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Nickolarge

To Those Who Say We Are Enjoying The Crisis

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A couple of weeks ago I met up with an ex-girlfriend to celebrate my birthday. A few days later she told me I'd been noticeably miserable, so I confided in her that the current economic crises had shaken me quite badly and that I was worried about my savings, my work, my old age, the possible breakdown of society etc. Right barrel of laughs, I was. She listened patiently but probably thought I was being alarmist. Her advice was: stop worrying, there's nothing you can do to stop what's happening and if it does turn out that badly, at least you were prepared.

I suppose it depends on how severe the meltdown is. A deep recession I could probably handle, as I've the skills, versatility and freedom to go and work in Asia or something. I might have competition from people in my profession who've been laid off, but I'm confident I'd be OK.

The armageddon scenario is something else entirely, and that's what's really scaring me.

Typical chick thing to say, what does she know about the crisis? is her job safe? is she going to enjoy dodging the roaming anarchist mobs? silly cow.

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Many people who sleep in cardbord boxes (although I know of exceptions) have never envisioned in their minds eye ever possesing the princley sum of eight thousand pounds, that is, for the main part IMO, why they sleep in cardboard boxes. Again your logic goes off in two directions, houses are getting very cheap - fact, people who envision (becuse of abuse/addiction/lack of imagination) life in a carboard box exist, and I think have always existed - fact. What is the connection, and what is your point?

My point is that you seem to think that, on average, people will be better off because house prices fall.

I am saying that people will be worse off and that is why house prices will fall.

You said yourself that people on the dole will be able to buy a house. Well that is not the way I remember it in the 1970s and 1990s recessions. I remember less people able to afford houses even though they were cheaper.

Anyway I am off to bed now so I won't be carrying on this discussion.

Night all. See what tomorrow holds in store.

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Typical chick thing to say, what does she know about the crisis? is her job safe? is she going to enjoy dodging the roaming anarchist mobs? silly cow.

I think she has a point. There is a 99% chance* that life goes on, but we have to get used to a greatly reduced standard of living aka North Korea. There's a 0.9% chance of complete anarchy, and 0.1% chance of nuclear war. Whichever way you look at it, not being affected is completely impossible unless your own your own private self sustaining island. So why stay up at night worrying if your fortune is safe so you can buy a pile of bricks when this is all over? If western society collapses, the prudent will be almost as ******ed as the feckless. In fact the feckless will probably be better off, as they can die knowing they've enjoyed the high life for a short time - saw the world, drove the cars, ate in the restaurants etc.

*figure plucked out of my ass i know

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My point is that you seem to think that, on average, people will be better off because house prices fall.

I am saying that people will be worse off and that is why house prices will fall.

You said yourself that people on the dole will be able to buy a house. Well that is not the way I remember it in the 1970s and 1990s recessions. I remember less people able to afford houses even though they were cheaper.

Anyway I am off to bed now so I won't be carrying on this discussion.

Night all. See what tomorrow holds in store.

there is no more cheap credit, that is why house prices will fall. I remember buying a two bedroom house in the mid 90`s for 11k..whats not to like?

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there is no more cheap credit, that is why house prices will fall. I remember buying a two bedroom house in the mid 90`s for 11k..whats not to like?

Thing is thats peanuts. I've paid more than that for cars in cash. Houses will never be that cheap again, else anyone with a job that doesn't have 'customer' at the beginning could have three. Agree todays prices are totally unsustainable now, but £11k? Come on - thats just wishful thinking.

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A couple of weeks ago I met up with an ex-girlfriend to celebrate my birthday. A few days later she told me I'd been noticeably miserable, so I confided in her that the current economic crises had shaken me quite badly and that I was worried about my savings, my work, my old age, the possible breakdown of society etc. Right barrel of laughs, I was. She listened patiently but probably thought I was being alarmist. Her advice was: stop worrying, there's nothing you can do to stop what's happening and if it does turn out that badly, at least you were prepared.

I suppose it depends on how severe the meltdown is. A deep recession I could probably handle, as I've the skills, versatility and freedom to go and work in Asia or something. I might have competition from people in my profession who've been laid off, but I'm confident I'd be OK.

