Barking, Dagenham & Hornchurch

[Sibley's Love Child]

Hi there,

I'd be grateful for any input to what is, admittedly, a rather generic question. At the moment the wife and I rent a council flat in SE17 with a baby on the way in March 09. By the time she's back in full-time work (we both work for the NHS) in March 2010 we hope to pick-up a two-bed terrace in Essex to be near the in-laws. At present, i've noticed that the current asking prices for most two-bed houses in the above areas (with the exception of Hornchurch, Rainham which are more expensive) tend to be around the 145-160k mark. My question is; in your opinion is it feasible to expect drops to the 90-100k mark by 2010 (which is what i'm hoping for)? This would be back to 2002 levels btw.

I've posted a link to a typical property in this area to give an idea:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...3Ftype%3DBUYING

Many thanks in advance.

If you need any more info, please let me know.

[yandos]

I don't think it'll drop by that much to be honest, thats a 50% drop from 'original' asking price in the link you posted.

I'd expect them to bottom out at around 120-130k for the following reasons

- Barking & Dagenham is one of the cheapest boroughs in London already

- It has good transport links with multiple tube stations, Bus network, overground into fenchurch st etc

- Due to the already low cost of property in this area and a large amount of council housing, you won't see so many BTL repos (at least not in houses) or people who have stretched themselves to buy which is where the best bargains come from.

- Sheeple still believe in the 'olympic effect' (even more so in 2010+) and keep interest in this area pretty high.

You may be looking at 40-50% off a 300K 1 bed flat in clapham, but 145K for a two bed house+garden near a tube station is pretty cheap (in the scale of things) already.

Edited December 31, 2008 by yandos

[Sibley's Love Child]

I don't think it'll drop by that much to be honest, thats a 50% drop from 'original' asking price in the link you posted. I'd expect them to bottom out at around 120-130k for the following reasons- Barking & Dagenham is one of the cheapest boroughs in London already- It has good transport links with multiple tube stations, Bus network, overground into fenchurch st etc- Due to the already low cost of property in this area and a large amount of council housing, you won't see so many BTL repos (at least not in houses) or people who have stretched themselves to buy which is where the best bargains come from.- Sheeple  still believe in the 'olympic effect' (even more so in 2010+) and keep interest in this area pretty high.You may be looking at 40-50% off a 300K 1 bed flat in clapham, but 145K for a two bed house+garden near a tube station is pretty cheap (in the scale of things) already.

Thanks Yandos, the points you make are valid. I appreciate that Barking & Dagenham are relatively cheap (mind you, that could be argued for a good reason). I remember the asking prices were 20k higher a year ago so I do expect some sort of drop. I suppose 120k will suffice. Thankfully, time is on my side.

Edited January 1, 2009 by hyperinflation-a-go-go

[bagsos]

I used to live in Dag in a house owned by my partner, and in my view Yandos is completely correct in his or her analysis, except the BTL part - the house next door to us was a BTL, there was one opposite and when my partner sold (to an OO) a fair few viewers were BTL merchants, because usually in that area they can onlet to a housing association for 5 years with rent guaranteed. The ex council properties there are already good value and whilst I think they will come off a bit, it won't be by as much as some other parts of London.

[Sibley's Love Child]

I used to live in Dag in a house owned by my partner, and in my view Yandos is completely correct in his or her analysis, except the BTL part - the house next door to us was a BTL, there was one opposite and when my partner sold (to an OO) a fair few viewers were BTL merchants, because usually in that area they can onlet to a housing association for 5 years with rent guaranteed. The ex council properties there are already good value and whilst I think they will come off a bit, it won't be by as much as some other parts of London.

Thanks for the advice Bagsos; it's good to receive 'local wisdom', as it were. It appears that I may have been overly optimistic in my assumptions. I'll still hold out hope for some real drops but guess i'll see where the market stands in a year's time. If push came to shove, begrudgingly, we could afford a mortgage (assuming we're both employed of course) in the c. 120-140k range but would rather not if it could be avoided.

I agree with Yandos insomuch that, given the proximity to Central London and its transport links, Dagenham is cheap in comparison to other overinflated areas. Similarly, i've noticed an arc that spans from Essex into Kent covering areas like Pufleet, Thurrock, Erith, Dartford, Erith, Belvedere etc where a two-bed terrace can be sought for a not entirely unreasonable amount of debt (and all around 20-30 mins from London by train). Anyway, I digress.

[bagsos]

Thanks for the advice Bagsos; it's good to receive 'local wisdom', as it were. It appears that I may have been overly optimistic in my assumptions. I'll still hold out hope for some real drops but guess i'll see where the market stands in a year's time. If push came to shove, begrudgingly, we could afford a mortgage (assuming we're both employed of course) in the c. 120-140k range but would rather not if it could be avoided.

