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Land Registry Admits Fiddling Figures


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Linky

The Government's official house price index, produced by the Land Registry, has been accused of misleading homebuyers and policymakers after it emerged that it excludes repossessions and auctions on the grounds that they do not reflect the 'full market value' of the sale.

In the past the gap between the figures has been attributed to time-lag differences. But concern is growing that the Land Registry figures, regarded as the 'gold standard' of house price data and used by the Bank of England in setting interest rates, may be fundamentally flawed, as repossessions are ignored.

More than 45,000 repossessions are expected this year - around 6 per cent of all property sales - and several economists have forecast lenders taking the keys back on as many as 100,000 homes in 2009. The previous record was set in 1991 when the number of repossessions topped 75,000.

A spokeswoman for the Land Registry said: 'Repossessions are excluded as they are "commercial" sales and do not represent full market value.

That's alright then.

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Linky

That's alright then.

"...on the grounds that they do not represent the full market value..." ???????

If this is true, it's an absolute scandal.

What these sales represent is precisely the market value of the properties.

It amounts to deliberate falsification of the figures - no surprise there, then.

Who will have instructed the LR to do this?

No doubt Caroline Flint would deny all knowledge.

Edited by Mrs Bear
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"...on the grounds that they do not represent the full market value..." ???????

If this is true, it's an absolute scandal.

What these sales represent is precisely the market value of the properties.

It amounts to deliberately falsification of the figures - no surprise there, then.

It's the same thing as "off-balance sheet" stuff -- that has been part and parcel of the Lies and Fraud of the last 10+ years --- i.e. Enron onwards....

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Repossessions are excluded as they are "commercial" sales and do not represent full market value

Market value is the phighest price the market will put on the sale, if the sale takes place at auction then the highest price is accepted and hence sets the market value. I swear to god if a labour MP ever shows up on my doorstep I cannot be held responsible for my actions.

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"...on the grounds that they do not represent the full market value..." ???????

If this is true, it's an absolute scandal.

What these sales represent is precisely the market value of the properties.

It amounts to deliberately falsification of the figures - no surprise there, then.

This is an absolute disgrace.

I agree with the sentiment that sales that are actually taking place represent fair market value irrespective of the reason that the sales are taking place.

We should not be surprised that our government and the regulatory regime that they have installed are complicit in trying to hide the truth from the public.

This is similar to the recent accouting rule changes which allow banks to classify weak assets as "available for sale" which lets them stop taking mark to market (and hence income) hits on the assets as prices drop.

The fact that our government and their oversight regime are trying to hide facts from us raises my confidence in a prediction of a house price crash more severe than many of us could have reasonably expected even 3 months ago.

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It's the same thing as "off-balance sheet" stuff -- that has been part and parcel of the Lies and Fraud of the last 10+ years --- i.e. Enron onwards....

You beat me to it. I need to learn to type faster.

When our own government starts to act like Enron (and encourages our banks to do the same), we are in very deep trouble.

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I think the banks have been potentially stuffed here as well, consider if a bank uses thier automated valuation for magage purposes then the data supplied by the land registry/government is flawed and an overvaluation results would they not have a case for legal action in respect of misleading information for which they have paid resulting in losses. If that were the case would we again as tax payers endup taking another hit in the ensuing legal action against HMG

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I've just read this story in the paper and I'm shocked.

This mad idea that houses are sold below 'market value' has even seeped into the Land Registry! Surely, they know that when a mortgagee in possession sells a property they have to ensure that they get the best price that can be achieved at the time. IT IS THE MARKET PRICE. Otherwise, mortgagors would be suing the banks wholesale for not achieving the highest offer.

I can't believe it.

p

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Look guys, I think this is going to turn out to be a mistake. I have invited HM Land Registry to clarify what The Guardian has said and we should see some form of rebuttal soon.

EDIT:Couldn't spell Guardian

Edited by Driver
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I've just read this story in the paper and I'm shocked.

This mad idea that houses are sold below 'market value' has even seeped into the Land Registry! Surely, they know that when a mortgagee in possession sells a property they have to ensure that they get the best price that can be achieved at the time. IT IS THE MARKET PRICE. Otherwise, mortgagors would be suing the banks wholesale for not achieving the highest offer.

I can't believe it.

p

If the sentiment on this site as to your "real" identity is anywhere near accurate, you are one of the few people here who is in a position to actually help redress this shameful manipulation.

