £1M decreased from 453 to 242 A better comparison would be to also include figures from 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzzardo Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 We're on the upturn from the biggest recession known to us!!The HPC is over whether you like it or not Neither am I am not saying that prices will go up significantly in the next 3 years or so - max of 10 % Those who beleived that prices would be crashing 40-90% - hope you have woken up without to much of a wet hand ! ROLL ON 2010 !! ERIC... Take your meds and go for a lie down. It's just a bull trap. You don't live in Maidstone. You are not yet sexually self-sufficient. YOU HAVEN'T WOKEN UP AS SIBLEY.... There. That's better..... B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryWeston Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 The HPC is over whether you like it or not I think you will find that it isnt over, not by a long way, roll on 2010 and another -11.7 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 You are so missing the point - the government gave a helping hand and all indicators showing that main sectors are improving and will lead to increased gdp without to much further aid next year.Roll on 2010 !! you have fallen for the official line ....figures are meaningless when they do not reflect reality. Oh good the car is doing 70mph....sadly it is off the road and heading down a ravine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 "The housing market is dependent upon one single factor when you come to look at the bottom line and put aside the hype. That is, the ability of people to pay. With a rapidly deteriorating employment situation coupled with government debt that will lead to higher taxes and interest rates as soon as the stimulus efect has worn out the result is inevitable. I would expect to see a rapid descent in house values before Christmas and would suggest that 2010 will be disastrous for those who are forced to sell." I have to agree. * ________________________ * Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 "The housing market is dependent upon one single factor when you come to look at the bottom line and put aside the hype. That is, the ability of people to pay. With a rapidly deteriorating employment situation coupled with government debt that will lead to higher taxes and interest rates as soon as the stimulus efect has worn out the result is inevitable. I would expect to see a rapid descent in house values before Christmas and would suggest that 2010 will be disastrous for those who are forced to sell."I have to agree. * ________________________ * except....the banks are buying their own debts with shell companies.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 Ok, But unless we get another Lehmans or Bear Sterns, the worst is almost certainly over. I am not saying boom times again but depression is off the cards and the prospect of another generation of Okies may not be on us. Unless Labour get elected again and tell Merv to print more money because it is easy. It will be a hard slog out of recession for the UK and the problem is the QE money. But at least ours has an average of 14 years to maturity whereas Bernakes has an average of 4 years to maturity. Oh Dear. sept 15th apparently could be the start of the real fun'n'games. Also October following on from that. in no particular order: US Commercial real estate collapse's due to lack of available credit & more bank failures. The biggest reset of ARM's happen in 2010 iirc 48 US states won't be able to balance the books in Sept apparently. Bond auctions start failing & in the morning of sept 15th apparently the COMEX hitmen cometh in force. Chinese massively leveraged economy contracts very sharply, starting a banking crisis and panic selling of the dollar or else launch a financial attack to start a collapse by dumping the dollar demoninated asset's they are holding. then there's the credit card collapse. general huge inflationary pressures due to the QE. there are more elephant's if you wish....... global food crisis Oil will be well over $100 p/b in 2010 (I think we will see $150p/B) all this without war remember or any additional conflict's (let's hope these don't happen obviously) & you say all is over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 Depression ? Are you for real ? Some people are clueless - look up the economic meaning of depression fool...we are no where near one...I work at the cutting edge industry which saw the oncoming recesssion in late 2006...and now I can see the upturn with increased orders ...increased confidence (and this is 9/10th of any prospect of what happens)....Roll on 2010 !! thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man-returns Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 im with grumpy.weeks looking at GDP figures and seeing that they are ONLY up because 1: government spend and 2: imports and exports down...the upturn is entirely manufactured by the 2trn promised as BROWN encouraged global, unified stimulus. Of course its had an effect, but once the wind has blown out, and it wont be long...whats left...? well the rest of the crash Im afraid. otherwise,the world is going to go soviet and soon crash to anarchy and mafia rule. yup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneyfornothing Posted August 28, 2009 Share Posted August 28, 2009 QUOTE (Bloo Loo @ Aug 28 2009, 08:34 PM) im with grumpy. weeks looking at GDP figures and seeing that they are ONLY up because 1: government spend and 2: imports and exports down...the upturn is entirely manufactured by the 2trn promised as BROWN encouraged global, unified stimulus. Of course its had an effect, but once the wind has blown out, and it wont be long...whats left...? well the rest of the crash Im afraid. otherwise,the world is going to go soviet and soon crash to anarchy and mafia rule. One other important aspect is world over, connsumption and spending has been brought forward into the present - so guess what happens in the period from where this consumption has been advanced .