Predictions

[Guest Steve Cook]

Western World mired in unservicable debts

Debt is beginning to be defaulted on

A towering house of leveraged financial instruments on top of this debts is collapsing

Assuming credit is money, at least in the sense that it can be used to exchange for goods and services, the above means the world is experiencing massive deflation

CB's are replenishing the bank's broken balance sheets with new money.

This new money is coming from the future. In an "ideal" world, from future tax reciepts. However, if the world economy is unable to grow significantly over the coming years, such new money will have to come from future debasement of the world's money supply through inflation of that money supply. The above could, concevably, be avoided by taking more of the exisiting tax reciepts as payments of the bailouts. However, if that happens, expect savage cuts in services. In any event, such cuts might not be enough anyway.

My guess is that the governments will allow a steady debasement of the currency. Not so fast as to cause unrest, but fast enough as to significantly dilute the losses over time. Plus, a bigger tax take to pay for the bailouts, thus deflating the money supply in oder to offset the inflationary effects of the bailouts. Ideally this new tax take will come from new growth. However, expect some to come from reduced services. A mixture of both. How long will all of this last? I have no idea, but I can't see, in an ideal scenareo, the world coming out of it for a decade.

But......

What if the world economy does not grow? Futher, what if it contracts? And I am not just reffering to the current deflationary shock. I am talking about a deep structural contraction that has no end to it.....

The world is running short on resources, most notably energy, which allows us to access, process and distribute all of the other resouces in the first place. The current major econoimic downturn will mask this to some extent. However, those contraints are still there and will grow. Eventually, we are going to reach a point where either we attempt to grow again, in which case we hit the buffers of resource contraints again and then face yet another economic shock. Or, we stay in the economic doldrums until eventiually such contraints start knocking on the door in a recesionary environment.

Either way, we will have the above to face at some point.

The world's money supply is already far in exess of the world economy's need for it. In a sense, the currency deflation due to debt default is a kind of self regulatory mechanism, thus bringing the money supppy back into balance. By performing these bailouts, our leaders are engaging in an insane strategy that will cause an inflationary nightmare further down the line. This alone, will take commodity prices to unimaginable levels. I don't know enough to be able to say when this inflationaruy pressure will start to show itself.

However, prices will be further pushed skywards by resource constraints as soon as we try to grow again

Thta's as far as I wish to take this for the moment

Edited October 19, 2008 by Steve Cook

[Guest mattsta1964]

Western World mired in unservicable debts

Debt is beginning to be defaulted on

A towering house of leveraged financial instruments on top of this debts is collapsing

Assuming credit is money, at least in the sense that it can be used to exchange for goods and services, the above means the world is experiencing massive deflation

CB's are replenishing the bank's broken balance sheets with new money.

This new money is coming from the future. In an "ideal" world, from future tax reciepts. However, if the world economy is unable to grow significantly over the coming years, such new money will have to come from future debasement of the world's money supply through inflation of that money supply. The above could, concevably, be avoided by taking more of the exisiting tax reciepts as payments of the bailouts. However, if that happens, expect savage cuts in services. In any event, such cuts might not be enough anyway.

My guess is that the governments will allow a steady debasement of the currency. Not so fast as to cause unrest, but fast enough as to significantly dilute the losses over time. Plus, a bigger tax take to pay for the bailouts, thus deflating the money supply in oder to offset the inflationary effects of the bailouts. Ideally this new tax take will come from new growth. However, expect some to come from reduced services. A mixture of both. How long will all of this last? I have no idea, but I can't see, in an ideal scenareo, the world coming out of it for a decade.

But......

What if the world economy does not grow? Futher, what if it contracts? And I am not just reffering to the current deflationary shock. I am talking about a deep structural contraction that has no end to it.....

The world is running short on resources, most notably energy, which allows us to access, process and distribute all of the other resouces in the first place. The current major econoimic downturn will mask this to some extent. However, those contraints are still there and will grow. Eventually, we are going to reach a point where either we attempt to grow again, in which case we hit the buffers of resource contraints again and then face yet another economic shock. Or, we stay in the economic doldrums until eventiually such contraints start knocking on the door in a recesionary environment.

Either way, we will have the above to face at some point.

The world's money supply is already far in exess of the world economy's need for it. In a sense, the currency deflation due to debt default is a kind of self regulatory mechanism, thus bringing the money supppy back into balance. By performing these bailouts, our leaders are engaging in an insane strategy that will cause an inflationary nightmare further down the line. This alone, will take commodity prices to unimaginable levels. I don't know enough to be able to say when this inflationaruy pressure will start to show itself.

