Reading

[17clarence]

29 minutes ago, spyguy said:

 

Imagine when benefits change and a lot of migrants go home.....

There's av ery high risk, as benefits changes....

 

What benefit changes are these?

I'm absorbing as much Brexit as I can, but cannot remember a single mention of benefits in relation to EU migrants.

My 'understanding' is we treat anyone legally resident in the UK as an equal to a UK citizen when it comes to benefits. It's not policy to  have a two tier system.

[spyguy]

5 minutes ago, 17clarence said:

What benefit changes are these?

I'm absorbing as much Brexit as I can, but cannot remember a single mention of benefits in relation to EU migrants.

My 'understanding' is we treat anyone legally resident in the UK as an equal to a UK citizen when it comes to benefits. It's not policy to  have a two tier system.

There's two ones in formation.

One, setting the bar on earnings for non EU at 30k. That can be firthere tweaked by by charging for healthcare and kids schooling.

This ia a *reasonable* change. Whichever ever moron (Brown) who thought allowing ~8M low paid EUers  to arrive at the UK and claim tax credits and free schooling is an idiot.

The other change is no deal Brexit.

EUers will be allowed to stay but I doubt theyll be allowed to claim any benefit other than JSA.

One trap that is actually in the EU laws of FOM are 'no burden to host country' (or words to thateffect) and provision of healthcare insurance. The last one is a killer. Ive only met one EUer who read the rules and took out a private health policy.

And EUer asking to remain could be legally (as the EU sees it) be asked to demonstrate theyve bought health insurance and kicked out if they have not.

 

 

 

[spyguy]

We dont treat people legally resident in the uK equla.

No other country does.

Non citizens are allowed to legally remain provid9ing hey can support themselves.

Its only the lunacy and slackness of UKGOV and the councils that have allowed non nationals to claim various benefits.

Any other country - and I mean this - no job? out.

Seriously.

 

 

[simvastatin]

5 hours ago, spyguy said:

We dont treat people legally resident in the uK equla.

No other country does.

Non citizens are allowed to legally remain provid9ing hey can support themselves.

Its only the lunacy and slackness of UKGOV and the councils that have allowed non nationals to claim various benefits.

Any other country - and I mean this - no job? out.

Seriously.

 

 

None of the three political parties are going to do this, i have not heard of a single minister agreeing to this, none on the far right or on the left or even the fringe parties have this in there manifesto.

lets be honest we care about human beings, even if they take the piss.

[spyguy]

2 minutes ago, prozac said:

None of the three political parties are going to do this, i have not heard of a single minister agreeing to this, none on the far right or on the left or even the fringe parties have this in there manifesto.

lets be honest we care about human beings, even if they take the piss.

Nope.

Have you, as a bit i assume tried getting housed or benefits?

Its really hard work.

None of the parties have said anythings they dont have to, the EU rules are clear on this.

[simvastatin]

3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Nope.

Have you, as a bit i assume tried getting housed or benefits?

Its really hard work.

None of the parties have said anythings they dont have to, the EU rules are clear on this.

Has that become more difficult for EE

[spyguy]

10 minutes ago, prozac said:

Has that become more difficult for EE

Not yet.

[simvastatin]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

Not yet.

You think that is on the cards

[spyguy]

9 minutes ago, prozac said:

You think that is on the cards

Yes.

[simvastatin]

12 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Yes.

You think from a hard brexit or something else 

i have started to notice a lot of poverty on the streets even in london 

Edited November 18, 2018 by prozac

[spyguy]

55 minutes ago, prozac said:

You think from a hard brexit or something else 

i have started to notice a lot of poverty on the streets even in london 

You cant import 12m people and expect the economy to expand.

Just more people chasing the same resources.

That 12m needs to go back home.

[17clarence]

I stand corrected.

I looked at the CAB website, and indeed the EU migrants are not treated equally.

That said they can claim (limited) benefits after only 3 months employment. But only for 3 months. Would be better only after 2 years employment.

Certainly not easy and no access to unlimited/neverending claims.

As for the minimum income of 30k, I think that's still too low.

Better would be an Oz system where if UK needs haidressers or brain surgeons, in you come, and the UK accepts the consequences one way or another.

What we don't need is chefs in ethnic restaraunts and taxi drivers.

Anyway, we digress from Reading.

I'm from Reading, born and bred, and on the rare occasions I visit, (been abroad in EEA for 12+ years), I despair over the ridic house prices and the fact Reading is now a mirror image of Slough, but with worse traffic issues.

It's not a bad place to live though, and you are almost gauranteed to have some form of employment.

[simvastatin]

1 hour ago, spyguy said:

You cant import 12m people and expect the economy to expand.

Just more people chasing the same resources.

