Hpc Bottoming Out Already?

[Guest theboltonfury]

Watch as they find a "magic" way again....... like their magic "cdo's" and "siv's"..........

Sorry -- I can't help being TOTALLY cynical -- I am CONVINCED that they would sooner eat their children than let "prices" sink right down.....

well if they do, I am going to buy 100 buy-to-lets.

[joey]

There seem to be signs that HPC may be losing momentum soon.

Get used to watching the news daily with job losses being announced on the hour. Last crash interest rates dropped from 15% to 6% it made not one little iota of difference in fact property fell for a further 3 years. Its all about job market confidence, with the possibility of loosing your job now in this Recession the last thing you want is a huge overpriced mortgage hanging over your head. The media will try and ramp up prices like last Crash but more info is now available online so you can see through the King's new tailor made coat.

[kingsgate]

Valid point. Hovewer

1) How long before Ponzi Brown & co introduce some form of incentive for FTBs? Wouldn't that be enough for a few undecided people to take the plunge?

2) A lot of FTB would content themselves with a 1 bed flat to start with - guaranteed.

When I first bought places back in 1992 - 1994 when prices were cheap, everyone I knew buying for the first time, skipped the studios and tiny 1 beds and went straight for 2 beds at least. That way they didn't need to move if they wanted a bit more space, and could also let the room to a lodger to help with the mortgage if necessary.....

[Icantbelieveitsnotbutter]

There seem to be signs that HPC may be losing momentum soon.

1) the sheeple are now convinced that interest rates will go down and stay low for a long while

2) governments will try to spend/inflate their way out of global recession while forcing nationalized banks to lend at will. Thanks to media coverage more and more people are waking up to this

3) incentives to FTBs now likely to be offered abroad (Australia started the trend)

4) "Houses as pensions" argument starting to resurface at a time when stocks are collapsing (admittedly this is just my own anedoctal experience, but scary all the same)

5) Banks not seen as a safe place to keep your money anyway

A few people on this forum are putting in offers, FFS! Surely that's not a good sign for HPC???

Please reassure me this is not the beginning of the end for HPC

Buying and selling carries on throughout a crash, there are always people thinking we are close to the bottom, or people who don't care or don't know. There are always legions of people with a massive vested interest to hold prices up (their debt depends on it, or their livelihood depends on it), or to talk people into buying the very assets they want to sell.

Price adjustment where you either own an asset or don't is much slower than you expect, it is a bit like a game of chicken.

The simple laws are the ones to follow. There are more sellers than buyers, there is a more restricted supply of money to buy the existing stock, there is less income amongst current owners to support their ownership, all of these are established negative trends. There is increasing trends against the net immigration that supported the rental market, and more controls coming. There is increasing political interference in banking that will inhibit not promote lending (the risks of lending grow as politicians indicate threats on pricing and ability to enforce payment of debts). There are such substantial falls in the value of other assets that the returns available on other investments are much higher propsectively. There is a dramatic mismatch between sale prices and replacement cost. The first tiem buyer market are increasingly encumbered with student debts that are only just starting to seriously impinge on buying power due to the time lag involved. The population is ageing and therefore there is a growing proportion of hte population looking to downsize and take money out of the asset class.

[sbn]

Yes, I see what you mean. I think we could have hit the bottom because we have SOUND FUNDAMENTALS. The economy is in a growth phase, unemployment is decreasing, mortgage lending is going through the roof ....but most importantly there is a "feelgood" factor in peoples wallets at the moment!

twit

OMG I cant believe I forgot - the stock market has never been so bullish - people have made millions in the last few months, and dont forget the exchange rates - now's the time to go on holiday to the USA. Oh and London is the financial capital of the world - High paying banking jobs are being created here on a daily basis because of our government's "Hands-off" approach to regulation that they will soon be adopting. - All that salary is going to filter down like a wall of money - to London service industries. Oh and then theres the stable finances of the country - less national debt than ever before - and thats all thanks to strong leadership. Low taxes and the lowest cost of living anywhere on the planet.

