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Soul Reaver
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no - he worries nearly enough

why so miserable? - house prices have actually only returned to end of 06 levels - people are still buying and although there will obviosly be further falls during the next year to 18 months it will turn - always has - i will always make a living - chill out - get out there and buy!

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no idea.

sell all software stocks -Open Source creates a viable form of 'idealistic communism' for all creatives in this field.

beyond that ...er... well..

Russians have OIL and AK74's.

Chinese have bullpup 6.8mm rifles ( a classic case of a British idea capitalized on abroad)

who is investing in Fusion ?

Erm Bullpup rifles were invented by the French, the FAMAS prototype was developed in 1971. the SA80 prototype came about in 1976, and didn't work until 2006 , and still doesn't work...

Its a pointless exercise anyway except for paratroops in that sure you can shorten the weapon and thus have a longer barrel which goes into the stock, thus increasing accuracy... but this puts the firing bolt closer to the ears of soldiers meaning they go deaf of have to wear hearing protection.

6.8mm is similar to .3 calibre machine guns we had in WWII, probably a balance ie the stopping power of the shortened rifle bullet of the Ak47, but with the velocity of the M4.

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why so miserable? - house prices have actually only returned to end of 06 levels - people are still buying and although there will obviosly be further falls during the next year to 18 months it will turn - always has - i will always make a living - chill out - get out there and buy!

Are you seriously telling me houses rose in value 42% between '06 and '07? It's either that or the house three doors down from me here in south Surrey isn't a house.

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I don't think it will unravel as quickly as many seem to think.

But I think things may continue to de-leverage beyond 2012.

I think regulation may insist on it.

I can certainly see a future where financial institutions are not allowed to get anywhere near as big of the likes of todays players. There is far too much systemic risk, too much money in like for like portfolio's, too many identical strategies being followed.

Firstly welcome back: see from another thread that you've been busy - congrats on the new job although please don't get too busy to not pop over here every once in a while - your insight is much appreciated and valued!

Anyway, I agree that having big institutions poses a huge systemic risk, as we're seeing now, however the current 'solutions' seem to be effectively nationalising the big monsters or merging them to make bigger ones e.g. Merrill+BoA, HBOS/LTSB.

In the HBOS/LTSB case the regulators are going to be overruled to force it through. Do you reckon that in 5 years time we're going to see the rule book torn up (again, as is currently the case with the MMC - and FSA to a degree - over HBOS/LTSB) and them being forced to split into smaller entities?

I started a 'black' thread on Sunday as I had a hunch it was going to get bad but I didn't foresee this amount of carnage and meddling. Where will it end? And when? And more to the point - what/who's going to be left?

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Guest pioneer31
We get lots of snippets of information spread across various posts on where we are at now. But where do you think we will be by 2012 when we are supposed to be hosting said Olympics?

I myself think the following

1. Houses will have fallen by at least 50% from peak of 07 (All of them)

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money Unless you are

A. Sqeaky clean

B. Have at least 10% up front of your own cash (if not more)

C. And you will only be allowed 3.5x your annual salary that will need to be proved and verified

3. BTL will be dead and buried and the only landlords left will be the shrewd ones who are not over leveraged

4. CDO's SPIVS and all such financial instruments will be slated, hated and possibly never allowed again

5. Gold will be $1500 an ounce if not more

6. Oil will be $200 a barrel or more

7. Inflation will be 10%

8. Jobless (in the UK) will be 3.5 million

9. Labour will have returned only 2 seats in the general election and be blamed (rightly so) for everything (God I hope so)

10. Did I miss anything?

11. Oh yes. Investment banking will be hated by the masses

12. Blanchflower will still be voting for rate cuts

13. Gordon Brown will be in Broadmoor

14. There will be a new super bank NationalLloydsNorthernMinsterRockBarclayBOSTrusteeSavings

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Guest Mr Parry
why so miserable? - house prices have actually only returned to end of 06 levels - people are still buying and although there will obviosly be further falls during the next year to 18 months it will turn - always has - i will always make a living - chill out - get out there and buy!

. . . . touch of gel, sir?

No thanks.

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why so miserable? - house prices have actually only returned to end of 06 levels - people are still buying and although there will obviosly be further falls during the next year to 18 months it will turn - always has - i will always make a living - chill out - get out there and buy!

Bless.

Does the warden know you're playing with his computer? More to the point, did he forget to give you your medication this evening?

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http://www.globalfirepower.com/

The UK is behind Indian and Brazil ....

1United States

2 Russia

3China

4India

5Germany

6France

7Japan

8Turkey

9 Brazil

10Great Britain

Their are a large number of subject about which I know little.

This is one of the ones about which I am slightly better informed.

Their are a very few nation states with any real power projection capabiliies, the US stands alone. Behind the US comes, in my order, the UK/Japan and France. South Korea and Australia get honourable mentions. Israel for real defense.

Russia, China? Both recently struggled to put a few thousand men in, or on their own borders in Georgia or Tibet with plenty of forrwarning.

The rest aren't even in the game.

It's not about tactics, or strategy, or sexy tanks.... it's about logistics. How many explosions can Brazil lift to the Falklands given a few months notice? How many did the UK 25 years ago?

In the final analysis only three countries have the ability to turn any city in the world into a puddle of radioactive glass and two of those both use Tridant. The other is Russia. The rest don't have the range, the Chinese are only now, 50 years later putting men in space with their rockets.

I also feel the need to point out that I would very much not rather see any of the above tested in reality, but do see it as becoming increasingly likely.

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Guest barebear

All these predictions are all very plausible and could well happen but I'm going for a war to be started next year or certainly before the general election.This time it will be a real oil war with Iran, things will get really messy with china backing Iran by proxy and USA backing us in the same way.

A coalition government will be formed and a long expensive war will ensue.

As for house prices ,they will drop to silly prices but the rub will be you have to buy outright or you have a serious deposit and have a paye government job and also be squeaky clean.

No one will win the war outright but it will cost us trillions and the decade will turn into something similar to the 30's with widespread poverty.The overal winners will be China who will become the worlds super power and will be seen by the middle east as their protector against America.

Alternatively we could just have a 50% house price fall and a tory government, then it will all start over.

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My amendments

We get lots of snippets of information spread across various posts on where we are at now. But where do you think we will be by 2012 when we are supposed to be hosting said Olympics?

I myself think the following

1. Houses will have fallen by at least 70% from peak of 07 (All of them)

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money Unless you are

A. Sqeaky clean

B. Have at least 50% up front of your own cash (if not more)

C. And you will only be allowed 2.5x your annual salary that will need to be proved and verified

3. BTL will be dead and buried and the only landlords left will be the shrewd ones who are not over leveraged

4. CDO's SPIVS and all such financial instruments will be slated, hated and possibly never allowed again

5. Gold will be $3000 an ounce if not more

6. Oil will be $200 a barrel or more

7. Inflation will be 1000%

8. Jobless (in the UK) will be 39 million

9. Labour will have returned with 150 (total)due to client state they have built ie dependents on tax credits and dole voters

10. Did I miss anything?

11. Oh yes. Investment banking will be hated by the masses,

In a few weeks time i predict.

At the local forecourt?

BUY 5 GALLONS OF UNLEADED FUEL and buy a house for £2.5 :lol:

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