That 12m needs to go back home.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/immigration-worries-drove-the-brexit-vote-then-attitudes-changed/2018/11/16/c216b6a2-bcdb-11e8-8243-f3ae9c99658a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.801ad1af3723

 

LONDON — When the British voted to break away from the European Union — the historically gutsy or spectacularly reckless decision, take your pick — they said they wanted to “take back control” of their money and laws and they expressed a deep anxiety over immigration.

But in the two years since the referendum, something remarkable happened: The British stopped worrying so much about foreigners.

Pollsters have uncovered a mellowing of attitudes about immigration, expressed by both those who voted to leave the European bloc and those who voted to remain.

“I have been studying this for years, and there’s never been a move this big in such a short period of time,” said Rob Ford, a politics professor at the University of Manchester.

[spyguy]

17 minutes ago, prozac said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/immigration-worries-drove-the-brexit-vote-then-attitudes-changed/2018/11/16/c216b6a2-bcdb-11e8-8243-f3ae9c99658a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.801ad1af3723

 

LONDON — When the British voted to break away from the European Union — the historically gutsy or spectacularly reckless decision, take your pick — they said they wanted to “take back control” of their money and laws and they expressed a deep anxiety over immigration.

But in the two years since the referendum, something remarkable happened: The British stopped worrying so much about foreigners.

Pollsters have uncovered a mellowing of attitudes about immigration, expressed by both those who voted to leave the European bloc and those who voted to remain.

“I have been studying this for years, and there’s never been a move this big in such a short period of time,” said Rob Ford, a politics professor at the University of Manchester.

Theres no mellowing.

Mrs,spys italian. Even shes sick of wave after wave of non brits turning up with no job and dependent on benefit.

[fandanman]

19 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Therefore, average Reading house is dropping in price by ~£500 per month. Add to that (even historically very low) mortgage interest, and renting looks much better value than buying at the moment.

£500 a month drop..........Woooooohooooooo, if things carry on this way this property will be back to 2014 levels by 2058, excellent.

 

 

[fandanman]

10 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Theres no mellowing.

Mrs,spys italian. Even shes sick of wave after wave of non brits turning up with no job and dependent on benefit.

WTF is this sh%t doing on this thread, you don't even live here.

[simvastatin]

9 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Theres no mellowing.

Mrs,spys italian. Even shes sick of wave after wave of non brits turning up with no job and dependent on benefit.

Mrs,Spy is not happy paying taxes when she sees people on benefit

That does nor mean that this problem is going to be addressed, how many times have we been here before.

[Bear Hug]

On 18/11/2018 at 18:12, fandanman said:

£500 a month drop..........Woooooohooooooo, if things carry on this way this property will be back to 2014 levels by 2058, excellent.

 

 

I am not sure whether you are just trolling but I'll humour you either way.  The quote I referred to had a 2% drop in a year.  A drop of £236k from the current price would correspond to ~17 years (compounded), not 40 that you have estimated. 

That's not all.  The house prices don't need to drop in nominal value to actually drop (i.e. in inflation-adjusted value).  Current annual RPI increase is running at about 3%.  Therefore, the rough inflation-adjusted change is more like a drop of 5% (=2%+3%). 

At a 5% drop per year, it will take only 7 years to get back to the price from 5 years ago,   And that's if inflation doesn't go above current levels.

 I know that average RPI over last 5 years was more like 2.5% pa rather than 3 but either way, we are talking here of the period of less than 10y, compared to your wildly inaccurate estimate of 40. 

Edited November 19, 2018 by Bear Hug

[fandanman]

Yessssssss, thanks for clarifying its only 7 years instead of 40 to get back to 2014/15 prices , yippeee.

So in your inflation adjusted real world scenario where everything you have stated will probably happen does that mean that if this £837000 house drops by  compounded 2% a year over 7 years to  £726000 my theoretical £100000 salary needs to compoundly rise by 3% year on year to £123000 to make your theory come true?

If that is true and my superb wage growth (and presumely everyone else's) happens over the next 7-10 years, won't I and everyone else be competing for those houses before they get that low thus pushing up prices?

[Bear Hug]

8 hours ago, fandanman said:

Yessssssss, thanks for clarifying its only 7 years instead of 40 to get back to 2014/15 prices , yippeee.

So in your inflation adjusted real world scenario where everything you have stated will probably happen does that mean that if this £837000 house drops by  compounded 2% a year over 7 years to  £726000 my theoretical £100000 salary needs to compoundly rise by 3% year on year to £123000 to make your theory come true?

If that is true and my superb wage growth (and presumely everyone else's) happens over the next 7-10 years, won't I and everyone else be competing for those houses before they get that low thus pushing up prices?

I was mainly talking about RPI rather than salary inflation but yes, real price falls are higher than nominal.

I think Reading is so over-priced that the competition is not going to materialise.  