However, prices will be further pushed skywards by resource constraints as soon as we try to grow again

Thta's as far as I wish to take this for the moment

Interesting post.

All developed economies operate under bankruptcy. The debts created in this sytem are unrepayable.

See my post on the Antiterrorist which has been moved to the off-topic section by the mods this morning.

We are living under Admiralty jurisdiction. Everything that is going on from the economic collapse to our legal system is tied up with our insolvency. Our relationship as individuals with the state is PURELY contractual. This is a very important concept to understand.

The current economic crisis is really about asset stripping. It is a vehicle for the state to seize private property, starting with the banking system, shortly to result in forclosure and bankruptcy on a pretty horrendous scale. The recession is going to be very severe. A lot of people will lose their homes and businesses.

We are in a very DANGEROUS predicament.

As the mafia often point out 'It's only business'

Government is no different. Our relationship with the state is purely commercial and contractual. Words like empathy, love, respect, notions of liberty and freedom do not exist under Admiralty Jurisdiction.

Humanity has effectively ceased to be profitable in the corporate sense. There's too many people, not enough resources. The population has become parasitic.

An analogy is a farm where the stock has become unproductive. The landowner sends the sick stock to the abbatoir to remain profitable. The loss is written off.

Humanity is facing exactly the same situation.

I can see only terrible things in the future for humanity as the unproductive stock is written off.

I'm talking mass starvation, war and utter chaos.

[Guest Steve Cook]

Interesting post.

All developed economies operate under bankruptcy. The debts created in this sytem are unrepayable.

See my post on the Antiterrorist which has been moved to the off-topic section by the mods this morning.

We are living under Admiralty jurisdiction. Everything that is going on from the economic collapse to our legal system is tied up with our insolvency. Our relationship as individuals with the state is PURELY contractual. This is a very important concept to understand.

The current economic crisis is really about asset stripping. It is a vehicle for the state to seize private property, starting with the banking system, shortly to result in forclosure and bankruptcy on a pretty horrendous scale. The recession is going to be very severe. A lot of people will lose their homes and businesses.

We are in a very DANGEROUS predicament.

As the mafia often point out 'It's only business'

Government is no different. Our relationship with the state is purely commercial and contractual. Words like empathy, love, respect, notions of liberty and freedom do not exist under Admiralty Jurisdiction.

Humanity has effectively ceased to be profitable in the corporate sense. There's too many people, not enough resources. The population has become parasitic.

An analogy is a farm where the stock has become unproductive. The landowner sends the sick stock to the abbatoir to remain profitable. The loss is written off.

Humanity is facing exactly the same situation.

I can see only terrible things in the future for humanity as the unproductive stock is written off.

I'm talking mass starvation, war and utter chaos.

Although I wouldn't formalise the reasons in quite such explicity conspiratorial terms as you Mattsta, I am nevertheless forced to agree with your predicted outcomes. Though, as you can read from my post, I have avoided discussing this inevitable end-place of what is coming our way.

Edited October 19, 2008 by Steve Cook

[winkie]

I predict that the children being born in todays world may not have a great deal to look forward to.

[StainlessSteelCat]

I predict this won't be the last prediction thread.

100%. Guaranteed.

[Methinkshe]

My prediction: individual carbon credits will become the new asset bubble.

[t350t]

the next "World Reserve Currency" will be Cocaine

[Guest mattsta1964]

Although I wouldn't formalise the reasons in quite such explicity conspiratorial terms as you Mattsta, I am nevertheless forced to agree with your predicted outcomes. Though, as you can read from my post, I have avoided discussing this inevitable end-place of what is coming our way.

Sorry to be such a misery guts!

You have to admit that our situation has a logical conclusion.

There are too many people consuming too much to finance a debt that doesn't really exist in any real sense.

Our entire economic system is based on fraud. We are sleeping partners in the crime because we have submited to this control without understanding how our contractual obligations to the state, a corporate identity, came about.

It sure is a mad, bad world.

Better that it self destructs and hopefully there'll be some of us left to pick up the pieces, live in peace and tranquility under Common Law, not Admiralty law.

Incidently, you can revoke your citizenship, release yourself from bonded slavery and become a Freeman-on-the-Land.

This is the avenue I'm exploring, more as an intellectual challange rather than a means to escape the apocalypse.

[Bardon]

not my words but I can relate to them

"In Genesis 47, Joseph, second in command to Egypt's Pharaoh, warned of a coming famine, and prepared stock-piles of grain to aid the people through the crisis. When the famine hit the land, the people came to Joseph to buy food stock. A simple transaction was made; the citizens used the national currency to purchase grain.