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Guest sillybear2

The LR and government can place its head in the sand (or up its own ar$e) and pretend non of this is happening, but it doesn't change a thing, in many ways it's good they're in denial, by the time 50% drops are the norm the scale of the problem for the banks will be beyond all of them.

By the end of 2009 all banks aside from HSBC will be 100% nationalised anyway, we're only at the end of the beginning.

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Look guys, I think this is going to turn out to be a mistake. I have invited HM Land Registry to clarify what the Gurdian has said and we should see some form of rebuttal soon.

I hope so.

It takes a lot to send my blood pressure to dangerous levels, but this was a ten out of ten.

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Guest sillybear2

It's not like it really matters anymore, the CPI figures are bull$hit, have been for years, so are the unemployment numbers not to mention the crime statistics, so is this any surprise? We're governed by a bunch of self-serving liars and cheats so it's to be expected, it would actually turn out to be a scandal if they managed to publish honest figures.

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Repossessions are excluded as they are "commercial" sales and do not represent full market value.

Out******ingrageous!

I hope Vince Cable or some other conscienscious opposition spokesman will be asking questions in the House about this.

If the price obtained at open public auction is not "full market value" then what the hell is? It doesn't matter whether it's a Rembrandt or a Wimpey slavebox or a Victorian snuffbox that being sold: the price obtained in a pre-advertised and open public auction is, by definition, the full market value.

As for "commercial" sales, that ******** too. What the difference between the commerciality of Wimpey selling two hundred houses and the commerciality of HBOS selling two hundred houses?

The sheer extent and blatant criminality of Blairite ZaNuLabour and their bankster buddies is breathtaking. They are deliberately cooking the books to try to give artificial support to the housing market by misleading both buyers and sellers as to the true extent of the property price crash.

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Linky
But concern is growing that the Land Registry figures, regarded as the 'gold standard' of house price data and used by the Bank of England in setting interest rates, may be fundamentally flawed....

Oh FFS, please don't tell me this is some goddam Nu_lab leak designed to soften us up for inclusion of repos, just so they can have yet another crummy excuse for cutting interest rates further.

Nonetheless, the revelation does much to pull the rug from under all those nicely smoothed property charts that imply it is a volatility-free, one-way bet, and explains why most ordinary folk find it hard to equate what happened in the last crash (deep falls) with what the land registry graphs depict. Anyone who has been conned into accepting the Land Reg's view of the housing market must be feeling pretty pissed-off by this revelation. Indeed, I wonder whether the Land Reg has been complicit to misselling of this asset class?

Moreover:

'Repossessions are excluded as they are "commercial" sales and do not represent full market value."

And sales to a developer? Are they not "commercial". Prior to the bust, garden-grabbers near me had been paying 4 times area averages for property. Are these included in the Land Reg, and if so, why?

One also wonders why price movements in the stock market produced by block trades are not similary massaged from the indices.

Clearly, the property market in Britain is one of the most massaged and manipulated markets in the entire western world. Whether it be fiannacing or valuation, the whole market has a distict whiff of Enron about it.

Edited by Sledgehead
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Guest sillybear2
The sheer extent and blatant criminality of Blairite ZaNuLabour and their bankster buddies is breathtaking. They are deliberately cooking the books to try to give artificial support to the housing market by misleading both buyers and sellers as to the true extent of the property price crash.

The market is the market, they cannot change that, if anything they're storing up trouble and f****g over the banks! Own goal.

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If smaller lenders and surveyors are using land registry data for valuations then the loans they are making are riskier, potentially already underwater before (even with lumpier deposits) the ink is dried on the mortgage application and advance.

Hell an high water are being moved to get the lenders to carry on over lending and buyers over bidding in this market, at whatever cost.

Edited by OnlyMe
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To repeat what I said on the other thread on this subject - I don't think this is right as the LR have no way of knowing which properties are auction sales, which auctioned properties are repos or, indeed, which properties are repo's full stop.

As far as I'm aware al price data comes from the TR1 form which is used to effect the actual legal transfer of the property and this form does not contain any info as to whether it was a repo or was sold at auction.

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It's not like it really matters anymore, the CPI figures are bull$hit, have been for years, so are the unemployment numbers not to mention the crime statistics, so is this any surprise? We're governed by a bunch of self-serving liars and cheats so it's to be expected, it would actually turn out to be a scandal if they managed to publish honest figures.

Quite. What amuses me is for all of what you say, the most talked about "manipulation" is that of the so-called "plunge protection team". Makes me laugh really. If people are so into that concept, you should be able to mke a fortune betting against it.

Say waht you like about stock markets: their price discovery is second to none.

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