Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

The Euro Is Getting A Rest For A Few Days !


Recommended Posts

by the 14 jan the euro pound will be 1=1 or very close to it..get over it people the pound is not going to go £1=1.50 euro any time soon.a couple of good day's for the pound people are jumping up and down.. :lol::lol::lol: give me a break !!

the B.O.E is going to lower interst rates faster the euro zone rates..that will happen 8 jan so sit tight enjoy the ride if your in the euro if not bad luck !!

i agree i give it week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 109
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

RE: running the printers

Although there are some relatively sound economies in the Eurozone, I'm always wondering about some of them. Like Italy loves a bit of devaluation, and I'm surprised Ireland hasn't had a coronary yet.

Although parity is certainly a high possibility, my cynical brain wonders where the wheels will fall off where no-one is looking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha love the OP, whats wrong your predictions are wrong, never mind the Euro was always over-valued the prove is starting to unfold.

At some point you need to see a bottom in all markets, id say over xmas was the bottom for Sterling.

I'd say it's been a bit of both for the last few years. The £ at 1.46€ was way too high - but good for me as I cashed in quite a bit of my sterling at that price ;)

The £ at 1.25 is probably near it's true value in terms of what goods/services you can buy with it. Maybe 1.30€ the upper limit?

I'm only talking as a punter who lives in France, earns a lot of his income in £'s and visits/buys in UK/Euroland quite often....not just a twice a year tourist.

At the current parity level, the £ is obviously too cheap but this devaluation is a favoured tool of successive UK govts since the 1960's. Always do it when the brown stuff hits the fan and given that there's a lot of it about this time, then it could be the poor old £ will be be battered(devalued) longer than the usual 12-18months?

Whilst we keep hearing that the current rate is great for our exporters, the importers are getting hammered. And ask any UK manager who is trying to buy services from the Eurozone today what he thinks of the rate? The Eurozone countries ain't daft.....if they were charging X euros per day for a service, they're now pricing in the rate drop................

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say it's been a bit of both for the last few years. The £ at 1.46€ was way too high - but good for me as I cashed in quite a bit of my sterling at that price ;)

The £ at 1.25 is probably near it's true value in terms of what goods/services you can buy with it. Maybe 1.30€ the upper limit?

I'm only talking as a punter who lives in France, earns a lot of his income in £'s and visits/buys in UK/Euroland quite often....not just a twice a year tourist.

At the current parity level, the £ is obviously too cheap but this devaluation is a favoured tool of successive UK govts since the 1960's. Always do it when the brown stuff hits the fan and given that there's a lot of it about this time, then it could be the poor old £ will be be battered(devalued) longer than the usual 12-18months?

Whilst we keep hearing that the current rate is great for our exporters, the importers are getting hammered. And ask any UK manager who is trying to buy services from the Eurozone today what he thinks of the rate? The Eurozone countries ain't daft.....if they were charging X euros per day for a service, they're now pricing in the rate drop................

How much is a big mac in Paris/Brussels these days. How does it compare to the cost in London?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RE: running the printers

Although there are some relatively sound economies in the Eurozone, I'm always wondering about some of them. Like Italy loves a bit of devaluation, and I'm surprised Ireland hasn't had a coronary yet.

Although parity is certainly a high possibility, my cynical brain wonders where the wheels will fall off where no-one is looking.

Well, as soon as Brown is removed.... it's hard to digest his plans, feels like true communism at times, but if, eventually, the comparative, intrinsic advantages of anglo-saxon capitalism play out w/o too much of state intervention, Britain will get out of the mess less bruised than much of eurozone. People seem to ignore the importance of flexibility, not least the ability to re-allocate 'labour' quickly and w/o enormous transaction costs, or the benefits of the devaluation of a currency. If Brown is not allowed to borrow as much as he probably dreams of, Britain ought to get out of the mess in a much better shape than eurozone over medium-to-long run. That'd be owing to letting market principles work here more than in Europe. There'll be a lot of pain there, and it is not clear to me at all that British (private sector's) debt binging will eventually prove a greater undoing than the more rigid labour and financial market or difficult monetary policy of the eurozone. I'd rather bet on the collapse of eurozone the way we know it if we are in for a decade long depression.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

and I'm surprised Ireland hasn't had a coronary yet.

I was there yesterday, and it has. 9.95 for breakfast at Cork airport? No, I did not have one. I just noticed the price. Also noticed while killing time in the shop there, that Apple i pod touch 8GB thingy was 220 euro. I think it's about £160 in the UK. I know it's a piece of [email protected], but again just noticed the price difference. If you live in Ireland, and you wanted something like a camera, x box, PS3 or whatever, you could fly to the UK to get it. Even with the cost of a flight, you would still save a lot of money.