"In verses 14 and 15 we find an unusual development. After the grain was purchased, Joseph intentionally holds the money back, keeping it from being re-circulated into the local economy. The result is predictably catastrophic for the people: Economic crisis.

"According to the King James Version, "the money failed" (vs.15), and in the New International Version it says that the "money is used up." Egypt experienced intentional, government-sponsored deflation in the midst of a natural calamity. The money collapsed.

"Needing to eat, what did the citizens do? They brought Joseph their livestock in exchange for grain (vs.16-17). As an agrarian society, livestock represented the industrial basis of the people. Hence, placing this power in the hands of the government, the people's commercial activity was effectively abolished.

"In relating this series of events to others, some have asked me; "Why didn't the people just eat the animals instead of trading them for grain?"

"Refrigeration didn't exist. And while the people could have dried some of the meat for long-term use, grain would have been the most valuable and stable food source during a drought. Now the people had neither money nor livestock; and a year later they were out of food.

"Returning to Joseph, who obviously was in charge of the storehouses, the people begged their leader to take their land and themselves in trade for food (vs.18-19). Property was therefore consolidated under the state, and the citizens literally became slaves in their own country (vs.20-21). In the King James Version the language goes even further: Joseph depopulates the rural areas and moves the people into the cities.

"This is a masterful population control strategy. Once the wealth of the nation had been consolidated under the Pharaoh's banner via Joseph's actions - monetary wealth, the industrial base, land and productivity, and the people as economic assets - then Joseph instituted a new farming and taxation system (vs.20-24). How did the people respond? They gladly relinquished control of their wealth, property, and themselves (gave up their freedom) for the promise of state-dictated security.

"Keep in mind; all of this started through a debasing of the currency system. The manipulation of money is, arguably, the most potent method - outside of war - used to rearrange the fabric of society.

"Am I suggesting that our current crisis will be used as leverage to re-structure our Western world? The odds are in favor of it. Consider what the father of modern economics, John Maynard Keynes, had to say in 1919.

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency." - John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, (1919), p.236.

"Keynes economic model is what we have been using since the end of World War II. Roughly speaking, it's the idea that governments can stimulate the economy through interest rate management - the heart of credit and debt - taxation programs, and other state-instituted incentive programs. Although the above quote was aimed primarily at inflationary actions, the same conclusion could be made regarding deflationary leveraging."

[pessimistic]

Loft insulation to offer better returns than gold.

I will be one day older tomorrow.

[Guest mattsta1964]

not my words but I can relate to them

"In Genesis 47, Joseph, second in command to Egypt's Pharaoh, warned of a coming famine, and prepared stock-piles of grain to aid the people through the crisis. When the famine hit the land, the people came to Joseph to buy food stock. A simple transaction was made; the citizens used the national currency to purchase grain.

"In verses 14 and 15 we find an unusual development. After the grain was purchased, Joseph intentionally holds the money back, keeping it from being re-circulated into the local economy. The result is predictably catastrophic for the people: Economic crisis.

"According to the King James Version, "the money failed" (vs.15), and in the New International Version it says that the "money is used up." Egypt experienced intentional, government-sponsored deflation in the midst of a natural calamity. The money collapsed.

"Needing to eat, what did the citizens do? They brought Joseph their livestock in exchange for grain (vs.16-17). As an agrarian society, livestock represented the industrial basis of the people. Hence, placing this power in the hands of the government, the people's commercial activity was effectively abolished.

"In relating this series of events to others, some have asked me; "Why didn't the people just eat the animals instead of trading them for grain?"

"Refrigeration didn't exist. And while the people could have dried some of the meat for long-term use, grain would have been the most valuable and stable food source during a drought. Now the people had neither money nor livestock; and a year later they were out of food.

"Returning to Joseph, who obviously was in charge of the storehouses, the people begged their leader to take their land and themselves in trade for food (vs.18-19). Property was therefore consolidated under the state, and the citizens literally became slaves in their own country (vs.20-21). In the King James Version the language goes even further: Joseph depopulates the rural areas and moves the people into the cities.

"This is a masterful population control strategy. Once the wealth of the nation had been consolidated under the Pharaoh's banner via Joseph's actions - monetary wealth, the industrial base, land and productivity, and the people as economic assets - then Joseph instituted a new farming and taxation system (vs.20-24). How did the people respond? They gladly relinquished control of their wealth, property, and themselves (gave up their freedom) for the promise of state-dictated security.

