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Chichester Prices


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I'm sure I've read recently that Chichester is an area with one of the highest disposable incomes per resident in the country - sorry I don't have the link - but this would suggest low or no mortgages for many residents. Maybe this is one of the factors causing price resilience in the area.

It also seems a nice place to live - large enough to have things going on but small enough to be manageable - so I suspect it'll weather the storm better than most areas.

My hunch would be that 2010 is going to be a very rocky year for property prices in general (and 2011) as well. The market will be greatly influenced by one single event: the general election. If Brown is re-elected I think the markets will react badly as his entire economic strategy is based on the getting him back into Number 10. So we could see Sterling coming under pressure and interest rates rising. Alternatively, if Cameron gets in (as seems likely) the UK better brace itself for an emergency budget in the weeks after the election and an austerity package based on a quick look at the real books and a "it's much worse than we thought" budget.

Either scenario suggests holding off on buying at least until the back-end of 2010 and probably beyond.

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I'm sure I've read recently that Chichester is an area with one of the highest disposable incomes per resident in the country - sorry I don't have the link - but this would suggest low or no mortgages for many residents. Maybe this is one of the factors causing price resilience in the area.

It also seems a nice place to live - large enough to have things going on but small enough to be manageable - so I suspect it'll weather the storm better than most areas.

My hunch would be that 2010 is going to be a very rocky year for property prices in general (and 2011) as well. The market will be greatly influenced by one single event: the general election. If Brown is re-elected I think the markets will react badly as his entire economic strategy is based on the getting him back into Number 10. So we could see Sterling coming under pressure and interest rates rising. Alternatively, if Cameron gets in (as seems likely) the UK better brace itself for an emergency budget in the weeks after the election and an austerity package based on a quick look at the real books and a "it's much worse than we thought" budget.

Either scenario suggests holding off on buying at least until the back-end of 2010 and probably beyond.

We had a credit/property/economy bubble, that started to burst, but the government, at great expense, is managing to delay - until the election. But no government can afford to buck the market for ever. We will land, back down to reality. The laws of Macro economics (national accounts) will force that, as much as the law of gravity does. We are not in a temporary "storm". We are landing from a credit/properties/economic bubble, back down to normal, permanently.

Chichester can take some more time to accept reality, and be pulled back down, but it will. Bad news for property owners, but good news for the younger generation.

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Marco economics are certainly going to play a big part in where property prices land but there are other factors at play as well. There can be no doubt there's underlying demand in the property market - with the growth in population people will still need somewhere to live - and house building isn't exactly meeting that demand. Despite being stung by the buy-to-let market I still suspect many would rather invest in property than sink their money into pension funds and stocks and shares. This is especially true in areas such as Chichester with good quality housing stock and other features making it an attractive area. I'm not saying Chichester is going to avoid a drop in house prices but for them to drop dramatically isn't likely to happen. The new "normal" is the younger generation not being able to afford to get on the property ladder in areas like Chichester.

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Anyone else out there care to comment on Chichester Prices.

Market seems staganant - despite an abundance of EA's there's a distinct lack of SOLD boards

I wish Chichester would wake up to reality.

This has been on for months and moths and price remains the same regadless

postage stamp font garden fronting onto a pedstrain crossing on busy main road and 3rd bedroom cosy to say the least http://www.rightmove...p;mam_disp=true

Or how about this gem of a bargain http://www.rightmove...p;mam_disp=true Wonder why it's been on the market so long ! lol

A quick check of rightmove shows some apprent better value homes but I know the locations of nearly all the Chichester Properties am therefore able to make a pretty good assement as to whats HOT and whats NOT. Lets just stay I'm in no rush to offer on anything today !

There are still loads for sale in Chichester that have completely failed to reduce on price and literally been been on for months. I can almost hear them " We're in Chichester Darling - We'll just sit back and see what happens"

We are renting having done the right thing and made a significant reduction on our home to sell, (not a milion miles away), ealier this year.

I can only assume the multitude of EA's, (I can real of a dozen or so), are comfortable with this and having made lots of money in the past when the sun was shining.

The market here seems relatively stagnant in terms of completions from what I can see.

Many vendors need to wake up or resign themselves to not selling

Chichester desirebale value or market in denial - YOU DECIDE

Contributions ,(to those lurking locally & maybe without accounts - register and post it doesnt take long)

Happy to rent until reality sets in for others.

Got some bad news for you. I know Chichester very well, and know that particular house you mentioned even better.