The armageddon scenario is something else entirely, and that's what's really scaring me.

Personally I think it's important to remember that this is a minority forum and that, whilst you'll find some interesting stuff here, there's some pretty extreme views being taken as normal and it's likely that much of what is assumed on here will never actually happen. Too much time here, IMHO at least, will probably do you more harm than good. There's plenty more to life than money and life will go on with or without financial institutions in their current form. We are all much more adaptable than we give ourselves credit for, and society is much less fragile than many on here think. In reality what we're seeing is a paradigm shift (possibly even an exciting one) but probably not armageddon.

Have some beer. Or a sunset or some woods. They'll still be there whatever.

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The fact that my property went up in value is of no relevance to me because I am not going to sell it, I have no mortgage and I haven't borrowed against it. If property comes down some more I might buy a house for each of my children and a second home by the sea so long as I don't need to borrow to do it.

Its only people who treat their homes as an investment who get upset when property prices fall.

True, however other people ARE relying on their homes and share prices for their pensions as you pointed out previously. The fact is that after the bubble has popped they will not be worth any less than if we had never had the bubble in the first place so they are not really any worse off (although admittedly it looks like the stock market is going to tank for a bit while everybody panics).

It is really just a return to normality after the credit binge. It is not painless.. but it is necessary :)

Sleep well ;)

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I think she has a point. There is a 99% chance* that life goes on, but we have to get used to a greatly reduced standard of living aka North Korea. There's a 0.9% chance of complete anarchy, and 0.1% chance of nuclear war. Whichever way you look at it, not being affected is completely impossible unless your own your own private self sustaining island. So why stay up at night worrying if your fortune is safe so you can buy a pile of bricks when this is all over? If western society collapses, the prudent will be almost as ******ed as the feckless. In fact the feckless will probably be better off, as they can die knowing they've enjoyed the high life for a short time - saw the world, drove the cars, ate in the restaurants etc.

*figure plucked out of my ass i know

You plucked all the figures out your ass I think? She would be right in general most of the time, worry is for wussies, and women don`t like wussies, but of all the times to switch off her womans insight, now is the time. Any thinking human not worried now is either a foetus or about to go back up to the Big Man in the sky.

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I live in my house and I own all (8 bed, 4 reception Grade 2 listed and 3.5 acre garden) of it so I don't need to sell it. Even if I did want to sell it I doubt you will ever afford it because as houses get cheaper fewer people will have jobs or availablity of credit to benefit.

it is easy to forget that a listed house is an expensive house to maintain. My house has 1 acre of garden and that required ,ntil I was made redundent,a gardener two days a week in summer and a day a week in autumn and sping. Now I have time on my hands I find it very pleasant.

The true costs of owning a home are not cheap whe you factor in repairs and renewals of bathroom kithchen etc. This is why B2L is not worthwhile other that in a rising market with gearing. It is a very high risk game but those with some savy can make money

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Thing is thats peanuts. I've paid more than that for cars in cash. Houses will never be that cheap again, else anyone with a job that doesn't have 'customer' at the beginning could have three. Agree todays prices are totally unsustainable now, but £11k? Come on - thats just wishful thinking.

Wasn`t there a story on here earlier today about a house bought for a dollar fifty in Detroit ( I know, it must be a legal clause thing about transfer of names or something) that just could not be sold at any price? You have to account for certain areas and certain types of housing becoming completely unsellable after a big bust. This is the biggest bust any of us will ever see (yeah yeah etc)

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Personally I think it's important to remember that this is a minority forum and that, whilst you'll find some interesting stuff here, there's some pretty extreme views being taken as normal and it's likely that much of what is assumed on here will never actually happen. Too much time here, IMHO at least, will probably do you more harm than good. There's plenty more to life than money and life will go on with or without financial institutions in their current form. We are all much more adaptable than we give ourselves credit for, and society is much less fragile than many on here think. In reality what we're seeing is a paradigm shift (possibly even an exciting one) but probably not armageddon.