The shops in the North ( of the Republic) must be dead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, as soon as Brown is removed.... it's hard to digest his plans, feels like true communism at times, but if, eventually, the comparative, intrinsic advantages of anglo-saxon capitalism play out w/o too much of state intervention, Britain will get out of the mess less bruised than much of eurozone. People seem to ignore the importance of flexibility, not least the ability to re-allocate 'labour' quickly and w/o enormous transaction costs, or the benefits of the devaluation of a currency. If Brown is not allowed to borrow as much as he probably dreams of, Britain ought to get out of the mess in a much better shape than eurozone over medium-to-long run. That'd be owing to letting market principles work here more than in Europe. There'll be a lot of pain there, and it is not clear to me at all that British (private sector's) debt binging will eventually prove a greater undoing than the more rigid labour and financial market or difficult monetary policy of the eurozone. I'd rather bet on the collapse of eurozone the way we know it if we are in for a decade long depression.

BRAVO!!!

Labour market rigidity is the EZ's Achilles' heel.

In an upturn, it doesn't really matter - but in a recession/depression like the one we just entered, this rigidity simply KILLS BUSINESSES, big and small.

Keep selling the euro, the party is over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How much is a big mac in Paris/Brussels these days. How does it compare to the cost in London?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Mac_Index

Don't know about the Mac, but coffee shops have become dearer in, say, the euro-pegged Baltic countries than in London. It makes no economic sense at all. In fact, I am hearing people are scrambling to book Ryanair to London from various parts of Europe as they cannot often believe how 'cheap' London has become (ignoring real estate for the time being). OK, not so much today with EUR/GBP @ 0.9120 as I write, but still.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't know about the Mac, but coffee shops have become dearer in, say, the euro-pegged Baltic countries than in London. It makes no economic sense at all. In fact, I am hearing people are scrambling to book Ryanair to London from various parts of Europe as they cannot often believe how 'cheap' London has become (ignoring real estate for the time being). OK, not so much today with EUR/GBP @ 0.9120 as I write, but still.

Yep!

Too bad the sheeple/shoeshine boys who bought euros at 0.97 can't even spell ARBITRAGE, let alone understand the concept :lol:

Edited by VoteWithYourFeet
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't know about the Mac, but coffee shops have become dearer in, say, the euro-pegged Baltic countries than in London. It makes no economic sense at all. In fact, I am hearing people are scrambling to book Ryanair to London from various parts of Europe as they cannot often believe how 'cheap' London has become (ignoring real estate for the time being). OK, not so much today with EUR/GBP @ 0.9120 as I write, but still.

The pound falls 15% against the Euro and suddenly a Latvian Latte's less than London's?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The pound falls 15% against the Euro and suddenly a Latvian Latte's less than London's?

you are missing the point dude: Latvian latte is now MORE expensive than London's in relative terms ...

also, peak to trough the £ lost over 40% against the euro in just over a year (0.68 to 0.98).

Ask yourself: is this justified? How much UK bad news relative to the EZ has already been discounted?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

by the 14 jan the euro pound will be 1=1 or very close to it..get over it people the pound is not going to go £1=1.50 euro any time soon.a couple of good day's for the pound people are jumping up and down.. :lol::lol::lol: give me a break !!

the B.O.E is going to lower interst rates faster the euro zone rates..that will happen 8 jan so sit tight enjoy the ride if your in the euro if not bad luck !!

I tend to agree with the opening poster, have been expecting this pull back for some time but I am sure normal service will soon be resumed. To those of you who are stating or intimating that the collapse of sterling is in some way planned/controlled by the UK government, well, you must be deluded.

I accept that the eurozone has some major problems but I firmly believe the UK is staring into the economic abyss. Currency strength is all relative, I predict parity by March, £1 = 0.8 Euro by end of 2009.

PS I have no position other than a UK pension fund (deferred) that is being crushed.

Hob

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the Nationwide had been close to the expected fall, the Euro would be falling even faster. If the

Eurozone has to cut interest rates because inflation is too low then the BOE might not have to

cut as much because Sterling being stronger might help cut the price of imports.

But the BOE is suppsed to be long term so I don't know if this matters as much, seeing as Sterling

trade weighted is so very weak it might.

This is why I think Euro will get a bit weaker as well as just bouncing from falling so fast. Eventually

the UK will get worse and Euro will be stronger in 2009 just because.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

you are missing the point dude: Latvian latte is now MORE expensive than London's in relative terms ...

also, peak to trough the £ lost over 40% against the euro in just over a year (0.68 to 0.98).

Ask yourself: is this justified? How much UK bad news relative to the EZ has already been discounted?

