Blood Bath In January For Some Retailers

[SNACR]

It's very difficult to call what will and won't make it by looking at business models, customer service instore experience etc. The fact that Woolies was obsolete and should have gone to the retail graveyard years ago is misleading. Whether the Private Equity spivs have been in and loaded them up with debt is a good indicator. However, I disagree with a lot on here about Halfords I think they have a better chance than many. PE may have actually done them a bit of good. They were a Cinderella arm of Boots (a good candidate for running into trouble post PE buyout) and seem to have flourished on their own. Also their property team have been doing a good job of getting them off the High St and into more suitable out of town units.

There also seems to be a bit of a philosophy on here of 'I'm a young adult male who grew up with computers, I'm not too keen on social interaction and most of the things I like to buy can be bought on the Internet. I don't buy things in shops therefore why should anyone else?'

The reality is that not everyone either wants or likes to buy things on the Internet. Also we sell hundreds of products that I would never see any need to buy myself yet we sell bucket loads of them.

At the moment, you'd be better off working on the basis that all retailers are dicey and trying to put a case for who will survive. The two biggest factors are the shop leases and debt burden of which very little insight can be gained by looking at the retailer's instore offer or customer service. There's one large chain that has found every little bit of extra debt has helped it carpet the UK with stores.

I think there was a comment along the lines of running businesses is very easy you just don't get into debt and spend out more than's coming in, or a similar cliche. This is all very well for a business with low fixed costs, but in retail this is very difficult. You can run your business very prudently, but you still have to compete in the same market. Take Woolies as an example you could compete with them by offering great customer service combined with high quality product at a low cost. However, you can keep beating them, but in response they just keep taking on debt up to a figure of some £400m before they finally croak. Then on top of that they embark on a well publicised and highly disingenuous closing down sale that sucks trade away.

[mikthe20]

When these retailers go under the heart will be ripped out of many town centres, leaving them looking like bombsites.

I'm not so sure. I can foresee landlords caving in with their high rents or just having to sell up due to their own circumstances. Local shopkeepers/entrepreneurs will then be able to actually buy the property they run the shop from or will have such low rents they won't be screwed by a landlord. Sustainable, local shops will then follow. A bit like STRs buying in at the bottom - people who actually want to be somewhere long term.

[SaintJay]

Monsoon / Accessorise - asking for contributions from suppliers

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5372936.ece

Also Austin Reed - quality is fine but overpriced compared to what you can get elsewhere.

I think Philip Green will close / merge at leaser one of his men's clothes retail 'names'.

+ 10 for city link - awful.

Also - take your pick from these:

- Maplin

- Borders

- Reiss (like their stuff, but way too expensive)

- JJB (currently has 95% off stickers in the window with 'futher reductions label on top of that)

I'm expecting the odd restaurant chain to go down too. Bella Pasta? Frankie & Bennie? someone like that will.

[uptherebels]

Monsoon / Accessorise - asking for contributions from suppliers

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5372936.ece

- JJB (currently has 95% off stickers in the window with 'futher reductions label on top of that)

[mikthe20]

citylink have new management in place and will turn it around Q2 making BIG inroads into cutting costs and improving customer service get some shares NOW !

Got a new jub by any chance?

Cutting costs AND improving customer service! - sounds like a perfect combination for success. City Link is the equivalent of Lada - everyone know's they're shit and their reputation is just so awful that it's almost impossible to turn round.

I've been trying to get those useless retards to deliver a Xmas present for my daughter for the last 10 days and they just lie about when it will be delivered, it's lost in the warehouse, then it's found, will be with you tomorrow, will be with you this evening, we tried to deliver this morning (I was in, no card!) - bunch of lieing towrags. I have a hunch it's being pilfered and it's clear all their employees collude in this ******** - screwing the customer is part of the corporate culture. I've been to their far-away warehouse in the past and heard people complaining about open boxes and items missing from them. So today I contacted Amazon, complained, and told them to get City Link to send it back to them and I'll buy it locally. Went to my local Argos which is 3 miles away and picked it up for the same price. Local can compete if it's done well and Argos will probably do well, especially now Woolies gone. I will never order goods from a company that uses City Link ever again (which is a shame as that includes Amazon, ebuyer and many good value retailers), but the cost in time chasing the sods up is not worth it for the saving in money.

And breathe...

[Not Long Now]

Would I be right in saying that most retailers have rent payments due on the 1st Jan also?

Could be the final straw for some...

[SNACR]

Would I be right in saying that most retailers have rent payments due on the 1st Jan also?

Could be the final straw for some...