And thats not even looking at the long term view. probably the highest quality education system anywhere in the world - a constant production line of highly skilled workers ready to walk into our burgeoning scientific and technical manufacturing industries. A very low reliance on the state - hardly anybody is long term unemployed these days and because of our first class and highly efficient national health service - hardly anybody needs to claim incapacity benefit. Its a good job that the public sector pension funds were well controlled and invested - that would have been a bit of a nightmare if that had been allowed to get out of hand! Good sound policies on imigration and everybody here lives like one big British family! I think a lot of this nations success can be put down to the fact that we are totally self sufficient when it comes to both food and energy - net exporters in fact. Oh and how could I forget a transport and utilities infrastructure that is the envy of the world.

Speaking of the world I think its great that every other country is doing so well with no problems at all with the global economy, no problems with overpopulation and no problems with the environment.

And world peace - dont even get me started on world peace!

I mean if the sh1t ever really hit the fan we could sell some of the nations gold.

Yup theres only one way for house prices to go from this point, and thats up UP UP

Edited October 21, 2008 by sbn

[Leonard Hatred]

The first tiem buyer market are increasingly encumbered with student debts that are only just starting to seriously impinge on buying power due to the time lag involved.

Good point - thanks to my student loan, I have £70 a month not being available to pay a mortgage with.

[Flat Bear]

There seem to be signs that HPC may be losing momentum soon.

1) the sheeple are now convinced that interest rates will go down and stay low for a long while

2) governments will try to spend/inflate their way out of global recession while forcing nationalized banks to lend at will. Thanks to media coverage more and more people are waking up to this

3) incentives to FTBs now likely to be offered abroad (Australia started the trend)

4) "Houses as pensions" argument starting to resurface at a time when stocks are collapsing (admittedly this is just my own anedoctal experience, but scary all the same)

5) Banks not seen as a safe place to keep your money anyway

A few people on this forum are putting in offers, FFS! Surely that's not a good sign for HPC???

Please reassure me this is not the beginning of the end for HPC

I must admit I thought this would be one of those silly threads with some silly points but actually some of your points are quite valid especially the last one no. 6 ? A few people on this forum are putting in offers, FFS! Surely that's not a good sign for HPC???

I must admit at being a bit taken aback as some of these so called long standing bears have made the odd well reasoned post but you must remember things are never what they seem.

"Beware the Bull in Bears clothing". Although they still call themselves Bears they are in all intents and purposes Bulls. Some really silly ones think if they get an offer accepted at say 30% off the asking price then they somehow have bought at Below Market Value or BMV as many Bulls have called it. As you know there is no such thing as the price you pay is the market price every single time unless it was not freely marketed ie offer was limited to them and their older brother etc.

As another poster has said we are in a classic bull trap, the really really sad thing is that it is a poorly disguised one as it is happening as prices are still falling. Remember you always need the greater fool and as you can see by the very low recent sales figures there are very few around. I can quarantee 100% 99% that these bulls in bears clothing will not be even thinking of buying in 12 months time it is the nature of the beast.

YOU CAN NOT BUY AT 2010 PRICES IN 2008

I wonder if any of them have taken note.

[Deckard]

OMG I cant believe I forgot - the stock market has never been so bullish - people have made millions in the last few months, and dont forget the exchange rates - now's the time to go on holiday to the USA. Oh and London is the financial capital of the world - High paying banking jobs are being created here on a daily basis because of our government's "Hands-off" approach to regulation that they will soon be adopting. - All that salary is going to filter down like a wall of money - to London service industries. Oh and then theres the stable finances of the country - less national debt than ever before - and thats all thanks to strong leadership. Low taxes and the lowest cost of living anywhere on the planet.

And thats not even looking at the long term view. probably the highest quality education system anywhere in the world - a constant production line of highly skilled workers ready to walk into our burgeoning scientific and technical manufacturing industries. A very low reliance on the state - hardly anybody is long term unemployed these days and because of our first class and highly efficient national health service - hardly anybody needs to claim incapacity benefit. Its a good job that the public sector pension funds were well controlled and invested - that would have been a bit of a nightmare if that had been allowed to get out of hand! Good sound policies on imigration and everybody here lives like one big British family! I think a lot of this nations success can be put down to the fact that we are totally self sufficient when it comes to both food and energy - net exporters in fact. Oh and how could I forget a transport and utilities infrastructure that is the envy of the world.

