Little Professor Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 SCOTLAND will bounce back from the house-price slump before the rest of the UK, experts have predicted. As prices fell across the UK last year, Scotland initially escaped the worst before the pace of decline accelerated in the last quarter. However, the Scottish system, where each transaction on the chain is insulated from the next, means the first signs of a UK housing market revival will be seen north of the Border, said Steve Spence, senior partner in property solicitors Neilsons. "The English market does not look like improving in the short term, as house prices have been falling at a much higher rate than in Scotland," he said. "In contrast, whilst we have experienced a moderate fall in house prices, a look at the numbers of properties on the market would tell you that the Scottish market is all set to go." Scottish house prices are likely to fall further in the coming months before levelling out, solicitors behind the Edinburgh & Lothians Property Guide have cautioned. But they are unlikely to fall dramatically, encouraging more buyers into the market, said Les Deans, senior partner with Leslie Deans & Co. http://business.scotsman.com/personal-fina...irst.4840544.jp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blobby o mr blobby Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 usual ******** from the scotsman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Duly commented on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pyracantha Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 "As prices fell across the UK last year, Scotland initially escaped the worst before the pace of decline accelerated in the last quarter." An admission that prices have started to drop! "However, the Scottish system, where each transaction on the chain is insulated from the next..." No longer true - I have seen property sales at the missives stage fall apart (having been withdrawn from the market), because the chain broke. An EA admitted it was unlikely legal action would be pursued or successful currently. One property we have been looking at "sold" for £362k, has been reduced a couple of times and has been languishing for some time at fp £300k. "...means the first signs of a UK housing market revival will be seen north of the Border..." No logic at all to this statement! I think it's more to do with a time lag. As other posters have said, Scotland is quite heavily dependent on the financial and service sectors: NY job losses and all that. "In contrast, whilst we have experienced a moderate fall in house prices, a look at the numbers of properties on the market would tell you that the Scottish market is all set to go." There are vast numbers of properties for sale in England too. Does that mean the English market is all set to go? "Scottish house prices are likely to fall further in the coming months before levelling out, solicitors behind the Edinburgh & Lothians Property Guide have cautioned. But they are unlikely to fall dramatically, encouraging more buyers into the market, said Les Deans, senior partner with Leslie Deans & Co." The really annoying bit about this is that sellers reading this article will think they can just sit tight and still expect to get the price their EA advised them 9 months ago. Well I suppose it's nothing more than you would expect a couple of EAs to say. Still feeling a bit tin-foil hattish. We had another power-cut last night and had to dig out the candles and bed socks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest An Bearin Bui Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 The really annoying bit about this is that sellers reading this article will think they can just sit tight and still expect to get the price their EA advised them 9 months ago. That's what makes this kind of property ramping so stupid: don't they realise that all they're accomplishing is a further delay in recovery for the market? By continuing to insist that the falls will be moderate and recovery will be quick, they're just delaying 1,000s of sellers from getting real about pricing and thus building up supply for the future. This will just depress recovery whenever buyers do start to return to the market as the overhang of supply will be immense. Already rents have fallen significantly because so many sellers are holding off to 'rent it out instead' so what happens when they al sell up together in 2010 because the market is proclaimed to be in recovery? It wouldn't take a genius to work this out and start encouraging sellers to be realistic about offers but then again estate agents are not exactly the sharpest tools in the box (although they are tools...). If they were, they wouldn't be working as estate agents, I suppose... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blobby o mr blobby Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 (edited) I wouldn't expect Scottish house prices to fair any better than south of the border, but it is intresting to see that some areas have not fallen as far England (So far), are there any reasons why? The usual time lag what casues it? Edited January 3, 2009 by blobby o mr blobby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m4rk Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 scotland's prices aparently held out against falls before englands did so how can it come out of the falls before england when it went in after. coupled with low oil price hopefully knocking the hard to shift prices of aberdeen the banking job losses that will occur in edinburgh and usual glasgow is shit anyway (sorry i really hate glasgow) how will we come out of it first. if anything id expect ti to be the other way arround, scotland lags england... which lags the u.s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 The latest forecast for 2009 House Price declines.... From The Times, January 2, 2009 Forecast change in house prices across the UK: London - 12.2% South East - 9.6% South West - 8.4% Yorkshire - 10.5% East - 11.6% West Midlands - 9.6% East Midlands - 9.4% North West - 10.1% North - 5.9% Scotland-4.6% Wales - 13.8% Northern Ireland - 31.6% UK - 11.0% Scotland has outperformed the rest of the UK in a massive way in 2008, and will continue to do so in 2009. This has also been the case in previous price crashes. We don't see the massive growth of england as a rule, (theres always some small areas that do, but most don't), but we also don't see the massive crashes either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 The latest forecast for 2009 House Price declines....From The Times, January 2, 2009 Forecast change in house prices across the UK: London - 12.2% South East - 9.6% South West - 8.4% Yorkshire - 10.5% East - 11.6% West Midlands - 9.6% East Midlands - 9.4% North West - 10.1% North - 5.9% Scotland-4.6% Wales - 13.8% Northern Ireland - 31.6% UK - 11.0% Scotland has outperformed the rest of the UK in a massive way in 2008, and will continue to do so in 2009. This has also been the case in previous price crashes. We don't see the massive growth of england as a rule, (theres always some small areas that do, but most don't), but we also don't see the massive crashes either. Outperformed ? Explain how ? We don't see the massive growth as in England !!! What planet are you from ? Ayreshire ? Glasgow, Aberdeed, Edinburgh..........need I go on ? Let's get a lawyer. I will bet you £10,000 that Scotland's house prices fall more than 4.6% next year. Hell - in fact I will give you a bit of leeway. I will state thay will fall by at least 10% in 2009. Money - Mouth. Do it or shut up. Nonsensical rantings by people who PRETEND they know what they are talking about is really starting to do my nut in. Give it a rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 I want to add my two bits to this discussion. These experts have a lot to answer for. I know of quite a few people in deep kaka because they have listened to the property pundits, forgoing their own best instinct, and are now suffering nequity. Me, well after being labeled a doom-monger and tin foil hatter, well, these friends and family just look at me with hollow panicked eyes and I worry deeply about their mental well being. Remember that Britain is a NET importing nation, and almost all of your expenditures are weighted against foreign currencies, primarily the $USD and €EUR. Therefore, in REAL terms, house prices in 2008 fell 16.2% (Halifax) YoY, and the remaining value must be double discounted at a further 25% against our primary trading currencies. It's a double whammy, which the media seems to ignore. Even worse for Scotland, is the reliance on the financial services sector based in Edinburgh which will contract this year, and the North Sea, which will halve its operations budget this year. Big time layoffs coming. Unless we as Brits start producing our own consumables, we are really fooked. Until Scotland is fully devolved, nothing will change up here either and we will be at the mercy of Whitehall. There is no happy ending to this either, not unless Gordon Brown and London can convince the world to start pumping in massive amounts of liquidity. We traded our mule for non-magic beans, and the only people who have really benefited from this mad 20 year asset bubble have been investment bankers, solicitors and the uber rich, as always. I imagine most of them have their nest eggs spread across a basket of currencies, commodities such as oil and agricultural, and a good stack of bullion. The rest of us are chasing around a point or two on property in a crashing market. Very sad. It's even more depressing when you consider that in that time where property took centre stage, our government just sat back and got fat off the taxes, and did nothing to develop other areas for individuals to invest in. Sickening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pyracantha Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 In contrast to the Scotsman's ramping there are a couple of more realistic articles in today's Herald. Go see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shergar75 Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 Typical Scotsman article, relying on the age old fantasy that the scots are bigger and better than the rest...its actually criminal writing articles like this...its the same as the guy in the finance section of the paper that talks up a certain company that he has just bought shares in....believe me it happens.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meltsheep Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Nonsensical rantings by people who PRETEND they know what they are talking about is really starting to do my nut in. Give it a rest. Hear Hear! I was reading up on the psychology of denialists. They tend to state certain facts as absolute truth - when really they're talking crap or have been cherry picking the stats. Edinburgh's prices have shot up by at least 3 times since the mid-nineties. haven't they ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ccc Posted January 6, 2009 Share Posted January 6, 2009 Hear Hear! I was reading up on the psychology of denialists. They tend to state certain facts as absolute truth - when really they're talking crap or have been cherry picking the stats. Edinburgh's prices have shot up by at least 3 times since the mid-nineties. haven't they ? Yep something like that. Stats are out there if you do a google search !! I do know that the classic one bed Gorgie FTB flat rose from about 50k to about 130k in the space of only 4 years. That is insane. Whichever way you look at it. I still don't get why some people want to live in a place where it is extortionate to get a simple roof over your head ? Does it make them feel special in some way ? Would they not prefer to be spending their money on something more enjoyable ! I know I would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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