25th Dec

[Kaine]

another for Shitty Stink (City Link), however due to their awful service they do offer super low pricing and keep picking up major contracts with the so called big boys

I would defend Parcelforce though - I changed from Shitty to Parcelforce over 18 months ago and went from a multiple weekly lost/undelivered items to hardly any with PF - in fact probably less than a dozen issues in 18 months. Parcelforce have some issues, but I'd rather they survived as they are today

[SNACR]

I'm not so sure. I can foresee landlords caving in with their high rents or just having to sell up due to their own circumstances. Local shopkeepers/entrepreneurs will then be able to actually buy the property they run the shop from or will have such low rents they won't be screwed by a landlord. Sustainable, local shops will then follow. A bit like STRs buying in at the bottom - people who actually want to be somewhere long term.

This is the endgame eventually when all the property speculators have gone to the wall. A long way from that sort of capitulation, most LLs have got their heads in the sand and aren't interested in any constructive discourse, just getting their money. They still, mistakenly, believe that people will be queueing up to rent their precious overpriced shops.

Monsoon / Accessorise - asking for contributions from suppliers

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle5372936.ece

Also Austin Reed - quality is fine but overpriced compared to what you can get elsewhere.

I think Philip Green will close / merge at leaser one of his men's clothes retail 'names'.

+ 10 for city link - awful.

Also - take your pick from these:

- Maplin

- Borders

- Reiss (like their stuff, but way too expensive)

- JJB (currently has 95% off stickers in the window with 'futher reductions label on top of that)

I'm expecting the odd restaurant chain to go down too. Bella Pasta? Frankie & Bennie? someone like that will.

Austin Reed are close to the edge. Agree with all the others as well, restaurants like La Tasca et al certainly aren't doing well. Shame about Maplins as generally have good staff and is a good underlying business model. Private Equity pushed it too far can't sustain an outlet in every market town. Hopefully someone will buy it out of administration and restructure. Borders are overpriced, but offer good experience and customer service. Hopelessly unviable though. Pizza Express/ Channel 4 chap Luke Johnson behind it presently, never really liked him.

Got a new jub by any chance?

Cutting costs AND improving customer service! - sounds like a perfect combination for success. City Link is the equivalent of Lada - everyone know's they're shit and their reputation is just so awful that it's almost impossible to turn round.

I've been trying to get those useless retards to deliver a Xmas present for my daughter for the last 10 days and they just lie about when it will be delivered, it's lost in the warehouse, then it's found, will be with you tomorrow, will be with you this evening, we tried to deliver this morning (I was in, no card!) - bunch of lieing towrags. I have a hunch it's being pilfered and it's clear all their employees collude in this ******** - screwing the customer is part of the corporate culture. I've been to their far-away warehouse in the past and heard people complaining about open boxes and items missing from them. So today I contacted Amazon, complained, and told them to get City Link to send it back to them and I'll buy it locally. Went to my local Argos which is 3 miles away and picked it up for the same price. Local can compete if it's done well and Argos will probably do well, especially now Woolies gone. I will never order goods from a company that uses City Link ever again (which is a shame as that includes Amazon, ebuyer and many good value retailers), but the cost in time chasing the sods up is not worth it for the saving in money.

And breathe...

Woolies had huge market share on toys which should most likely migrate to Argos. Unfortunately any upside for Argos will be undone by downside for Homebase which is part of the same group.

[mikthe20]

Woolies had huge market share on toys which should most likely migrate to Argos. Unfortunately any upside for Argos will be undone by downside for Homebase which is part of the same group.

True - they need to offload Homebase. I've banned my wife from going there as it's such a rip-off (not that she'll pay much attention!). It's a nicer retail environment than say a scruffy Wickes or a local builder's merchant, so women prefer going there - but she recently got a tin of paint there for £25 and I went out and got exactly the same for £10 from the local Wickes branch (which is 500 yards from Homebase). Noticeable that Homebase was mainly full of female shoppers and Wickes mainly male.

There's a bit of a theme going on here - retailers that treat the public with contempt or insult their intelligence ("up to 50% off")are the ones suffering - who'd've thunk it.

Edited December 21, 2008 by mikthe20

[SNACR]

True - they need to offload Homebase. I've banned my wife from going there as it's such a rip-off (not that she'll pay much attention!). It's a nicer retail environment than say a scruffy Wickes or a local builder's merchant, so women prefer going there - but she got a tin of paint there for £25 and I went out and got exactly the same for £10 from the local Wickes branch (which is 500 yards from Homebase). Noticeable that Homebase was mainly full of female shoppers and Wickes mainly male.

There's a bit of a theme going on here - retailers that treat the public with contempt or insult their intelligence ("up to 50% off")are the ones suffering - who'd've thunk it.

They are trying to offload it on the QT. Doubt there'll be any takers, Focus will go into administration again come early Jan, probablhy subsequent liquidation this time.