Have some beer. Or a sunset or some woods. They'll still be there whatever.

...NOT IF THEY DROP THE BIG BOMB THEY WONT....AAARGHHHHAAAAA...... eh what kind of beer have you got?

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Personally I think it's important to remember that this is a minority forum and that, whilst you'll find some interesting stuff here, there's some pretty extreme views being taken as normal and it's likely that much of what is assumed on here will never actually happen.

A little background for you: About 15 years ago, when I was feeling quite low for a time, I briefly had some counselling with a psychologist. He told me I was a catastrophist. Because of bad things in my childhood (like my dad dying), my brain had got into the habit of always assuming the worst was going to happen. Armed with this knowledge, whenever I started feeling morose I could say to myself: "Stop being a catastrophist and think positively, you miserable git." This was helpful, but not half as helpful as the housefire I survived a couple of months later, which made me realise how glad I was to be alive.

Fast-forward to 2006 and my discovery of this site. At last, people who think like I do about the crazy credit bubble. But crikey, some of these views seem a bit extreme. Maybe these people are catastrophists. Maybe I'm being drawn to this site by my latent catastrophist tendencies. Cheaper houses I can believe, but banks collapsing en masse? The rantings of internet nutters if you ask me.

They don't seem quite so nutty any more, and that's what's spooking me.

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V.good advice for anyone. has just allowed me to feel intolerably smug (which maybe as bad :P ) as had only been cacking pants for 2 little children (6 & 9). Just said to Mr Sticky - if it wasn't for kids would be interested rather than worried. Think we forget how often this stuff comes around. My elderly Mums first memory is of bailiffs coming into her v. middle class home in 1930 - her Dads 3 businesses had failed because people hadn't paid their bills. She still grumbles about him being a miserable git (stuck behind newspaper smoking) - other peoples' Dads had survived the trenches with their sense of fun intact. During WWII he used to take a route home from war work that avoided the canal because he felt such a failure he wanted to chuck himself in - only found this out a couple of years ago - asked her whether my middle-class educated Granny had ever grumbled about him. No - v. loyal despite fact she had considered chucking him when engaged due to her concerns about his business arrangements. The ups and downs of life are what makes us who we are - our reactions whether practical or emotional can ripple far further than we think. (e.g. I have never liked debt). We have got very used to being rather comfortable but I don't think that anyone is going to feel great about it crashing down around our ears even if we may be better prepared than some.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
A little background for you: About 15 years ago, when I was feeling quite low for a time, I briefly had some counselling with a psychologist. He told me I was a catastrophist. Because of bad things in my childhood (like my dad dying), my brain had got into the habit of always assuming the worst was going to happen. Armed with this knowledge, whenever I started feeling morose I could say to myself: "Stop being a catastrophist and think positively, you miserable git." This was helpful, but not half as helpful as the housefire I survived a couple of months later, which made me realise how glad I was to be alive.

Fast-forward to 2006 and my discovery of this site. At last, people who think like I do about the crazy credit bubble. But crikey, some of these views seem a bit extreme. Maybe these people are catastrophists. Maybe I'm being drawn to this site by my latent catastrophist tendencies. Cheaper houses I can believe, but banks collapsing en masse? The rantings of internet nutters if you ask me.

They don't seem quite so nutty any more, and that's what's spooking me.

Optimists underestimate risk.

I'm trying to find the study.

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A little background for you: About 15 years ago, when I was feeling quite low for a time, I briefly had some counselling with a psychologist. He told me I was a catastrophist. Because of bad things in my childhood (like my dad dying), my brain had got into the habit of always assuming the worst was going to happen.

fwiw

As I understand it, 'catastrophising' is one of the 'thinking errors' that cognitive behaviourists associate with depression. All very scientific and mechanical. I prefer to believe that we all have the dark powers within us and they come and go like the weather, and there's little point worrying about them or trying to stop them. Plus it's October.

I do think Stephen Fry was right there though.

Good you have a g/f who actually gives an Aylesbury about your welfare :)

Edited by bimyo

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Good you have a g/f who actually gives an Aylesbury about your welfare :)

Ex-girlfriend.

