What If We'd Had The Internet In The Last Recession?

[researchmug]

Would we have read just as many armageddon scenarios, predicting economic collapse?

The other thing that's bothering me about a lot of the blogs etc. predicting collapse is that they often have something to sell Like gold or sensationalist books etc.

Was there any evidence of this in 1990/1991?

[Deckard]

Would we have read just as many armageddon scenarios, predicting economic collapse?

The other thing that's bothering me about a lot of the blogs etc. predicting collapse is that they often have something to sell Like gold or sensationalist books etc.

Was there any evidence of this in 1990/1991?

You got it, dude: most doom mongers have a VI and are peddling something (easy to spot most of the time).

IMO the internet is a powerful factor behind the speed of HPC this time round: news on price declines were mainly spread by mord of mouth in the last crash, now they are there for all to see on the net.

[interestrateripoff]

The last recession was not led by the failure of the banking system.

The amount of debt isn't like it is now.

[Deckard]

I would have given us all something to do instead of daytime TV and the dole queue....

I do believe though, internet is at fault for huge rise in conspiracy beliefs...gives people access to a wealth of information, but doesn't improve their capacity to use or analyze it.

You mean there are no six foot tall lizards trying to take over the world???

[porca misèria]

Um, which last recession?

ISTR losing my job[1] in 1992 and using the internet as my means of finding a new one.

[1] Actually it was a fixed-term contract that ended at a bad time.

[Papa Serf]

Maybe the bubble wouldn't have been so big without the internet, btlers have their websites too, people can't be bothered to work it out themselves so rely on some VI website instead....sorry no offence hpc.co.uk

[Deckard]

Well the 6 foot lizards are true, but they can't be bothered with world domination anymore. They found wikipedia, youtube and facebook and got distracted...

let's hope they are not on HPC...

[Nicolaj]

I just hope all these people at work..typing away on forums and getting paid for it...have pc's at home when they lose their jobs..

[Papa Serf]

I just hope all these people at work..typing away on forums and getting paid for it...have pc's at home when they lose their jobs..

yep I've sneaked a few out the back door

[NotMyHouse]

If there had been sites like this on the Interwebby thing in 1990, I wouldn't have bought a house when prices were starting to go down.

[bear-curious]

Really interesting topic. All I can say is that internet functions as a kind of word of mouth, except it has much more of the sanction of collective belief about it. I think this does change the way people act on the information they get. It did in my case, as 6 months back I was getting hints from people I knew not to buy a property - relatives inside the industry no less! - but I just didn't want to hear what they had to say. It was only once I encountered this site and got the measure of the bearish viewpoint that I realised what a mong I was being.

I suppose if you split the crisis up into measurable factors such as unsustainable levels debt and imponderables such as confidence then yes, the int0rwebz will contribute to the latter. But it's the former that is directly causal, and the web's got bagger all to do with that.

[Guest theboltonfury]

If there had been sites like this on the Interwebby thing in 1990, I wouldn't have bought a house when prices were starting to go down.

And I would have had much easier access to quality porn at the touch of a mouse

[Uriah Heap]

It wouldn't have made any difference at all. People use information to justify their opinion not to form it.

[Bubble&Squeak]

Um, which last recession?

ISTR losing my job[1] in 1992 and using the internet as my means of finding a new one.

[1] Actually it was a fixed-term contract that ended at a bad time.

So who was your ISP

[Orbital]

The other thing that's bothering me about a lot of the blogs etc. predicting collapse is that they often have something to sell Like gold or sensationalist books etc.

Even this site is well covered in ads!

So who was your ISP

you only have to check the way back machine (www.archive.org/web/web.php) to know that although there were small communities I can confidently say that finding a job through the internet in '92 was clearly an exception.

Edited December 10, 2008 by Orbital

[bearORbullENIGMA]

I do believe though, internet is at fault for huge rise in conspiracy beliefs...gives people access to a wealth of information, but doesn't improve their capacity to use or analyze it.

Yes what is astonishing, is how the internet has also given us access to irrefutable evidence (via declassified internal records) that our governments have been involved in mass slaughter abroad, but still people ignore it.

I mean, take a look at this irrefutable evidence (declassified CIA & State Dept. docs) that America funded & trained those involved in the slaughter of 200,000 people in Guatemala after they overthrew the democracy there:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=NgFMREdwQwA

Then there's the irrefutable evidence that America overthrew democracy in Iran in '53, Brazil in '64, Indonesia in '65, Greece in '67 & Chile in '73 & that the CIA & MI6 sent death lists to Suharto to help him slaughter 600,000 people:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=QP8JyXZavQM

(check out the links to declassified CIA docs proving it in the video info section)

[SNACR]

I just hope all these people at work..typing away on forums and getting paid for it...have pc's at home when they lose their jobs..

