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When Will You Buy ?


BXLONDONMAN
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How many people will admit to wanting to buy say now ?

how many peoply will buy next year ?

or how many people will buy in the next 2 or 3 years ?

or do you never want to buy ?

just want to see how many people on HPC know what they want to do....?

RENT will it keep going down,,or will it go up next year ?

Hopefully will buy around 2011-2012 which should be a good time and with a 25%-50% deposit on a 3/4-bed detached house as first home.

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- but what the hell; trying to catch the absolute bottom is going to be a mug's game, and if I stiff a few grand because I timed it a few weeks wrong either side then I won't feel to bad...

B

is this really true ? I would have thought that the troughs in property busts are long compared to the market peaks .. so why all this scaremongering of missing the bottom ? Is there anyone on here who 'missed' the trough in the last bust due to waiting for the correct time with cash / mortgage ready to go ? I would be interested to know ..

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is this really true ? I would have thought that the troughs in property busts are long compared to the market peaks .. so why all this scaremongering of missing the bottom ? Is there anyone on here who 'missed' the trough in the last bust due to waiting for the correct time with cash / mortgage ready to go ? I would be interested to know ..

Agreed, there is slack water aroudn the trough. It doens't dip and tehn shoot up. It dips and stays there for years.

It will obviously depend how fast it dips but my guess would be that that houses will drop to the level where I begin to detect value at end 2009 / start 2010.

I wouldn't expect them to be going up any time soon after that but that wouldn't be a reason to hold off.

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There are 3 factors which i consider very important in my desision to buy.

1 Having a job.

2 The house prices find a new and stable low affordable price range.

3 Stable economy and job market, ie uneployment levels stabilise and show signs of improvment.

3 other important factors affecting my desision to buy.

1 Interest rates, and taxes.

2 any mini Quad,s running round

3 any future mrs Quad,s views on things

probably other factors but this wil do for now.

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There are a few necessary market conditions before it is a time to buy :

1. Spread betting prices for the future and current prices are in line. [Currently a 20% discount]

2. The average price is a reasonable multiple of average income. [Currently 6x and not 3.5x]

3. Prices have been reasonably stable for 6 months. [Not even close]

4. Prices in California have started to pick up gently. [Ditto]

5. Rental yields on investment properties rented to families are over 10%. [currently about 5%]

By my benchmarks, there is no value in buying at all at current prices.

I do hope that most of us here are prepared to be "right" about both the crash in prices and the time to buy a house.

There isn't really much point to being interested in prices if we are not also selling and buying when prices get to the levels that we think require action.

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How many people will admit to wanting to buy say now ?

how many peoply will buy next year ?

or how many people will buy in the next 2 or 3 years ?

or do you never want to buy ?

just want to see how many people on HPC know what they want to do....?

RENT will it keep going down,,or will it go up next year ?

I expect to buy in 2012 - 2014. By that time I will be able to retire and so I can buy anywhere, and I think the graph of hp will be around the bottom. So I should be able to buy a cheap house for cash, hopefully a bargain at auction.
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quote the end is nigh -I thought you said it had dropped in value the other day?

Either way, good on you for finding somewhere you really like and are happy with. That's what houses should be for.

You missed part to of my post mate ;) see below

I assume you are not in the UK?!

Nothing but nothing is worth more now than in March 2008 in the UK, sorry...

(assuming you paid roughly market price at the time of course :huh: )

Did I fuk no! As a memeber of this site for years and one of MSE's biggest gobshight bears you dont think I bought any old place do you?

It was a fukin shlt pit, but, to coin a phrase it had MASSIVE potential.

Were about 80% of the way through the refurb now, but have bottomed out on cash. Just kitchen and driveway to go.

Heres zooplas take on it. It reckons it has dropped 30 grand and says its now worth 270....we paid 170

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/14-stokes...bl9-8db/2110891

Do you like this kitchen?

http://www.diy-kitchens.com/shopdisplayproducts.asp?id=816

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quote the end is nigh -I thought you said it had dropped in value the other day?

Either way, good on you for finding somewhere you really like and are happy with. That's what houses should be for.

You missed part to of my post mate ;) see below

Did I fuk no! As a memeber of this site for years and one of MSE's biggest gobshight bears you dont think I bought any old place do you?

It was a fukin shlt pit, but, to coin a phrase it had MASSIVE potential.

Were about 80% of the way through the refurb now, but have bottomed out on cash. Just kitchen and driveway to go.

Heres zooplas take on it. It reckons it has dropped 30 grand and says its now worth 270....we paid 170

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/14-stokes...bl9-8db/2110891

Do you like this kitchen?

http://www.diy-kitchens.com/shopdisplayproducts.asp?id=816

Zoopla's valuations are completely mad. There are some "studio flats" near me, which are basically a kitchen plus a shower room. They are sitting on a chalk mine, and falling into it. Zoopla values them at £127k. None of them have ever sold for more than £80k, and that was before they discovered the presence of the chalk mine, and needless to say, before the crash. In the last two years since the chalk mine was discovered, none of them have sold at all. They rent for about £425/month so even on rental yield basis, not considering the structural problems, £127k is a completely mad valuation.