Its just sold for over 550k!!!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17546452.html

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In the meantime thought I would post up some Chichester hilarity

How about this 3 bed, (or 2.5 depending on your view of the size of smallest bedroom), yours for £399,950.

http://www.rightmove...D3%26index%3D10

The property has been on for ages and with various agents having been £425k until recently having been asking that money for ages over a year ago.ing Another typical example of an overpriced property and the lack of sale backs this up.

Purchased in 2001 for around 250k, and sold in November for over 550k.

Chichester is on the up

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We had a credit/property/economy bubble, that started to burst, but the government, at great expense, is managing to delay - until the election. But no government can afford to buck the market for ever. We will land, back down to reality. The laws of Macro economics (national accounts) will force that, as much as the law of gravity does. We are not in a temporary "storm". We are landing from a credit/properties/economic bubble, back down to normal, permanently.

Chichester can take some more time to accept reality, and be pulled back down, but it will. Bad news for property owners, but good news for the younger generation.

You appear to be convinced in your mind that property prices in the area are crashing, when in fact the converse is true. Property in Chichester is in short supply if you took the time to visit the agents. Chichester itself has very few high paid jobs, hence the reason its full of commuters who travel to London or Brighton, maybe you are not up early enough to see the crowds at the railway station.

Travel around the area, Bognor, Emsworth, etc you can see exactly why there is a premium price to be had in Chichester despite the fact that parking is pretty much a non starter.

In my view Chichester prices have yet to peak, and with many people sick and tired of living in London, having visited the Goodwood Festival of Speed in their millions, they fancy a move to Chichester financed by selling their 1 bed studio flat in Hackney to a cash buyer for 750k and buying a 6 bed city centre Georgian house for cash.

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Got some bad news for you. I know Chichester very well, and know that particular house you mentioned even better.

Its just sold for over 550k!!!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17546452.html

Are you really sure?

From Rightmove's direction was down:

23 May 2008: Initial entry found. Price '£429,950'

12 May 2009: Price changed: from '£429,950' to '£399,950'

26 July 2009: Price changed: from '£399,950' to '£375,000'

And it sold now for 550k? There may be some mistake there. Please, if possible, double check your info. Cheers.

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Marco economics are certainly going to play a big part in where property prices land but there are other factors at play as well. There can be no doubt there's underlying demand in the property market - with the growth in population people will still need somewhere to live - and house building isn't exactly meeting that demand.

In economics, effective demand requires two things: need, and buying power. Need alone, by people without money, is not demand.

Despite being stung by the buy-to-let market I still suspect many would rather invest in property than sink their money into pension funds and stocks and shares.

Inflation is already starting to appear in the system, and soon the BoE will be forced to start to increase interest rates. In the next few years interest rates will be back up to more normal levels. That will make mortgages more costly, pressing down on propeties prices, and at the same time it will make savings accounts more attractive.

In the next few months, 3 things will make all this very clear to the wider population:

1) In March: The budget.

2) In May: The general election.

3) Within 50 days, the Conservatives will publish an Emergency Budget.

The penny will (finally) drop then.

It will be clear then that properties will go down in the long term, and that simple, safe, traditional savings accounts will bring much better returns.

I'm not saying Chichester is going to avoid a drop in house prices but for them to drop dramatically isn't likely to happen. The new "normal" is the younger generation not being able to afford to get on the property ladder in areas like Chichester.

I'll risk a forecast here. I'll put it in writing, here and now, for future reference:

Real property prices in the Chichester area will fall 20 to30% within the next 2 to 3 years.

(And the younger generation will be able to afford to buy property in Chichester.)

(By the way, it is not a "ladder'! Snap out of it! ;) )

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You appear to be convinced in your mind that property prices in the area are crashing, when in fact the converse is true.

I've never said that prices are crashing. I said prices will fall in the next few years.

Travel around the area, Bognor, Emsworth, etc you can see exactly why there is a premium price to be had in Chichester despite the fact that parking is pretty much a non starter.

Yes, of course, Chichester will always have a premium in relation to surrounding areas. But premia are proportional, not absolute. When the whole national market goes up and down, Chichester will go up and down with it, proportionally.

What can change this proportional "rate" are local factors. Like a big employer closing down. Or the arrival of a big employer, etc.

I don't know if any of these will happen in Chichester. If it does, it will affect it, of course. Chichester has a lot of public sector jobs, with the St. Richards Hospital, County Council, and the District Council. This sector will shrink in the next few years.