[The_Stars_Are_Aligning]

DFS have got to be on the way out - haven't they got a sale on at the moment?! They thrive on selling cheap, low quality sofas on credit that surely has dried up?

[SNACR]

DFS have got to be on the way out - haven't they got a sale on at the moment?! They thrive on selling cheap, low quality sofas on credit that surely has dried up?

Graham Kirkham who founded and runs it is very shrewd and has seen recessions before. Got done for a road rage attack though recently. He's fairly unashamed about it, doesn't pretend he's selling Chippendale furniture. Personally, I don't like selling any quality of product I wouldn't buy myself.

[Emlyn]

WH Smiths, Waterstones and Boots all had massive queues on Saturday & none had silly discounts. Gut feel says thay'll do ok. Its the ones like Wollies that go - always looked lost as a store. Similarly Halfords was one that I'd have down as a loser.

Always wonder though how many mobile phone shops the high street can support.

[payback period]

Oh another retail segment I don't get are those upper-middle market shops that sell frocks - Karen Millen, Phase 8, Noa Noa, Reiss. Always very, very empty and how large is the demographic that needs a new posh frock regularly? I never see ladies in pretty dresses in the street, seldom at the theatre, or in the windows of pricey eateries. I had a friend who'd get dolled up when hosting dinner parties but most of the guests would be more casual. Where are these ladies wearing this stuff?

Karen Millen clothes are beautiful; well tailored and good quality material. Particularly fabulous for work shirts. Best to buy in the sale though.

I guess her dresses are in demand for events such as weddings, but last time I bought one I got it at Coast.

[SNACR]

WH Smiths, Waterstones and Boots all had massive queues on Saturday & none had silly discounts. Gut feel says thay'll do ok. Its the ones like Wollies that go - always looked lost as a store. Similarly Halfords was one that I'd have down as a loser.

Always wonder though how many mobile phone shops the high street can support.

Quite a lot, someone from CPW was telling me how they have to sign very few decent contracts a day to justify the store as the direct debits keep coming in every month. Market is probably reaching maturity/saturation.

Waterstones are doing very badly, book sales, especially chav celebrity biographies threw the floor. Too many shops with the Ottakars as well. WHSmith can have big queues and everyone's buying a newspaper at 50p. Halfords are doing very well on bike sales also repairs are very lucrative for them I think. Motorworld has gone bust so a little bit of slack in that market from that.

[SNACR]

Karen Millen clothes are beautiful; well tailored and good quality material. Particularly fabulous for work shirts. Best to buy in the sale though.

I guess her dresses are in demand for events such as weddings, but last time I bought one I got it at Coast.

These are Baugur fascias and toast. Someone like Philip Green might buy the brand and merge with his existing branch network.

[Guest happy?]

Halfords will do well in a recession - people will repair their own car, and bicycles are always popular when transport costs rise.

Their management seem to have their heads screwed on as well - they recently increased floor space in most stores by 50% by putting in a mezzanine rather than re-locating - not the act of a poorly-run business.

[Pezerinno]

Do they do that well on cycle sales? I would have thought Halfords bicycle customers were similar to those that shop at PCworld while most go to a good independent or online.

[Not Long Now]

Do they do that well on cycle sales? I would have thought Halfords bicycle customers were similar to those that shop at PCworld while most go to a good independent or online.

Speaking of cycles...I think Raleigh are doing OK.

And camping / outdoor type chains will also do well (is it Blacks?)

[SNACR]

Speaking of cycles...I think Raleigh are doing OK.

And camping / outdoor type chains will also do well (is it Blacks?)

No Blacks are toast. Cotswold outdoor supposedly doing quite well I believe.

[Pezerinno]

How are Millets doing?

[Not Long Now]

This article (posted on another thread):

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-...th-1207378.html

Insolvency experts believe another 10 to 15 well-known retail chains could follow Woolworths into the history books as shoppers rein in spending.

Speculation is rife that the music retailer Zavvi, fashion group The Officers Club and the sportswear outlet JJB are heading for a financial crunch.

[Jonnybegood]

I think one of the bed companies will go to the wall, Bensons or Dreams.

I think it will be dreams, everytime I pop in I am surrounded by staff, the store is empty.

How often do people buy beds? matresses?. Lots of places doing beds/matresses, indys, argos, homebase, online.

Think people pop in to try the beds and then buy elsewhere.

Laura Ashley another like the pier looking a bit ropey

[Not Long Now]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...-retailers.html

Top accountancy firms are already believed to be working on over a dozen controversial pre-pack deals, a number of which are in the retail sector.

Pre-packaged administrations enable a company to prepare for administration and to swiftly be bought by new owners. These new owners can be the directors of the former company, with reduced liabilities which often leaves creditors out of pocket.