Is Scottish Property Now The Most Overvalued In The Uk?

[Paul77]

Its 'value' is a good question.

When I moved in there were two flats on the stairs for sale for £150,000 (fixed price and offers around) I dont know if either sold as they are not on ESPC but one of the sale boards is still up. I was looking the other day and identical flats on the street around the corner were OO £132,000 I am going to keep and eye on these to see if they sell.

150k / 475 = 26 years

132k / 475 = 23 years

Definitely cheaper to rent in my opinion.

I am using this simple factor to analyse what is a better option for me. When it drops below 15 years I will start seriously thinking about buying. If not, I don't care = renting is cheaper.

I used to live in Leeds for a while (North Yorkshire) where this factor could be as low as 16, but in the end did not like it and came back to Scotland.

[ccc]

Betweem a 3.8 and a 4.3 % basic yield.

Not worth getting out of bed for - for any serious landlord. Especially as capital growth is likely to be negative or at best flat.

These flats really need to be well under 100k to be seen a decent investment. Same goes for people simply buying one to live in. Anything over 100k is insane.

[lulu]

Betweem a 3.8 and a 4.3 % basic yield.

Not worth getting out of bed for - for any serious landlord. Especially as capital growth is likely to be negative or at best flat.

These flats really need to be well under 100k to be seen a decent investment. Same goes for people simply buying one to live in. Anything over 100k is insane.

But I guess the flat I am in was bought for 50p and a packet of sweeties back in the day so the return in their investment will be much much more.

[ccc]

But I guess the flat I am in was bought for 50p and a packet of sweeties back in the day so the return in their investment will be much much more.

Very true. Although if they try to sell and realise their profits - they may find it trickier than expected. Maybe not. The brainwashing in this country regarding property is extreme.

[guitarman001]

It seems to me you're just used to stopping with your parents and paying very little (if any?) rent and saving lots of money in the process. Compared to this renting a place in the 'real world' is bound to feel expensive. Get used to it-the rest of us have (almost!)

You'll need £5-600 to rent a half decent one-bed in edinburgh, or if you share then £400 each will get you an even nice place. You can add in another £200 per month on bills. insurance and council tax while you're at it

Of course you could stop at home with your parents and accumulate money, but as you indicate there are quality of life issues-you've got to fly the nest sometime!

Spot on... hit the nail on the head! You can see it from my point of view, though... When you're saving £12k+ a year you'd be loathe to move out. It'd probably knock savings down to a meagre £3k a YEAR or so.

On the other hand, there's very little room at home now, and I'm sick of 1 hour+ commutes to and from work.

Gah!! DAMN high property prices!! You can really see how people struggle to save a deposit, and I'm on a decent wage!

Edited October 3, 2009 by thomasross20

[guitarman001]

So I've been looking and there are places available for ~£400pcm, single bed rents (not keen on sharing, want girlfriend round on weekends!). Total dives though, not keen on leaving the car in those areas. Sounds a bit harsh, you know what I mean.

I'm tempted to wait it out at home for a year, save a little more, and then just put money toward buying a place. Am I mad? One year, surely prices will fall a bit by then. It turns out to be so much cheaper even on repayment terms (including other monies put toward the place from savings). God, I sound like a troll / bull!

I realised before how costly rents can be... but until now when I may be making the move, reality hits - no wonder people on the street look depressed. How can people afford to live on less than ~£18-20k? Having stayed at home whilst paying minimum rent, I realise my income felt almost triple what it actually was. It's really hitting home on a personal level, the effects of high proerty & rent prices. Yes, yes, I did realise before.. but you know what I meanr... until you actually do it....

Let's face it - rent ISN'T cheap, is it? Time for me to visit the renters forum lol... I'd be better off going on the council housing list, I know that is relatively cheap (or at least I think so). Fat chance. But I will be keeping an even stricter eye on monies in and out, and if there are places to be had for a reasonable amount. Of course I'm going to do my spreadsheet analyses, but it could be time for this bear to turn to bull.

[ccc]

So I've been looking and there are places available for ~£400pcm, single bed rents (not keen on sharing, want girlfriend round on weekends!). Total dives though, not keen on leaving the car in those areas. Sounds a bit harsh, you know what I mean.

I'm tempted to wait it out at home for a year, save a little more, and then just put money toward buying a place. Am I mad? One year, surely prices will fall a bit by then. It turns out to be so much cheaper even on repayment terms (including other monies put toward the place from savings). God, I sound like a troll / bull!