Big private employers? The supermarkets should be safe. Rolls Royce? I don't know. Any others?

The city centre retail looks like shedding jobs. But i don't have the numbers. Probably with the national average, hence proportional.

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Are you really sure?

From Rightmove's direction was down:

23 May 2008: Initial entry found. Price '£429,950'

12 May 2009: Price changed: from '£429,950' to '£399,950'

26 July 2009: Price changed: from '£399,950' to '£375,000'

And it sold now for 550k? There may be some mistake there. Please, if possible, double check your info. Cheers.

227 Whyke Road I am sure you can check it out somewhere. I was back in the UK over Christmas and noticed it had sold, having seen it on the market for 550k. Cant remember the agent. If I am mistaken then its a bargain at 375k as it has a huge back garden with a new garage for three cars and storage, and additional parking for three cars off road at the rear. Not only that, the house can accomodate a huge wraparound extension as its built a fair distance from the boundary. I looked at the one next door for 250k in 2000 but the owner wanted offers well over the asking price, so a waste of time.

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I've never said that prices are crashing. I said prices will fall in the next few years.

Yes, of course, Chichester will always have a premium in relation to surrounding areas. But premia are proportional, not absolute. When the whole national market goes up and down, Chichester will go up and down with it, proportionally.

What can change this proportional "rate" are local factors. Like a big employer closing down. Or the arrival of a big employer, etc.

I don't know if any of these will happen in Chichester. If it does, it will affect it, of course. Chichester has a lot of public sector jobs, with the St. Richards Hospital, County Council, and the District Council. This sector will shrink in the next few years.

Big private employers? The supermarkets should be safe. Rolls Royce? I don't know. Any others?

The city centre retail looks like shedding jobs. But i don't have the numbers. Probably with the national average, hence proportional.

I doubt local jobs are supporting the market past or present. Chi Ob I doubt there is a job in there paying over 25k, have seen accountants jobs advertised at 18k!!!

Chichester is old money as you probably know. People move up to London from Chichester for work, then return later in life with a stash of cash, and the family money as well.

Zimmer Frames and pink rinses ensure Chichester prices are kept high. Not many young people could possibly live in Chichester with the parking situation, god knows how long to wait for a parking permit, and a bus service that would look third world...............in the third world

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I doubt local jobs are supporting the market past or present. Chi Ob I doubt there is a job in there paying over 25k, have seen accountants jobs advertised at 18k!!!

Chichester is old money as you probably know. People move up to London from Chichester for work, then return later in life with a stash of cash, and the family money as well.

Zimmer Frames and pink rinses ensure Chichester prices are kept high. Not many young people could possibly live in Chichester with the parking situation, god knows how long to wait for a parking permit, and a bus service that would look third world...............in the third world

Yes, agree. The average age of Chichester home owners looks higher, older, than the national average.

But in this case, then the traditional main cause of "forced sales", usually much bigger annual numbers than banks repossessions, should be higher here as well: deaths.

Oh well, only time will tell. this year will be decisive, with the March Budget, the May General Election, and the Conservatives' Emergency Budget. I think this "trio" will kill dead any popular expectation of house prices increase, and then market prices will fall, and unfreeze (transaction numbers coming up to normal levels).

But only time will tell for sure.

Edited by Tired of waiting
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I doubt local jobs are supporting the market past or present. Chi Ob I doubt there is a job in there paying over 25k, have seen accountants jobs advertised at 18k!!!

Chichester is old money as you probably know. People move up to London from Chichester for work, then return later in life with a stash of cash, and the family money as well.

Zimmer Frames and pink rinses ensure Chichester prices are kept high. Not many young people could possibly live in Chichester with the parking situation, god knows how long to wait for a parking permit, and a bus service that would look third world...............in the third world

I thought so too, and it is a little like that, but not as much as I thought.

See the chart below - though it is for West Sussex as a whole.

The age group 15-30 here in W. Sussex is below national average. And we have more 65+.

(At the UK census site)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/pop2001/west_sussex.asp

west_sussex.gif

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For those who say "but Chichester is different...".

"There are some very nice houses in very nice areas close to very nice schools in San Francisco for sale at 50% off peak already. Same in Los Angeles and San Diego. The average house price in the United States is now 2.5x earnings."

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=135770&view=findpost&p=2366970

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  • 1 month later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Well this just isn't funny anymore.

Came close to buying in Felpham in Jan 2009 but local school wouldn't give our child a secondary school place so we pulled out.

