Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
the primitive

Halifax Nov Down 2.6% Mom, 14.9% Yoy

Recommended Posts

this one

_45266581_house_prices_04_12.gif

to my mind the two latest sets of figures show why the 3mnth average is better. its probable that neither -0.4 nor -2.6 were truely representative of this month, and the figure sits somewhere inbetween. no-one was winging about the average when the -0.4 figure was out, but they're on it again now. If you look at the graph the line is fairly straight, albeit bumpy. I'd not get too excited either way by one months figures

This confirms what I remember.

When the two figures diverged in the past it was the Nationwide that had to correct itself and get in line

with the Halifax.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
January, February and March....the "suicide" months..... :ph34r:

seriously? what is the normal trend for these months, low buying = less drops or vast drops as sellers want to get rid???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at my area in sussex I think we at about 20-22% down, but I think its hard to keep up with the pace and lack of transactions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Mr Parry
Wow 2.6% I wonder how the gubbermint will spin this one out? 12 months ago a 2.6% fall would have had this thread on fire!!! Are we not bothered about house prices anymore?

:rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7764272.stm

The Halifax will be publishing its formal house price prediction for 2009 later this month.

"We have said we were comfortable with the consensus that prices would fall by about 20% over the course of 2008 and 2009," said Mr Ellis.

"But we do need to look at that again," he added.

Yes, I think you do Mr Ellis. A long, long hard look. 20% over the course of 2009 alone perhaps?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Wow 2.6% I wonder how the gubbermint will spin this one out? 12 months ago a 2.6% fall would have had this thread on fire!!! Are we not bothered about house prices anymore?

I think a main reason for the skeptical response is that every mont we are fed these figures 10% yoy, 15% yoy, 16.2% yoy, but a trip round rightmoce and prices of decent houses just aren't budging yet because of the lack of forced sales, which is what this lunatic govt is trying to avoice with this ******ing stupid free mortgages for two years nonsense.

When rightmove start showing decent detached houses - and lots of them - in the south easy for £165,000, then the celebrations begin. We're not there yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Steve Cook
seriously? what is the normal trend for these months, low buying = less drops or vast drops as sellers want to get rid???

Just recalling my university days. I read Psychology. These months are when people are most likely to top themselves. Dark, grey, cold, wet and a massive financial and emotional hangover from Christmas. It's worth remembering that the actual date of the Christmas festivities was originally hijacked from the older, pagan tradition of a mid-winter piss-up. Anything to cheer themselves up in the dark months.

Given the sh*t that is hitting the economy at the moment and, given the excruciating timing of the final lifting of the self delusional veil from the wider population's eyes, the next few months are going to be especially psychologically hard for many of them.

Expect a complete collapse in house prices come March

Edited by Steve Cook

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
C'mon people. If we are heding towards 60%+ falls, then we have to have these sort of figures.

We shouldn't be surprised.

The next few months are going to be interesting, now we are out of the JASON period....

I was trying to find your previous post explaining what Jason was but couldn't find it. Any chance of giving us the link please?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This confirms what I remember.

When the two figures diverged in the past it was the Nationwide that had to correct itself and get in line

with the Halifax.

Also the graph shows the annual rate of change, not the absolute change in prices. This months Nationwide 0.5% was less than the figure dropping out from last year, so the annual rate of falls from nationwide increased this month from -14.5% to -14%.

The other unknown is sample size (or volume). If either of them had a much lower number of transaction than a normal month then this could quite easily skew the data, maybe nationwide didn't approve many mortgages and the ones they did were in areas seeing lower falls than than the average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just recalling my university days. I read Psychology. These months are when people are most likely to top themselves. Dark, grey, cold, wet and a massive financial and emotional hangover from Christmas. It's worth remembering that the actual date of the Christmas festivities was originally hijacked from the older, pagan tradition of a mid-winter piss-up. Anything to cheer themselves up in the dark months.

Given the sh*t that is hitting the economy at the moment and, given the excruciating timing of the final lifting of the self delusional veil from the wider population's eyes, the next few months are going to be especially psychologically hard for many of them.

i agree totally. like i said somewhere else - this country is going to be about six months away from tent cities in the mud and cold for the next couple of years. the winters will be particularly hard to face in these times of economic ruin and governmental incompetence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Am I being a bit thick here

12 months ago price was 195092

today 163605

I make it about 19.5% , am I doing something wrong??????????????????????????????