Speaking of the world I think its great that every other country is doing so well with no problems at all with the global economy, no problems with overpopulation and no problems with the environment.

And world peace - dont even get me started on world peace!

I mean if the sh1t ever really hit the fan we could sell some of the nations gold.

Yup theres only one way for house prices to go from this point, and thats up UP UP

Dude, your frustration is coming through - and it's uglier than your avatar.

I don't suggest for a minute that house prices should LOGICALLY go up.

I am just saying: when governments get involved to the degree we are seeing, rulebooks go out of the window - and this worries me A LOT

[sbn]

Dude, your frustration is coming through - and it's uglier than your avatar.

I don't suggest for a minute that house prices should LOGICALLY go up.

I am just saying: when governments get involved to the degree we are seeing, rulebooks go out of the window - and this worries me A LOT

I'm sorry - just got carried away as I was typing!

Before I knew what was what, I had scared myself!

[DebitCrunch]

Patience. You can't expect a HPC to happen at internet speed.

The financial crash over the past months has been going at internet speeds and much faster then i would have belived so anyone that is so stupid as to not learnt the lesson from the near meltdown we had last week is better of buying now or better still jumping off a clif.

Tax payers are going to be left holding the baby for these mega bailouts so that leave little money to gamble on house prices just now and remember we are far from being out the woods just yet.

i've STR and it's the best move i could had made given how things are looking now and it's much, much too early to even consider prices have started to bottom and none of the previous crashed have hit the bottom this soon never mind if as it looks we are on for a full blow depression.

[tuggybear]

I must admit at being a bit taken aback as some of these so called long standing bears have made the odd well reasoned post but you must remember things are never what they seem.

I am currently in the process of purchasing, I sold 13 months ago, taken profits, rented. The perfect HPC textbook thing to do.

You see there are other factors which I have to consider other than price:-

I promised my misses we will buy again as soon affordable (she hate's renting).( 35% off peak, <X3 wages)

We have 3 children who can not really put down roots in this part of town, due to different schooling to local area, etc.

We just want to get on with our lives, with young children you have 16 years to build their memories of homelife, and I don't want their memories only being 'dragged from one rented to the next'.

Thats my personal reasons for buying now, not because im a BULL in Bears clothing.

I really fully expect to take a devaluation on my future property in 12-18 months, but I don't care because its going to be Our Home!

I really want a HPC @>50%, because one day I want my kids to bugger off and buy there own house and have their own independence!

Edited October 21, 2008 by tuggybear

[renterbob]

I am currently in the process of purchasing, I sold 13 months ago, taken profits, rented. The perfect HPC textbook thing to do.

You see there are other factors which I have to consider other than price:-

I promised my misses we will buy again as soon affordable (she hate's renting).( 35% off peak, <X3 wages)

We have 3 children who can not really put down roots in this part of town, due to different schooling to local area, etc.

We just want to get on with our lives, with young children you have 16 years to build their memories of homelife, and I don't want their memories only being 'dragged from one rented to the next'.

Thats my personal reasons for buying now, not because im a BULL in Bears clothing.

I really fully expect to take a devaluation on my future property in 12-18 months, but I don't care because its going to be Our Home!

I really want a HPC @>50%, because one day I want my kids to bugger off and buy there own house and have their own independence!

Please tell you gazundered?

If you have the cash to splash, go for it.

[tuggybear]

Please tell me you gazundered?

I may put in an even lower offer, when the timings right.

[Ungeared]

When I first bought places back in 1992 - 1994 when prices were cheap, everyone I knew buying for the first time, skipped the studios and tiny 1 beds and went straight for 2 beds at least. That way they didn't need to move if they wanted a bit more space, and could also let the room to a lodger to help with the mortgage if necessary.....

Likewise, I skipped the studios and one bed flats, I ended up with a 3 bed semi in a nice cul de sac in 1993, keep the faith, what have you to lose, this is so much bigger than last time.

[thedebtisreal]

Dude, your frustration is coming through - and it's uglier than your avatar.

I don't suggest for a minute that house prices should LOGICALLY go up.