Been paying silly rent figures for 20 months & it's starting to get tighter each month !

Landlord making sounds of wanting to sell & nothing out there which represents rental or purchase value !

EA last week on Bognor outskirts said " We're almost right back to where we were at peak" (blamed lack of supply) !

I know for a fact I will now struggle to borrow anything like I could in 2008 !

Out teenage kids aren't getting any younger - eldest at univeristy in next 18 months !

Both of us sick of renting !

Would probably stuggle to buy the house we sold in 20089 ( we reduced significantly to get a sale when others were too greedy) !

Mortgage lenders increasingly tightening criterias & reducing max lending !

I feel whichever government gets elected a real budget will squeeze folk hard !

I read this site & moneyweek to tell myself rises are due to a blimp not a steady rise !

Prices silly high near Chichester !

Local repo 4 bed was recently priced at £340k to sell but due to interest shown was withdrawn & remarketed days later for £400k.

Trying to be strong but feel myself increasingly slipping towards THE BULL TRAP !

Sensible polite comments from others appreciated.

Edited by CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM
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Well this just isn't funny anymore.

Came close to buying in Felpham in Jan 2009 but local school wouldn't give our child a secondary school place so we pulled out.

Been paying silly rent figures for 20 months & it's starting to get tighter each month !

Landlord making sounds of wanting to sell & nothing out there which represents rental or purchase value !

EA last week on Bognor outskirts said " We're almost right back to where we were at peak" (blamed lack of supply) !

I know for a fact I will now struggle to borrow anything like I could in 2008 !

Out teenage kids aren't getting any younger - eldest at univeristy in next 18 months !

Both of us sick of renting !

it is darkest just before dawn. Don't give up now.

Would probably stuggle to buy the house we sold in 20089 ( we reduced significantly to get a sale when others were too greedy) !

Mortgage lenders increasingly tightening criterias & reducing max lending !

I feel whichever government gets elected a real budget will squeeze folk hard !

I read this site & moneyweek to tell myself rises are due to a blimp not a steady rise !

Prices silly high near Chichester !

Local repo 4 bed was recently priced at £340k to sell but due to interest shown was withdrawn & remarketed days later for £400k.

Trying to be strong but feel myself increasingly slipping towards THE BULL TRAP !

Sensible polite comments from others appreciated.

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Well this just isn't funny anymore.

Came close to buying in Felpham in Jan 2009 but local school wouldn't give our child a secondary school place so we pulled out.

Been paying silly rent figures for 20 months & it's starting to get tighter each month !

Landlord making sounds of wanting to sell & nothing out there which represents rental or purchase value !

EA last week on Bognor outskirts said " We're almost right back to where we were at peak" (blamed lack of supply) !

I know for a fact I will now struggle to borrow anything like I could in 2008 !

Out teenage kids aren't getting any younger - eldest at univeristy in next 18 months !

Both of us sick of renting !

Would probably stuggle to buy the house we sold in 20089 ( we reduced significantly to get a sale when others were too greedy) !

Mortgage lenders increasingly tightening criterias & reducing max lending !

I feel whichever government gets elected a real budget will squeeze folk hard !

I read this site & moneyweek to tell myself rises are due to a blimp not a steady rise !

Prices silly high near Chichester !

Local repo 4 bed was recently priced at £340k to sell but due to interest shown was withdrawn & remarketed days later for £400k.

Trying to be strong but feel myself increasingly slipping towards THE BULL TRAP !

Sensible polite comments from others appreciated.

All the barriers to buyers you have encountered are affecting other buyers too:

"struggle to borrow anything like I could in 2008 !

"Mortgage lenders increasingly tightening criterias & reducing max lending !

I feel whichever government gets elected a real budget will squeeze folk hard !

And the chart in y sig (below) shows that the real recession didn't even start yet, for 3 reasons:

1) We can't keep borrowing like that;

2) We are now paying some 40 billion a year in interest rates alone;

3) We will have to start paying the principal back

The next 10 years will be very, very hard.

The prices now are silly, and it is a bull trap.

If you borrow to buy you will be paying rent too, on the money you will borrow, called "interest".

You were very lucky that you had to pull out from the Felpham deal.

Hang on in there. Wait at least the general election, and the budget that will follow. The penny will drop for the country then. Wait just a few weeks more.