I realised before how costly rents can be... but until now when I may be making the move, reality hits - no wonder people on the street look depressed. How can people afford to live on less than ~£18-20k? Having stayed at home whilst paying minimum rent, I realise my income felt almost triple what it actually was. It's really hitting home on a personal level, the effects of high proerty & rent prices. Yes, yes, I did realise before.. but you know what I meanr... until you actually do it....

Let's face it - rent ISN'T cheap, is it? Time for me to visit the renters forum lol... I'd be better off going on the council housing list, I know that is relatively cheap (or at least I think so). Fat chance. But I will be keeping an even stricter eye on monies in and out, and if there are places to be had for a reasonable amount. Of course I'm going to do my spreadsheet analyses, but it could be time for this bear to turn to bull.

Is a joke how much people have to pay to simply have a roof over your head. Especially as if you don't ever want to work ? You get it all paid for 100%.

As for flats far better off going for a 2 bed if you can get someone you know to share. Huge oversupply seeing as these were the BTL favourites.

Nice one bed - 450-500

Nice two bed - 600-650

[guitarman001]

I think that for the foreseeable future, even with a cramped home and new little sister on the way, I'm going to stay at home. I'll just have to put earplugs in. There's no way I'm shelling out that sort of money when I can stay at home, albeit inconvenient, and see my savings rise by a factor of 4. True, it'll be a commute to work, and my savings will be about a half or 3/5 of what they previously were (boo!), but it beats saving very little at all. Let's see what I say to this in 6 months time!

[Democorruptcy]

This is a good one.

http://www-r.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/271309?ID=FGIDNDCE#picture

Nice looking house but £625k???

The one next door sold for £350k in August 2006:

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=sold_prices_street_detail&street=RIVERSIDE+PARK&locality=PORT+ELPHINSTONE&town=INVERURIE&cCode=SC&year=All&house_style=All&house_age=All&search_radius=15&outcode=AB51&incode=3SB&eastingToSearch=37750&northingToSearch=82030

Obviously that sale was before the so called 2007 "peak" and I don't know how similar the houses are but +78.5% is some difference.

The house is yards from the traffic noise of the A96 on the left and there is the railway line to the right!

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=AB51+3SB+&countryCode=GB#map=57.27352,-2.37468|16|4&dp=os&bd=useful_information&loc=GB:57.27352:-2.37466:16|AB51 3SB |AB51 3SB

Then the icing on the cake is that if you look on the SEPA site it is in danger of flooding!

http://www.multimap.com/clients/browse.cgi?client=sepa&client=sepa&db=GB&droplaunch=true&addr3=&scale=25000&pc=AB513SB&overlay=layer2

"One of the most sought after streets in Inverurie"

[The McGlashan]

This is a good one.

http://www-r.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/271309?ID=FGIDNDCE#picture

Nice looking house but £625k???

The one next door sold for £350k in August 2006:

http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=sold_prices_street_detail&street=RIVERSIDE+PARK&locality=PORT+ELPHINSTONE&town=INVERURIE&cCode=SC&year=All&house_style=All&house_age=All&search_radius=15&outcode=AB51&incode=3SB&eastingToSearch=37750&northingToSearch=82030

Obviously that sale was before the so called 2007 "peak" and I don't know how similar the houses are but +78.5% is some difference.

The house is yards from the traffic noise of the A96 on the left and there is the railway line to the right!

http://www.multimap.com/maps/?qs=AB51+3SB+&countryCode=GB#map=57.27352,-2.37468|16|4&dp=os&bd=useful_information&loc=GB:57.27352:-2.37466:16|AB51 3SB |AB51 3SB

Then the icing on the cake is that if you look on the SEPA site it is in danger of flooding!

http://www.multimap.com/clients/browse.cgi?client=sepa&client=sepa&db=GB&droplaunch=true&addr3=&scale=25000&pc=AB513SB&overlay=layer2

"One of the most sought after streets in Inverurie"

Ugh! Nice looking house? No it isn't; it lacks integrity, style and authenticity; it pretends to be something it is not. No doubt these are all characteristics it shares in common with both its current owners and prospective buyers. Still, it's got an integrated double-garage and a 'superstar' bathroom, so it must be worth its money! (Mind yer head, 'tho.)

Why is it that, as we move into the second decade of the 21st century, house builders cannot provide us with homes which look as if they belong in the century in which we live? Why is it that so many new-builds look exactly like something a nursery-school child would draw in any decade of the 20th century? (With ceiling heights to match!)

Is it perhaps because, today, housebuilders believe that it is not necessary to employ architects, choosing rather to get by with 'architectural technicians' only? Is it because they hold their customers in contempt, infantilising us as the kindergarten artist I described above? Or is it because quality, authenticity and integrity are column-headings which cannot be integrated on the cost/price/profit spreadsheet of the quantity surveyor who built this house and hundreds of thousands exactly like it up and down the country?

