‘Bumper’ U.k. Holiday To Lift Marks & Spencer Profit Forecasts

[Deckard]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUKsi_Upa7L4&pos=5

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- At a Harvey Nichols holiday store in northern England, shoppers are taking little notice of the country’s longest recession on record. They’re snapping up the luxury retailer’s 200-pound ($323) food gift baskets instead.

“It’s greatly exceeded expectations,” general manager Iain Mackenzie said of the 2,000 square-foot (186 square-meter) outlet in Manchester’s Trafford shopping center. Harvey Nichols, known for its flagship London luxury department store, has to send a truckload of new stock to the shop every day, he said.

U.K. retailers can expect “bumper Christmas sales” as Britons start to dispel 18 months of concern about the economy, according to a study published this week by Datamonitor Group. About 70 percent of the country’s consumers plan to spend more than normal, the study found. With fewer discounts being offered before the holiday, analysts say profit estimates for store owners such as Marks & Spencer Group Plc may have to rise.

“Undoubtedly people are spending more and throwing off the shackles they had earlier in the year,” Andrew Parkinson, general manager of the Bluewater shopping mall in Kent, southeast England, said by phone. Gifts, jewelry and catering are doing “tremendously well,” he said.

According to Datamonitor, 16 percent of Britons now say they can see early signs of economic recovery, compared with 9 percent in June. The researcher conducts a monthly survey of about 300 consumers in each of 19 countries.

‘More Optimistic’

“U.K. consumers have become more optimistic about their spending because they believe we’ve seen the worst of the recession,” said Annabel Gorringe, lead analyst at Datamonitor.

John Lewis Partnership Plc, the U.K.’s biggest department- store owner, said yesterday that sales at the chain rose 15 percent in the week ended Dec. 12, with growth accelerating to more than 16 percent in the following four days.

At the Bluewater mall, Parkinson said he expects the highest Christmas sales in two years, with revenue likely to be up by as much as 5 percent on last year.

“A healthy December 2009 should deliver forecast upgrades,” for U.K. retailers’ earnings, said Rod Whitehead, retail analyst at Deutsche Bank AG in London. He estimates total non-food same- store sales will rise by 4 percent in December, compared with an 8 percent decline for the same month last year.

Morgan Stanley analysts say increases to profit estimates of about 10 percent will be “widespread” for retailers in January, helped by stronger sales, reductions in inventory and less discounting. Marks & Spencer, the U.K.’s largest clothing retailer, and smaller rival Next Plc are the first publicly traded retailers scheduled to report Christmas sales on Jan. 6.

Good As It Gets

Christmas may be as good as it gets for retailers. Value added tax will rise to 17.5 percent from 15 percent in January, while possible interest-rate hikes and higher income taxes next year mean the rebound in consumer spending probably won’t last, according to Nick Coulter, an analyst at Numis Securities.

“A number of negatives are out there,” Coulter said. “A lot of the good news is already priced into the stocks.”

U.K. retail stocks rallied in 2009 as consumer confidence rose to the highest in 1 1/2 years and lower mortgage repayments prompted Britons to make purchases. The 18-member FTSE 350 General Retailers Index has risen 69 percent since Jan. 1, compared with a 22 percent gain by the benchmark FTSE 100 Index.

“Investors should sell given that we believe upgrades are now expected whereas the risk of negative same-store sales growth excluding value added tax is now,” said Caroline Gulliver an analyst at Execution Ltd. in London. She has an “underweight” rating on U.K. general retailers.

Christian Audigier

In Manchester, Harvey Nichols’ Mackenzie says 60-pound bottles of Christian Audigier champagne wrapped in signature tattoo designs are flying off the shelves at the luxury chain’s so-called pop-up store. The seasonal outlet, which opened in November and won’t close until at least the turn of the year, has already run out of 30-pound Christmas breakfast giftboxes offering tea, coffee, clotted cream biscuits and ‘lashings of preserves.’ No discounts are being offered, compared with 25 percent off promotions offered at stores last year.

“It’s appealing to a market looking for stocking fillers and gifts for friends and family,” Mackenzie said. The new store has been “very exciting.”

As good as it gets, flying off the shelves, bumper sales...

Is this a wrong copy and paste job from a 2006 article?

Edited December 18, 2009 by VoteWithYourFeet

[Bloo Loo]

went to look at hampers on Ocado....all the expensive stuff gone two weeks ago.

still, if you dont make much of the high end goods, then it takes fewer people to create a shortage.

saw a nice outfit for Mrs loo on Agent provocatuer....around £1600 for a basque.

saw the same in George for a tenner.

[Wires 74]

Couldn`t move in Manchester City Centre last weekend -place had gone mad - someones getting some money from somewhere ...

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

I've never seen the shops so busy here in west wales - it appears that the masses have gone completely crazy.

[Bloo Loo]

EVERYONE has 10 presents to buy.

do you really expect the shops NOT to be heaving?

[interestrateripoff]

I've never seen the shops so busy here in west wales - it appears that the masses have gone completely crazy.

One last blowout?

[Bloo Loo]

One last blowout?

I hear prostitutes are very busy...the reason sounded very similar.

[SarahBell]

It was John Lewis this morning on bbc breakfast hoping for a bumper Christmas. Buy your TVs now to avoid the vat rise.

[PricedOutNative]

Most people have remained unaffected by the macro economic issues that the media fill their sensationalist pages with.

[PunK BeaR]

Maybe people are just going to the shops to soak up some of that Xmas shopping insanity atmosphere, without actually buying very much.

[iLegallyBlonde]

M&S for the past 3 years have had 20% off days leading up to Christmas - around Late November - no sign this year - a lot of people are waiting for the bargains but they haven't materialised yet, i guess the stores learnt last year and haven't ordered as much stock.

[deflation]

Most people have remained unaffected by the macro economic issues that the media fill their sensationalist pages with.

A friend of mine has been in retail supply for 30+ years. His explanation is that there isn't really a shortage of most things, it's just that retailers are terrified of being left with mountains of unsold stuff.

They can't get credit to stockpile goods, and there is no trust amongst suppliers and retailers that they won't pocket the money and go 'bump' in Jan, so they won't give even 30 days credit in some cases, let alone 45 or 60.

Cash is king again..

Edited - typos.

Edited December 18, 2009 by deflation