I know renting is annoying, but in our case we will wait more. We are looking for a bigger/better place (we are in a flat now), and will try to find a 2 or 3 years contract, anywhere between Chichester and Arundel, and watch the economy slows down, and real prices to fall, in my estimate, some 20-30%, in the next 2 to 3 years.

Edited by Tired of Waiting
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  • 1 month later...

Anyone else out there care to comment on Chichester Prices.

Capital Gains Tax is now 18%, but a couple of days ago news started to circulate that the new coalition government may increase it to 40%. We may see lots of reductions soon, like this one:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-25278070.html?utm_content=ealertspropertyimage&utm_medium=email&utm_source=emailupdates&utm_campaign=emailupdates_sep09&utm_term=buying&sc_id=4703325

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hmm - Time will tell no doubt.

Fwiw you havent been replying in vein. I had difficulty in logging in but all seem agian fine now, (on the this computer at least)

I replied to your West Sussex thread btw.

I agree we need to wait to see any changes in market on back of CGT & other budget announcements & in meantime I expect a slight increase in instructions to sell following recent CGT stories & suspension of HIPS perhaps meaning those who cant afford one might advertise & thus more instructions taken.

Oh & we've been served notice........Great !

Edited by CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM
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Hmm - Time will tell no doubt.

Fwiw you havent been replying in vein. I had difficulty in logging in but all seem agian fine now, (on the this computer at least)

I replied to your West Sussex thread btw.

I agree we need to wait to see any changes in market on back of CGT & other budget announcements & in meantime I expect a slight increase in instructions to sell following recent CGT stories & suspension of HIPS perhaps meaning those who cant afford one might advertise & thus more instructions taken.

Oh & we've been served notice........Great !

Good luck re. the notice. Are you looking for 3 bedroom house or bigger? If so, they are expensive. We are living in a 1.5 bedroom flat, for years, and we are tired of it. We considered renting a bigger house, for up to £800/mo, but in this price range we can't find anything too appealing. Lots of shops have closed down in Chi city centre, but somehow rentings are not falling. It may be due to Housing Benefits, putting a floor under rents?

Re. CGT, I hope they will only announce it in this Emergency Budget, but to be implemented in April 2011. That would give time for sellere to try to sell, pushing prices down.

After CGT is increased, instructions should fall.

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Good luck re. the notice. Are you looking for 3 bedroom house or bigger?

Cheers,

Currently renting ,( on notice), a band F council tax 4 bed detached in Chi @ 1250 pcm - in honesty I wasn't keen in spending over £1k pcm at the time we moved in (1/09)

Gas & electric £150 pcm as insulation poor & boiler is poor - not ideal as house sizeable but not huge & energy bills should be no more than £80 pcm IMO.

Looking at 3 beds min ideally, ( 2 teenagers plus wife & myself), with a garage or spare reception for some storage as dont want to unpack everything thats boxed.

New rentals seem to be typically up 20% on January last year.

Looking at something tomorrow that might be ok albeit not ideal as parking a bit of a compromise.

Edited by CHICHESTER WAITING ROOM
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(...)

New rentals seem to be typically up 20% on January last year.

(...)

Yes, we also think rents are higher than last year. I really can't understand how. According to some friends, the city centre retail is feeling the recession. The public sector (St. Richards, County Council, District Council) must be planning to shed jobs. So how come tennats are finding money to pay more rent?? I don't get it. Is it Housing Benefits that are putting a floor under rents??

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Housing Benefits, official numbers, from: http://www.voa.gov.uk/publications/localrefrents/index.htm

For the Chichester area, housing benefits are now, May 2010 :

Studio_____1 Bed_____2 Beds____3 Beds____4 Beds____5 Beds

£109.62___£132.70___£167.31___£199.04___£230.77___£282.69 <--- Weekly

£474.98___£574.99___£724.95___£862.44___£999.93___£1,224.90 <---- Monthly (weekly x 4.333)

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  • 2 months later...

(...) & in meantime I expect a slight increase in instructions to sell following recent CGT stories & suspension of HIPS perhaps meaning those who cant afford one might advertise & thus more instructions taken.

Oh & we've been served notice........Great !

Very good call on the instructions increase thing! Spot on. Well done.

And I think prices are FINALLY starting to fall around here. :)

I think some sellers are starting to realise that it was a bubble.

From now on it will be a race between sellers. Prices will keep falling for years, so, some sellers are getting it, and reducing their prices as much as necessary to sell it NOW. The rest of the sellers will get stuck with devaluing assets. :) The world is becoming fair again. :D

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