Yes I think it'll be interesting to see how ebay and online shopping go when people can't do it on work's time.

[SNACR]

Slightly off topic, but see what you're saying.

That's just apathy though. Saw a piece on Jon Stewart last night - interviewing some guy who wrote a book on interrogation techniques in Iraq. Made me remember how shocked I was when I first heard what we're doing there and Guantanamo.

US and UK have been breaking Geneva convention for years and we just sweep it under the carpet. Time was that would have benn HUGE and completely unacceptable.

Back on topic, internet info is largely subject to "confirmation bias" effect - we just use it to confirm what we already believe and ignore the messy stuff that doesn't fit...

I can spend ages reading articles and comments on The Guardian website and they rarely convince me to change my mind. It depends how comfortable with your own views or open-minded you are. I will re-evaluate my opinions if someone puts up a good argument.

[researchmug]

My friend was doing a research session on monday, and the interviewees were studying the woolworths catalogue. One of the interviewees was under the impression that woolworths was a company that was 'going places" and was completely unaware that it was in fact breathing it's last breath.

My point is as they say that the average person is pretty stupid, but up to half the population are even more stupid than that. There are so many people in this country who could give you a detailed run down of all the major events of Coronation street or the winners of the FA cup since 1960, but haven't got a clue about what's happening in the real world.

I was in the barbers the other day and the news was on the telly in the corner of the room. The customers were chatting with the barber as a succession of kids winced there way through severe haircuts. Anyway every time a celebrity or sport item came up, the conversation stopped and everyone became silently transfixed by the little box in the corner, even the barber watched and was somehow able to cut hair without the use of his eyes. But then as soon as something serious came on the news, economy, natural disaster, politics etc. the box was suddenly ignored and the banter about tv and shopping and the local football club started up again. It happened repeatedly for half an hour. I don't think people want to know whats really happening around them and to them. They don't want to think about it.

Ultimately it doesn't matter how effective the internet becomes in making the truth available. The majority simply won't pay attention because they choose ignorance.

Edited December 11, 2008 by researchmug

[Bloo Loo]

You got it, dude: most doom mongers have a VI and are peddling something (easy to spot most of the time).

IMO the internet is a powerful factor behind the speed of HPC this time round: news on price declines were mainly spread by mord of mouth in the last crash, now they are there for all to see on the net.

yeah, like changes in lending criteria are spread around the net. I suppose the bigger effect is that people will be expecting a knockback on their liar loan, whereas in GC1 it was a shock and an insult.

[lets get it right]

Would we have read just as many armageddon scenarios, predicting economic collapse?

The other thing that's bothering me about a lot of the blogs etc. predicting collapse is that they often have something to sell Like gold or sensationalist books etc.

Was there any evidence of this in 1990/1991?

I do not believe the internet is having any effect on the situation.

In fact, in terms of galvanising people to act in a certain way ... to desist from buying houses in an overheated market, for example ... it has had no discernible effect.

For every web site encouraging people to do one thing, there are plenty more encouraging them to do the opposite.

The way people act now is primarily the same as it was in the last recession - the media still form people's views.

Which is more influential - the BBC web site or this site?

[porca misèria]

you only have to check the way back machine (www.archive.org/web/web.php) to know that although there were small communities I can confidently say that finding a job through the internet in '92 was clearly an exception.

The archive deals with the web, which is a recent (1990s) development. The 'net has been around much longer.

To answer the poster who asked about my ISP, I was using JANET (the UK universities network) at the time. I was also on from home via modem dialup to BT's "prestel" since 1987, BITNET (IBM's "Because It's Time" net) thereafter, and online in some form from work since my very first graduate job in 1983.

[Guest barebear]

The internet has made the world go faster, faster to look for jobs,faster to get things done.

The last crash you relied on the weekly job papers, that was it !! Oh and the ever helpful job center of course.

But there is another big factor and that is the mobile phone,didnt have that much last time round.

[mitchbux]

The archive deals with the web, which is a recent (1990s) development. The 'net has been around much longer.

To answer the poster who asked about my ISP, I was using JANET (the UK universities network) at the time. I was also on from home via modem dialup to BT's "prestel" since 1987, BITNET (IBM's "Because It's Time" net) thereafter, and online in some form from work since my very first graduate job in 1983.

You are making me feel old now.

I'd forgotten how early I had my first taste of email. It was my final year at Uni 92-93.

My then BF was a graduate trainee with ICL and a friend was at HP. They used to send me emails via JANET. I remember you could see which servers the mails had gone through, and the HP ones went via Germany and then the US iirc.

Part way through the year we had our access pulled, and could only be reinstated with signed consent from a lecturer. Apparently there was too much non-work traffic that was costing the Uni a lot of money.

When I started work the following year the company had one computer that could send and receive emails for the whole company.

How things have changed!