I agree with Yandos insomuch that, given the proximity to Central London and its transport links, Dagenham is cheap in comparison to other overinflated areas. Similarly, i've noticed an arc that spans from Essex into Kent covering areas like Pufleet, Thurrock, Erith, Dartford, Erith, Belvedere etc where a two-bed terrace can be sought for a not entirely unreasonable amount of debt (and all around 20-30 mins from London by train). Anyway, I digress.

That far eastern part seems to have always been cheap - but Essex has much better transport links than Kent, so I think its value will hold up better - if you move to Dag I would recommend the area between the station and the Ford plant off the Heathway - you then have the option of either the district line from Heathway station or the C2C service into Fenchurch St, and you have Asda, Aldi and the only decent pub in Nam within walking distance. And make sure you get one with an upstairs bathroom - much easier to sell on when the time comes (partner's house had downstairs bathroom and the punters generally don't like them). My guess is that those 2 bedded houses with upstairs bathroom and 60 foot gardens will probably drop down to £125k.

[Sibley's Love Child]

That far eastern part seems to have always been cheap - but Essex has much better transport links than Kent, so I think its value will hold up better - if you move to Dag I would recommend the area between the station and the Ford plant off the Heathway - you then have the option of either the district line from Heathway station or the C2C service into Fenchurch St, and you have Asda, Aldi and the only decent pub in Nam within walking distance. And make sure you get one with an upstairs bathroom - much easier to sell on when the time comes (partner's house had downstairs bathroom and the punters generally don't like them). My guess is that those 2 bedded houses with upstairs bathroom and 60 foot gardens will probably drop down to £125k.

Thanks for the further insight. To be honest I would have preferred Kent as I work in London Bridge but the in-laws live in Elm Park, so Essex it is (mother in-law is to be the child-minder). When we do get around to offering, i'm looking for somewhere near Becontree or any of the Dagenham stations on the District line - of these (and assuming I have any choice) which are the most/least desirable areas of Dagenham? If 120k is the bottom for this area and type of house then I suppose it will be better than nothing, I guess. For obvious reasons, I would prefer to reduce the amount of debt we'll be saddled with but we'll see what 2010 brings. Thanks for the advice Bagsos.

[We're all dooomed!!!]

Thanks for the further insight. To be honest I would have preferred Kent as I work in London Bridge but the in-laws live in Elm Park, so Essex it is (mother in-law is to be the child-minder). When we do get around to offering, i'm looking for somewhere near Becontree or any of the Dagenham stations on the District line - of these (and assuming I have any choice) which are the most/least desirable areas of Dagenham? If 120k is the bottom for this area and type of house then I suppose it will be better than nothing, I guess. For obvious reasons, I would prefer to reduce the amount of debt we'll be saddled with but we'll see what 2010 brings. Thanks for the advice Bagsos.

Hi, I live in Elm Park. Don't know if you have found anywhere yet (my advice might be too late :-) but I'd personally avoid the area around Dagenham Heathway. The area has always had a nasty, edgy feeling (yobbos, drunken fights, even seen a scuffle on the tube platform). Also avoid anywhere on the south side of the A13 road in my experience. I'm afraid I can't be too positive about most desirable areas as things are changing so fast there as far as I can see. Probably the most deirable area in the past was around Upney, with Becontree and Dagenham East not being too bad.

[Muskoka]

I also would avoid Dagenham/Rainham areas. Cheap, but there is a reason for the cheap price. Need I say more - And I'm currently very local. Having said that, I do think the C2C trains are very good - rarely a problem with them

[paulk]

I also would avoid Dagenham/Rainham areas. Cheap, but there is a reason for the cheap price. Need I say more - And I'm currently very local. Having said that, I do think the C2C trains are very good - rarely a problem with them

Would be good to hear more about the area. We were thinking of buying around Raydons Road area

[Muskoka]

Sorry for very late reply. What can I say? Area is the pits!! I know of people who have lived in the area for umpteen years and feel that its going down & down. Don't know what your budget is , but If it was me I'd be moving further out & tolerate the additional commute. Collier Row/Noak Hill, Romford or even better Brentwood. Billericay is even further out but a bit cheaper and a far superior area. I've viewed a long time ago a semi bungalow in Noak Hill, Romford - currently up for 219K. I wouldnt buy it, but for the price its not bad. Been on market since early 2008. On a fairly busy road & caravan in next doors garden, but nice back garden. Depends what you want,etc http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...auction%3Dfalse Certainly say theres a deal to be done with it cos its been on market forever?

Edited August 23, 2009 by Muskoka