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happy to buy now if i see i place me and my wife agree on (not as unlikely as it sounds) and can get 30% off peak. appreciate i could do more, but sold up a few years ago so have money in the bank.

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The short answer is, I'll buy when people stop asking me when I'm going to buy.

The slightly longer answer is, I'll buy when prices have been stable or rising slightly for 12 months.

Rather than use an "trend analysis" of the market, I will buy when I think prices look reasonable.

I think around 40% fall from peak should be about right....

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This thread is a tiny oasis of sanity. No-one waiting for the 95% drop from peak?

Anyway, 35% off peak is in my mind. We're halfway there - will belooking in the summer, although thisngs may have changed by then.

Not sure about the oasis of sanity - this economic madness has bankrupt nearly every bank in the country, I can't see prices rising for 5-10 years. These newbuild flats, of which 1million are empty, are going to drag the market down for years to come.

I think buying a house to live in is great and I will be doing so in the next 2 years, but if anybody thinks it will rise in value significantly (unless you buy very well) will be very disapointed.

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Not sure about the oasis of sanity - this economic madness has bankrupt nearly every bank in the country, I can't see prices rising for 5-10 years. These newbuild flats, of which 1million are empty, are going to drag the market down for years to come.

I think buying a house to live in is great and I will be doing so in the next 2 years, but if anybody thinks it will rise in value significantly (unless you buy very well) will be very disapointed.

What? No more "30% profit on a house for a £10 can of magnolia"?

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What? No more "30% profit on a house for a £10 can of magnolia"?

:lol::lol: Property porn on TV has alot to answer for.

My mate bought as a FTB in March for a massaively overpriced terrace that had quite obviously been through a developer who, by all accounts, made 40k for a lick of paint and new kitchen.

My mate made a point of showing off the "original features" the first time I went around there... :wacko:

Said developer must have been laughing his head off when they agreed his asking price. Said mate is now sh*ting himself.

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why are people in such a rush? I luckily sold my first time buy just at the beginning of the last crash in 1989 and rented until 1995, bought in december 95 for £113,000 and been here ever since. Going by local sales it apparently was "worth" over £400k last year, which is crazy. So from the last crash, prices collapsed then bumped along the bottom for a period of 5 or 6 years . Media/sheeple were stating then that the housing market was dead forever, nobody would ever buy again etc etc. But they did, of course. This time around things are much worse economically, prices haven't yet really crashed. Affordability constraints haven't yet bitten fully. I can't see prices bottoming out and stabilising for a good while yet, say 2013/14 at the earliest, even without a depression... with one... who knows when? So why rush? If we have deflation, it may be 15 years or longer. Those highly leveraged folks need good jobs and inflation before they will be in a position to consider selling. I'm looking for at least 50% off peak 2007 prices before I will even consider looking and that's probably still far too high. The time to start looking is when everyone isn't interested anymore, when they consider houses as something to steer well clear of. If you do the opposite to the sheeple it often works out quite well but consider the timing. Wait for the volatility to drop off completely.

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I'm going to wait 12 months then see where we are. I'm in no desperate hurry to buy as not owning property gives me freedom, but long term it is my intention to own a home.

What i'm really looking for is a change in the general populations attitude. Once the message has sunk in that property is falling and will continue to fall and, shock horror, might not go back up that, i feel, is the time to buy. To many peoople still, amagingly, view this is a temporary blip! :lol:

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Zoopla's valuations are completely mad. There are some "studio flats" near me, which are basically a kitchen plus a shower room. They are sitting on a chalk mine, and falling into it. Zoopla values them at £127k. None of them have ever sold for more than £80k, and that was before they discovered the presence of the chalk mine, and needless to say, before the crash. In the last two years since the chalk mine was discovered, none of them have sold at all. They rent for about £425/month so even on rental yield basis, not considering the structural problems, £127k is a completely mad valuation.

Yeah I know mate, dont worry I take what zoopla says with a pinch of salt. If someone offered me 300 grand with a suitecase of cash today I wouldnt sell.

I got slated (but some nice comments) when I posted on here, that I was buying,but sometimes its not just about the money. Having said that this place should be able to handle 30/40% falls and still avoid negative equity

added commas and shlt :)

Edited by Nelly
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This thread is a tiny oasis of sanity. No-one waiting for the 95% drop from peak?

Anyway, 35% off peak is in my mind. We're halfway there - will belooking in the summer, although thisngs may have changed by then.

I think your on the right track...i think it will be between 30% to 50% off peak 2007 prices..depending on which part of the uk you live. by the end of 2009..

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Christmas 2010 is looking good for me, if prices are sane and I'm settled. If not, a decent rental is no problem, and the added ease of moving around is helpful for chasing promotions. If the Tory Government doesn't (well, it won't, will it) fix the boom and bust addiction to housing debt, or the tax breaks for landlords, then I might rent for myself and buy somewhere good value to rent out. My turn to be BTL scum, and all that. Should be able to get a decent place in the Midlands for cash by then.

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