"Keep in mind; all of this started through a debasing of the currency system. The manipulation of money is, arguably, the most potent method - outside of war - used to rearrange the fabric of society.

"Am I suggesting that our current crisis will be used as leverage to re-structure our Western world? The odds are in favor of it. Consider what the father of modern economics, John Maynard Keynes, had to say in 1919.

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency." - John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, (1919), p.236.

"Keynes economic model is what we have been using since the end of World War II. Roughly speaking, it's the idea that governments can stimulate the economy through interest rate management - the heart of credit and debt - taxation programs, and other state-instituted incentive programs. Although the above quote was aimed primarily at inflationary actions, the same conclusion could be made regarding deflationary leveraging."

Great post, and it just confirms much of what I have already posted in the thread.

[gravity always wins]

Although I wouldn't formalise the reasons in quite such explicity conspiratorial terms as you Mattsta, I am nevertheless forced to agree with your predicted outcomes. Though, as you can read from my post, I have avoided discussing this inevitable end-place of what is coming our way.

ok. what do we think the population of the world will be in:

2008 6.7Billion

2015

2020

2030

Might give an indication of how bearish posters see the future. Maybe we need a poll.

[Sinking Feeling]

It's becoming increasingly obvious with each day that a world central bank will be established.

The Rothschilds have their puppets in place, Sarkozy in France and Mandelson suddenly given a peerage and drafted into our cabinet. All that they have to do now is let them fight it out amongst themselves to see which of them is going to lay claim to coming up with the scheme which gives the international bankers even more power, including taking tax revenues from places which have hitherto been outside of their direct control.

[Guest Steve Cook]

ok. what do we think the population of the world will be in:

2008 6.7Billion

2015

2020

2030

Might give an indication of how bearish posters see the future. Maybe we need a poll.

2008 6.7Billion

2015 ?

2020 ?

2030 less than 3.5 billion?

.

.

.

.

2100 Somewhere between 0.5 and 1 billion

Edited October 19, 2008 by Steve Cook

[Guest mattsta1964]

2008 6.7Billion

2015 ?

2020 ?

2030 1 billion

The NWO wants a 80% reduction in global population....allegedly

[t350t]

i'm a bit more optimistic, i thought we had enough farmland for 2 billion, so only roughly 2 out of 3 will starve

[Guest Steve Cook]

The NWO wants a 80% reduction in global population....allegedly

It doen't matter what anyone wants. We will get a reduction.

All that the various policy implementations will do, is ensure who are the one's who get to stay. That is all.

Edited October 19, 2008 by Steve Cook

[Guest Steve Cook]

i'm a bit more optimistic, i thought we had enough farmland for 2 billion, so only roughly 2 out of 3 will starve

Is that 2 billion using modern petrochemically intensive farming, processing and distribution methods?

[Guest Steve Cook]

Anyway, to come back a little closer to home. What are anyone's thoughts on the more immediate predictions outlined by me in the OP?

Edited October 19, 2008 by Steve Cook

[gravity always wins]

2008 6.7Billion

2015 ?

2020 ?

2030 less than 3.5 billion?

.

.

.

.

2100 Somewhere between 0.5 and 1 billion

Ouch chilling. The skills needed in this scenario are so different to the skills most have now.

I think the UK population has to be the least equiped on the planet

Edited October 19, 2008 by gravity always wins

[Bardon]

Great post, and it just confirms much of what I have already posted in the thread.

Did you know that Dick Cheney resides in the Naval Observatory in DC?

[t350t]

Is that 2 billion using modern petrochemically intensive farming, processing and distribution methods?

I thought it was 2 billion if we go back to pre-petrochemical farming... the current population being supported by the current methods (obviously )

I have no backing for this number, i just beleive it "intuitively" - the qualitative argument i read made sense.

I base most of my "world-view" on this, so i'm very curious to see peoples' reasoning for their estimates.

Fusion is the only "way out" but it would take a stable world to acheive, plus people investing in fusion research instead of bidding up houses

i gather experts consider it 50years away?

Edited October 19, 2008 by t350t

[t350t]

Ouch chilling. The skills needed in this scenario are so different to the skills most have now.

I think the UK population has to be the least equiped on the planet

the kids with knives & guns are the ones who will fare best - they will be the new "Masters Of The Universe"

Edited October 19, 2008 by t350t

[geezer466]

Did you know that Dick Cheney resides in the Naval Observatory in DC?

And this is significant how exactly?

[Sinking Feeling]

Did you know that Dick Cheney resides in the Naval Observatory in DC?

A post that's almost on topic. How much is it worth now compared to last year?