First-time buyers - appear to be buying like lemmings independent of what is happening to prices, but places they can afford are becoming smaller and smaller

Landlords/speculators - hugely important in Reading with entire streets for rent, that's where I expect majority of buyers staying out of the market: latest tax measures makes it less profitable and it's not much of investment when the prices are falling

Overall, I expect falls but the government have already thrown everything and the kitchen sink to prop up the house prices, who knows what else they will come up with

[fandanman]

You need to explain yourself a little better, that's twice in a row you said one thing but meant another. Of course you were talking about RPI but that's no good without the equivalent wage rise year on year otherwise your real world scenario of 7-10 years is just hot air and wishful thinking, isn't it.

"hugely important in Reading with entire streets for rent " which streets are these? I can think of a few streets that have a lot of rented properties but I can't think of any that are entirely for rent, are you Spyguy in disguise?

 

[spyguy]

11 hours ago, fandanman said:

You need to explain yourself a little better, that's twice in a row you said one thing but meant another. Of course you were talking about RPI but that's no good without the equivalent wage rise year on year otherwise your real world scenario of 7-10 years is just hot air and wishful thinking, isn't it.

"hugely important in Reading with entire streets for rent " which streets are these? I can think of a few streets that have a lot of rented properties but I can't think of any that are entirely for rent, are you Spyguy in disguise?

 

No, hes not.

https://www.home.co.uk/for_rent/results.htm?long=0.971775&lat=51.452&location=reading&TOWN_SEARCH=1&MAP_SEARCH=&high=&low=&pcmpw=m&minbeds=&maxbeds=&house=true&flat=true&room=true&radius=1&sort=PRICE_DESC&found_since=&loose=1&showmap=0

'Search results for all properties for rent within 1 mile of Reading (all possible matches) sorted by highest rent first

Your search found 741 properties for rent in the Home.co.uk Rental Search'

I dont think bearhug is exaggerating much.

I would guess the area bound by London, Wokingham Rd and the Uni is pretty much all rentals.

I guess the town side of London Rd is pretty much there too.

Then theres Oxford Rd.

 

 

 

 

[fandanman]

"No he's not", thats what I dont understand Spyguy, obviously he wants to live here cant afford it, and then theres you who once lived here but couldnt afford it but continue to slate it.

 I know this area very very well, very well and I can safely say that yet again you (and Bear boy) are spouting bullsh$t. Sure there are lots of rentals,  but when you are saying entire streets are rented you have to backup your bullsh$t, and there are NO STREETS IN READINg ENTIRELY RENTED. You've got to stop this one man band against Reading Spyguy, everything you put down about Reading is easily disproved, I know you couldnt afford to live here and cannot understand why people would rather live here rather than upt North but you need to get over this obsession with Reading, its unhealthy.

So you have posted a link showing 741 properties for rent which I think is less than 1% of the properties in Reading, Whats your point? Of course there's Oxford road, who the f$ck would want to live there, but then again I wouldnt want to live in Peckham or Reddish or Sparkbrook or any other city sh$thole, who would.

In fact 1 mile of Reading includes Shinfield, Sonning, Caversham, Tilehurst, Whistley Green, Binfirld Heath,  Arborfield  ... I think you've just proved theres not enough houses to go around ?

[spyguy]

Isnt it 2 or 3 band now?

'In fact 1 mile of Reading includes Shinfield, Sonning, Caversham, Tilehurst, Whistley Green, Binfirld Heath,  Arborfield  ... I think you've just proved theres not enough houses to go around'

Shinfield - 3 miles out (near Three Mile Cross, clue there)

Sonning - 3 or 4 miles out.

Tilehurst, - 3 or 4 miles out.

Whistley Green - ~5 miles out.

etc etc etc

These places are not in Reading.

There are some quite short streets off some of main drags. I would be open to to the suggestion that some of these streets are 100% rentals now.

I still stand by my claim:

- A lot of residents of Reading have left (The census confirms this - 30% down on white brits in 10 years).

- Reading is IO BTL hot spot.

- A lot of the new residents are dependent on benefits/taxcredits.

- The jobs that the M4 corridor was know for 20/25 years ago have gone to London. leaving just some back office functions.

- The congestion is dire, offputtingly dire.

As time goes by, IRs are raised, S24 kicks, EUers kciked off tax credits etc etc, we'll have a chance to see who's right.

 

 

 

 

[spyguy]

On 18/11/2018 at 18:14, prozac said:

Mrs,Spy is not happy paying taxes when she sees people on benefit

That does nor mean that this problem is going to be addressed, how many times have we been here before.

Mrs spy, in her younger years, voted for a fascist party. Not a right wing or extreme right wing as the medua mislabels ukip.

Dont tell you fellow teachers i told her....