I am just saying: when governments get involved to the degree we are seeing, rulebooks go out of the window - and this worries me A LOT

If thats what you feel, go out there and buy. You'll make a desperate seller somewhere really happy. Don't let us put you off.

I don't know why you are coming on here for validation, though. Surely you can make your own mind.

My advice would be wait to see if the mortgage approvals go back to the 70,000 levels. Then you'll know that the government schemes are working.

[Deckard]

If thats what you feel, go out there and buy. You'll make a desperate seller somewhere really happy. Don't let us put you off.

I don't know why you are coming on here for validation, though. Surely you can make your own mind.

My advice would be wait to see if the mortgage approvals go back to the 70,000 levels. Then you'll know that the government schemes are working.

Validation? I did not offer a theory to validate, I just expressed my concerns and asked people on this forum to express their opinion.

Isn't that what website like this are all about?

[sbn]

Validation? I did not offer a theory to validate, I just expressed my concerns and asked people on this forum to express their opinion.

Isn't that what website like this are all about?

I expressed my opinion - admittedly with a lot of sarcasm, and you said my ugly frustrations were showing!

I dont usually leave my flies undone!

AND you said I had an ugly avatar!

Lets see yours then - 54 posts is about enough to be deserving of some sort of identity!

Edited October 21, 2008 by sbn

[Johnny Cash]

There seem to be signs that HPC may be losing momentum soon.

1) the sheeple are now convinced that interest rates will go down and stay low for a long while

2) governments will try to spend/inflate their way out of global recession while forcing nationalized banks to lend at will. Thanks to media coverage more and more people are waking up to this

3) incentives to FTBs now likely to be offered abroad (Australia started the trend)

4) "Houses as pensions" argument starting to resurface at a time when stocks are collapsing (admittedly this is just my own anedoctal experience, but scary all the same)

5) Banks not seen as a safe place to keep your money anyway

A few people on this forum are putting in offers, FFS! Surely that's not a good sign for HPC???

Please reassure me this is not the beginning of the end for HPC

What you have to remember is that some people on here are sheeple too.

[Deckard]

I expressed my opinion - admittedly with a lot of sarcasm, and you said my ugly frustrations were showing!

I dont usually leave my flies undone!

AND you said I had an ugly avatar!

Lets see yours then - 54 posts is about enough to be deserving of some sort of identity!

I'd like to think my identity is more to do with my ideas than a Simpsons character, sir

[sbn]

I'd like to think my identity is more to do with my ideas than a Simpsons character, sir

Fair 'nuff - its just a bit of fun

Sorry I called you a twit earlier.

[Deckard]

Fair 'nuff - its just a bit of fun

Sorry I called you a twit earlier.

No worries, been called a lot worse

[geoffk]

BELOW is what some one wrote on here a few weeks ago.....whats changed? its got worse....all the new bears are baby bears ..stop flapping..

The last 12 months has seen the biggest falls ever from the Halifax. The previous biggest 12 month fall was in October 1992 of -8.5%

House prices have fallen 13.8% from the peak in August 2007 13 months ago. It took from May 1989 to July 1995 for house price to fall 13.21% that is 74 months and the bottom of the last housing slump.

This housing crash is now worse than the 89-95 housing crash and we have only just got going.

The last time house prices were at this level was February 2006 at £173,095.

Crown prediction is still house prices to continue falling with the Halifax index bottoming at £140,000 in Q4 2009. A fall of 30% or £59,600 from the peak in August 2007. That would be house prices returning to levels last seen in Q4 2003.

[steve99]

Ive also noticed that there are a lot more recently converted trolls who are looking to profit somehow on the down side, now that they've cashed out at the peak, check out the 'Anecdotals' forum, its full of em. Its like a column from the the Singing piggie.

[eric pebble]

Ive also noticed that there are a lot more recently converted trolls who are looking to profit somehow on the down side, now that they've cashed out at the peak, check out the 'Anecdotals' forum, its full of em. Its like a column from the the Singing piggie.

[doctorbone]

Dude, your frustration is coming through - and it's uglier than your avatar.

I don't suggest for a minute that house prices should LOGICALLY go up.

I am just saying: when governments get involved to the degree we are seeing, rulebooks go out of the window - and this worries me A LOT

I believe his post was tinged with irony.