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilroy Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 You are so missing the point - the government gave a helping hand and all indicators showing that main sectors are improving and will lead to increased gdp without to much further aid next year.Roll on 2010 !! Define "too much further aid". THe gov has thrown 20% of GDP at the problem; business investment is down 18%, income tax is down 15% and corp tax down 30% (?). Any questions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 Sales volumes averaged 35,848per month from February to May 2009. this interests me greatly, as approvals were higher than this and cash sales added about a third more....where are all the other sales? Haven't been around much this week house full of visitors but just wanted to say that this is what First Rung said in June or July . First Rung:UK house prices (asking) have stopped their recent 'dead cat bounce' according to Miles Shipside and his team at Rightmove. Estate agents now have on average seventy properties each on their books, and are only selling ten per month according to RICS... However, this RICS contention is not supported by recorded data. With only 35,000 property sales a month, according to Land Registry, and the head count of agents being circa the same this would suggest that agents are in fact only selling on average one property per month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sybil13 Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 Get a grip! This is not new news so why so despondant? I don't understand why the LR figures would do anything to upset you when we all know they lag behind the other indicies by a few months and that the other indicies were showing these kinds of rises a few months ago. We are essentially looking at old news which the media grab hold of and print as if it's a new revelation. As I have said and many others say, if this is still happening in January 2010 then it's time to think about leaving the country. I don't think it will be and nothing thus far has made me think the housing market is in a long term hyper inflationary spiral (because 1.7% p/m IS hyperinflation). Haven't got time to go back and find post to which you responded but will just add to yours an image provided by Dr Bubb, whether you agree with Dr B or not I thought the images and post is well worth reflection .... HPC Link Many HPCers are "stuck in the crowd" and influenced heavily by the resurgent mania around them.(Maybe it is easier for me to be detached from it, living here in Hong Kong - we have our own manias here.) This will die. And the higher the sentiment swings, the bigger the disappointment and disillusion when it (eventually) swings back the other way. When prices are speeding downwards in a few months time, after the rug pull, I will remind people that the very painful next stage of the crash, would not have been fully possible without the huge surge in false hopes that we are seeing now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEO72 Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 It frustrates me that so many on here are arguing the toss about the data, or about 'vested interests' selectively reporting things, a reality check is needed: There is a finite pool of individuals with deposits sizeable enough to make it worth buying in the current climate, this coupled with a temporary shortage of homes for sale is driving prices up - even those with a 'vested interest' acknowledge this. THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE (repeat 10 times) Mortgage availablity is NOWHERE NEAR peak levels, liar loans are no longer available, 10X income mortgages are no longer available, wholesale markets are closed - so without even getting into the effects of interest rate rises or increasing unemployment this will not continue. Furthermore, as prices rise, so will the supply of houses coming onto the market, thus balancing supply/demand. This is not rocket science!! At best, prices manage to remain at roughly this level. At worst, prices keep on falling - realistically no one knows by how much or over what time period. But go ahead and pile in if you are worried about missing the boat... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bateman Posted August 29, 2009 Share Posted August 29, 2009 THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE (repeat 10 times) Why is not sustainable? Why can't the market operate at these levels? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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