Edited October 18, 2009 by The McGlashan

[ccc]

Not sure how this one got through the Scotsman net:

http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Property-no-longer-safe-as.5742226.jp

"Property no longer safe as houses..."

[Democorruptcy]

Ugh! Nice looking house? No it isn't; it lacks integrity, style and authenticity; it pretends to be something it is not. No doubt these are all characteristics it shares in common with both its current owners and prospective buyers. Still, it's got an integrated double-garage and a 'superstar' bathroom, so it must be worth its money! (Mind yer head, 'tho.)

Why is it that, as we move into the second decade of the 21st century, house builders cannot provide us with homes which look as if they belong in the century in which we live? Why is it that so many new-builds look exactly like something a nursery-school child would draw in any decade of the 20th century? (With ceiling heights to match!)

Is it perhaps because, today, housebuilders believe that it is not necessary to employ architects, choosing rather to get by with 'architectural technicians' only? Is it because they hold their customers in contempt, infantilising us as the kindergarten artist I described above? Or is it because quality, authenticity and integrity are column-headings which cannot be integrated on the cost/price/profit spreadsheet of the quantity surveyor who built this house and hundreds of thousands exactly like it up and down the country?

I was only trying to start off being slightly positive because I knew everything else I was going to type wasn't very complimentary.

[The McGlashan]

I was only trying to start off being slightly positive because I knew everything else I was going to type wasn't very complimentary.

Heh, no offense intended - I just enjoy a wee rant from time to time.

[Democorruptcy]

I've broken my post 2007 record today.

Just noticed one new on the market at £425k that sold for £280k in March 2007, a mere 52% increase!

http://www.hspc.co.uk/2007/details.asp?id=40271

[The McGlashan]

I've just learned that the Halifax BS says that the long-run average of house price / earnings ratio is 4. The sexist pigs use male-only full time mean earnings to calculate the ratio.

So.. plugging this in with the latest quarterly (Q3 09) RoS average house price data and the latest ONS ASHE we get:

UK affordability ratio = 5.0

(Fall in house price required to get to long-run avg. affordability ratio = -19.2% = -£31,784)

Scotland affordability ratio = 4.9

(Fall in house price required to get to long-run avg. affordability ratio = -18.9% = -£29,133)

I'm sure it's within the bounds of statistical error if we just say that there's no difference in affordability between the UK and Scotland.

As for the detail....

Aberdeen = 4.9

(Fall in house price required to get to long-run avg. affordability ratio = -18.8% = -£32,775)

Dundee = 4.5

(Fall in house price required to get to long-run avg. affordability ratio = -10.1% = -£12,691)

Edinburgh = 6.0

(Fall in house price required to get to long-run avg. affordability ratio = -33.2% = -£69,024)

Glasgow = 4.7

(Fall in house price required to get to long-run avg. affordability ratio = -14.5% = -£20,153)

Edit, for Redhat Sly

Moray = 4.9

(Fall in house price required to get to long-run avg. affordability ratio = -17.9% = -£25,707)

Highland = 5.2

(Fall in house price required to get to long-run avg. affordability ratio = -23.5% = -£36,049)

Now, of course the affordability ratio will vary across the country and from city to city. It is up to us to take a view on just how big the overvaluation is. Similarly, what will provoke the necessary adjustment to bring prices back into line with the long run average ratio.

Will wages go up during 09/10, and by how much?

Will house prices go down, and what will be the mechanism to achieve this?

Edited December 7, 2009 by The McGlashan

[Wires 74]

Looking to move up from the North of England to live near family who are up on the Moray Firth ( Lossiemouth area) -gobsmacked by the house prices even quite small places seem to be around the £250 K mark ( same properties were around 150K last time we looked two years ago ) -question is therefore how are these prices sustainable and if they aren`t when will they start to fall - also what does `fixed price ` mean - is it same as `Not open to Offers` ?

[Radge]

Give it a year or so: Once the defence cuts really get going and Lossie or Kinloss close, property prices will plummet.

Fixed Price equates to 'Offers Under'!

Edited December 29, 2009 by Radge

[Democorruptcy]

Looking to move up from the North of England to live near family who are up on the Moray Firth ( Lossiemouth area) -gobsmacked by the house prices even quite small places seem to be around the £250 K mark ( same properties were around 150K last time we looked two years ago ) -question is therefore how are these prices sustainable and if they aren`t when will they start to fall - also what does `fixed price ` mean - is it same as `Not open to Offers` ?

I am in the area.