She's now met a bloke who's 20 years older than her and has tons of money, which probably didn't help my mood, though I didn't tell her that. :angry:

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That`s the "houses only ever go up" mantra in reverse, waken up, get a big spoon and eat the coffee, as houses get cheaper they just get cheaper, some houses will be so cheap you will be able to buy one if you are drawing the dole, availability of credit will affect the price of your house so just pray that someone can get credit for 20% of what you think it is worth now if you ever want to sell.

He's probably wrong about DYIV, but right in general: ability to secure credit determines, by and large, who can buy property. If people on the dole haven't loaded up with debt already, I reckon they've missed their chance ;)

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Ex-girlfriend.

She's now met a bloke who's 20 years older than her and has tons of money, which probably didn't help my mood, though I didn't tell her that. :angry:

Beg pardon.

More careful reading required. Apologies.

20-years-younger birds it is then.

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You plucked all the figures out your ass I think? She would be right in general most of the time, worry is for wussies, and women don`t like wussies, but of all the times to switch off her womans insight, now is the time. Any thinking human not worried now is either a foetus or about to go back up to the Big Man in the sky.

If things go that way, then I'll gladly take the option in bold - what will there be to live for afterwards? As I'm sure I've said in a previous post, it will be back to subsistence living waiting (and wishing for) the next global extinction event to come and end it all. Call me an optimist, but I don't think we're looking at complete Armageddon quite yet.

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Personally I think it's important to remember that this is a minority forum and that, whilst you'll find some interesting stuff here, there's some pretty extreme views being taken as normal and it's likely that much of what is assumed on here will never actually happen. Too much time here, IMHO at least, will probably do you more harm than good. There's plenty more to life than money and life will go on with or without financial institutions in their current form. We are all much more adaptable than we give ourselves credit for, and society is much less fragile than many on here think. In reality what we're seeing is a paradigm shift (possibly even an exciting one) but probably not armageddon.

Have some beer. Or a sunset or some woods. They'll still be there whatever.

Well said, this forum is best kept to small doses. Personally I think these are exciting times as soon as the crash started I felt a weight being lifted off my shoulders, as a young first time buyer I had been calculating how I could afford to buy a home, my conclusion was I couldn't, not even a 1 bed flat as a grad mech engineer :( . I think we'll see a new wave of younger leaders breaking through inspired by the recent events, fed up with the government and ready to make a difference.

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Sorry you lost me. Perhaps I really am out of touch. As far as I am aware people can only control their destiny when they have assets and wealth. A slave has neither and has no control over his destiny.

What is happening now is destroying ordinary people's assets and wealth so is reducing their ability to contol their destiny. Do you think the destruction of wealth in Zimbabwe or prewar Germany gave ordinary people more power or less?

[/qu Power is forty 15 yr old youths with guns. Thats power ! Comin to your area soon.

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There are certainly too many paranoid maniacs and silly people on these forums, but it's always worth considering Taleb's Black Swan..

things always tend to go further than people expect, and the tails are fat.

I cite one example, Germany - 1900 - 2000. What do we have? WWI pseudo-aristocracy, an utter depression, the rise of reactionary fascism, for the West, the rise of the European miracle, for the East, we have the Stasi and suffocating totalitarianism - move forward to the current days.

The cycle is so vicious, from pillar to post.

Look at Britain's 20th century history.

Why should anyone on this forum be complacent - when the wheels of history turn, the world we know gyrates and shifts to a new regime faster than we can consider.

The only thing is to be aware, and never expect continuity. Everything marches on, for better or for worse. The world is barely more stable than it was in the time of Queen Elizabeth.

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Reminds me of storm chasers, they don't have any joy in the destruction the storms cause, but they do try to predict and follow them.

Sometimes as with the financial storm , it is exciting to watch $1.2 trillion dollars wiped of american equities (even more in total today) or (£94 Billion I think) off the FTSE .

Big events are exciting and don't preclude sympathy, but people have been shouting loudly about the coming storm and the numbers ignoring that have increased the damage it's causing, they should look to themselves for making it worse.

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  • 224 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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