Yes:

163605 up to 195092 is a 19.3% rise

195092 down to 163605 is a 16.1% fall

Think of:

A 100% rise (say from 100k to 200k) needs a 50% fall (from 200k to 100k) to get back to where you started.

Cheers...

Edited by ItsColdUpHere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Mail re Mortgage deferred payment scheme.

The deferred element is built back into the overall mortgage to be repaid after the agreed holiday period- POSSIBLY AT A HIGHER

INTEREST RATE, so the lender makes money in the end.

Another non-starter from no more boom and bust Brown, they will all rent and get their rent paid for free.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I was trying to find your previous post explaining what Jason was but couldn't find it. Any chance of giving us the link please?

JASON = July August September October November

Supposedly the golden period for house sales. From here on in, sales volumes (and hence prices) will plummet.

Who wants to be buying a house or moving in January? Cold and wet, short working hours, lots of things to go wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those of us who have been following the increasingly desperate and ludicrous statements about how much higher prices are than 'x' years ago, comes this extract from today's release:

The UK average house price is 124% higher than ten years ago. The current average price is more than £90,000 higher than in November 1998 (£73,129).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For those of us who have been following the increasingly desperate and ludicrous statements about how much higher prices are than 'x' years ago, comes this extract from today's release:

The UK average house price is 124% higher than ten years ago. The current average price is more than £90,000 higher than in November 1998 (£73,129).

apparently house prices are higher than they were during the spanish armada as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For those of us who have been following the increasingly desperate and ludicrous statements about how much higher prices are than 'x' years ago, comes this extract from today's release:

The UK average house price is 124% higher than ten years ago. The current average price is more than £90,000 higher than in November 1998 (£73,129).

jokers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Mail re Mortgage deferred payment scheme.

The deferred element is built back into the overall mortgage to be repaid after the agreed holiday period- POSSIBLY AT A HIGHER

INTEREST RATE, so the lender makes money in the end.

Another non-starter from no more boom and bust Brown, they will all rent and get their rent paid for free.

Several years ago I lost my job and was struggling paying my mortgage. The mortgage lender suggested I take

a year mortgage holiday and it would be added to the end of my 25 year mortgage.

I remember it seemed that it hepled them more than it helped me.

Someone I knew had a friend who was a bank manager and he asked his advice for me.

The bank manager said whatever you do, the banks never lose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

man thats more like it 2.6 is giving me some hope again i ever feel all warm inside today knowing that were are back on track.

living at home at 28 after owning your own home in 2005 is horrid and waiting is also horrid but maybe just maybe if it carrys on like this i wont have to wait forever

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Nationwide have a head office in Maidstone. Sibley lives there.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

I would also like to take this opportunity to ask my remaining tenants to vacate my property. It's for your own good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is this a shock to anyone?

We all know what's happening on the ground is much worse than has been reported by the HPIs. Prices are at least 20% down, and some properties/areas down by much more than that. Well now they are finally catching up. I am not shocked at all. As others have said, once the next quarter drops out of the YoY figures, we'll be staring at worse than -20%, which is far more accurate. If you look at the US Case-Shiller index, they are showing falls of -22% YoY. There is not reason to think our HPIs will not show the same thing in a few months' time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
totally agree with this

what we have witnessed, so far, is the mere aperitif to the main course. Due to be served up mid 09

Could easily be wrong, but I don't think 2009 will match 2008. This crash has so far been characterized by much steeper falls than GC1 which could have been be exacerbated by faster communications/internet news about the crash and of course credit crunch. I suspect once you get to >30% down early next year you'll be biting so hard into negative equity territory that transactions will dry up and be reduced to forced sales and upsizing only and the rate of drop will taper off. Still 40% off nominal, ~60% real to the bottom my guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For those of us who have been following the increasingly desperate and ludicrous statements about how much higher prices are than 'x' years ago, comes this extract from today's release:

The UK average house price is 124% higher than ten years ago. The current average price is more than £90,000 higher than in November 1998 (£73,129).

It's nice to have something to aim for isn't it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.