There are still some properties on the market since I started renting up here in Jan 2008. Some others have come on this year at around 30% more than I know they sold for when we had the so called "peak" in 2007. I think the surveyor's doing home report valautions are planning to try make the unsold properties look cheaper!

Compare some prices on http://www.nethouseprices.com/index.php?con=Search-Sold-House-Prices

[Wires 74]

Thanks guys much appreciated - was looking at something around 300K dependent on what price our current property goes for when and if we sell ...

You could certainly get a lot more for that type of money around 2006 .

[Democorruptcy]

Thanks guys much appreciated - was looking at something around 300K dependent on what price our current property goes for when and if we sell ...

You could certainly get a lot more for that type of money around 2006 .

Definitely.

[Tubas]

My beloved Scottish wife has just been "home" and has returned to the darkest midlands and the family home. She has found us a house to live in!

Doonbrae House

I think it looks overpriced. It has been on the market for 6 months and has not sold. It sits on the main road, and has no garage. Also a shared access with another house. I know nothing of the Scottish market, so a little direction or advice would be of some help.

I am summoned to Scotland next week to visit Schools, and the property.

She means business

[The McGlashan]

Rental yields dropping in Aberdeen - Strong indication that sales prices are detached from fundamentals

Rental yields falling below average indicates that sale prices are out of line with 'fair value'. Price/rent ratios are a common way to evaluate housing market fundamentals; rents incorporate fundamental influences on housing demand and supply. People need to live somewhere – the choice is between buying your own home or renting, not between spending money on housing or retaining income for other purposes. Moreover, rental expenditure is not subject to the market distortions which plague the house purchase market. We can therefore use yield fluctuations to determine the extent of those distortions.

We've heard time and again that Aberdeen is the BTL paradise where rental yields of 7% are common. On the Aberdeen threads we've had landlords boasting of 12% and 8% yields. (Though these claims were subject to heated debate.)

Not any more. A quick look at comparable properties for sale and let on ASPC indicates that yields like that are a thing of the past.

If we take the 'common' 7% yield to indicate a fair value equilibrium, we can put a rule of thumb on asking prices to work out how far detached from fundamentals the price is. Actually, let's be conservative and call net 6% yield a fair-value price for Aberdeen. (The long-run UK average is 6.4%, rising to 7.9% in 'top university towns' according to Propertywire.)

(Comparable properties - comparable or same areas)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

FTB-type one-bet flats

Rosebank Place, Ferryhill

http://www-q.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/276626?ID=FGLFGAAK#picture

O/o £115k

http://www-p.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/273620?ID=FGLFGAAK#picture

Rent £500 pcm

Yield (net) = 4.7%

=> asking price is 28% higher than fundamentals would dictate.

Fair value asking price for this type of property in this sub-area would be £90k

__________________________________________________________________________________________

'Aspirational' new-build 2-bed flats

Grandholm Mills

http://www-q.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/276304?ID=FGLFGAAK#picture

O/o £165k

http://www-p.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/276443?ID=FGLFGAAK#picture

Rent £800 pcm

Yield = 5.2%

=> asking price is 15% higher than fundamentals would dictate.

Fair value asking price for this type of property in this sub-area would be £143k

__________________________________________________________________________________________

3-bed semi's

Broomhill

http://www-q.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/274635?ID=FGLFGAAK#picture

O/o £360k

http://www-p.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/276689?ID=FGLFGAAK#picture

Rent £990 pcm

Yield = 2.97%

=> asking price is 100% higher than fundamentals would dictate! By the profit's beard!

Fair value asking price for this type of property in this sub-area would be £180k

__________________________________________________________________________________________

4-bed detached

West end Cragiebuckler

http://www-q.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/261098?ID=FGLFGAAK#picture

O/o £425k

West end Mannofield

http://www-p.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/LiveProperty/276316?ID=FGLFGAAK#picture

Rent £1350 pcm

Yield = 3.4%

=> asking price is 76% higher than fundamentals would dictate!

Fair value asking price for this type of property in this sub-area would be £241k

__________________________________________________________________________________________

What factors are at play here? What will bring the market back to fundamental equilibrium? What's the situation in other Scottish towns?

^{Originally posted in 'Aberdeen - ASPC stats' thread.}

Edited February 3, 2010 by The McGlashan

[Jie Bie]

What's the situation in other Scottish towns?

Glasgow - me and my flatmate pay £550pcm for a big 2 bed top floor tennement flat in Shawlands.

Similar properties on the market for around £135k. Given my knowledge of the Glasgow Southside market I have no doubt that if my landlord chose to sell he'd get at least £120k for this place, most likely £130k +.