That's what I meant, dude.

Peak to trough that's a 30% loss for Sterling, not 40%. And half of that was yonks ago anyway. The Euro was at round about 80p for over half the year, I didn't see Lithuanians flying over for a cheap cappuccino then.

I don't think enough of the UK's bad news has been discounted yet, no, in particular one piece of very bad news which is going to hit us much harder than Euroland, and can currently be found in the address bar of your browser.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro taking an absolute hammering against the doallar in anticipation of massive Euro rate cut on Thursday. I anticipate a cut of at least 13%, if not more.......................... :rolleyes:

Very Nice, pity you forgot the decimal point, or put it in after the number.

Just like an illiterate child let loose with a box of coloured crayons.

Edited by Johnny Cash
Link to comment
Share on other sites

How much is a pint in Paris at the moment? That is always my value benchmark. Many years ago it was close to £4.50 for a pint which was a screaming signal to sell FF. Market went from 8FF to 12FF over a period of about 6mths/1Yr if I remember right.

€7-8 which is about £6.40 - 7.30 at todays exchange rate.

QED

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's what I meant, dude.

Peak to trough that's a 30% loss for Sterling, not 40%. And half of that was yonks ago anyway. The Euro was at round about 80p for over half the year, I didn't see Lithuanians flying over for a cheap cappuccino then.

I don't think enough of the UK's bad news has been discounted yet, no, in particular one piece of very bad news which is going to hit us much harder than Euroland, and can currently be found in the address bar of your browser.

I'm afraid you are wrong again, squire: Eur/Gbp was below 0.70 in nov 07, i.e. just over a year ago as i said before.

(0.98-0.70)/0.70*100= - 40%

House prices are going down in vast parts of the EZ too (Spain, Italy, France, Ireland to name a few countries), but price stats are not widely available, hence the fall is less visible than the UK.

There is no such thing as Haliwide stats in the EZ: believe it or not, the local VIs have had a very easy life in the boom years...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

€7-8 which is about £6.40 - 7.30 at todays exchange rate.

QED

You must drink in the most expensive parts of Paris at those prices.

Up around the tourist area of Moulin Rouge / Pigalle you can get a pint (or half litre, slightly more) for 5€.

6€ for Guinness. If you search, you can get happy hours all over Paris that start from 4pm and charge 4€ a pint.

I can find places in London that charge nearly £5 a pint, but I wouldn't go there either ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm afraid you are wrong again, squire: Eur/Gbp was below 0.70 in nov 07, i.e. just over a year ago as i said before.

(0.98-0.70)/0.70*100= - 40%

House prices are going down in vast parts of the EZ too (Spain, Italy, France, Ireland to name a few countries), but price stats are not widely available, hence the fall is less visible than the UK.

There is no such thing as Haliwide stats in the EZ: believe it or not, the local VIs have had a very easy life in the boom years...

Some markets are different to the UK:

-No gazumping laws in many EU countries.

-Banks not lending 125% of price.

-No Self-Cert mortgages.

-Higher transaction costs (stamp duty, lawyers fees etc)

-Larger % of transactions sold without the meddling of an EA

etc....

Granted, it would be nice to have some recent data like Haliwide, but I'd say that VI's / EA's everywhere have had an easy ride. And anyways, did anyone really believe much of the data that was spouted by the VI's , apart from the gullible public :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm afraid you are wrong again, squire: Eur/Gbp was below 0.70 in nov 07, i.e. just over a year ago as i said before.

(0.98-0.70)/0.70*100= - 40%

What you said was: "peak to trough the £ lost over 40% against the euro in just over a year (0.68 to 0.98)"

Which is: .98-1 / .68-1 - 1 = -30.6%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You must drink in the most expensive parts of Paris at those prices.

Up around the tourist area of Moulin Rouge / Pigalle you can get a pint (or half litre, slightly more) for 5€.

6€ for Guinness. If you search, you can get happy hours all over Paris that start from 4pm and charge 4€ a pint.

I can find places in London that charge nearly £5 a pint, but I wouldn't go there either ;)

I don't know. The last place I had a Heineken there (about 1 month ago) was about 1 km away from the Arc de Triomph and it was 7 Euros. I paid 5 Euros somewhere else about 7 years ago (cant remember where, but very central, maybe neear Notre Dame) so I figured that might cost 8 nowadays,.

I think you'll find that a half litre is less than a pint, 0,875 pints, in fact.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What you said was: "peak to trough the £ lost over 40% against the euro in just over a year (0.68 to 0.98)"

Which is: .98-1 / .68-1 - 1 = -30.6%

You calculate a % gain/loss from the initial price point, in this case 0.68

You would make a great CFO :lol::lol::lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.