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Prediction Time


Soul Reaver
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We get lots of snippets of information spread across various posts on where we are at now. But where do you think we will be by 2012 when we are supposed to be hosting said Olympics?

I myself think the following

1. Houses will have fallen by at least 50% from peak of 07 (All of them)

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money Unless you are

A. Sqeaky clean

B. Have at least 10% up front of your own cash (if not more)

C. And you will only be allowed 3.5x your annual salary that will need to be proved and verified

3. BTL will be dead and buried and the only landlords left will be the shrewd ones who are not over leveraged

4. CDO's SPIVS and all such financial instruments will be slated, hated and possibly never allowed again

5. Gold will be $1500 an ounce if not more

6. Oil will be $200 a barrel or more

7. Inflation will be 10%

8. Jobless (in the UK) will be 3.5 million

9. Labour will have returned only 2 seats in the general election and be blamed (rightly so) for everything (God I hope so)

10. Did I miss anything?

11. Oh yes. Investment banking will be hated by the masses

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My amendments

We get lots of snippets of information spread across various posts on where we are at now. But where do you think we will be by 2012 when we are supposed to be hosting said Olympics?

I myself think the following

1. Houses will have fallen by at least 70% from peak of 07 (All of them)

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money Unless you are

A. Sqeaky clean

B. Have at least 50% up front of your own cash (if not more)

C. And you will only be allowed 2.5x your annual salary that will need to be proved and verified

3. BTL will be dead and buried and the only landlords left will be the shrewd ones who are not over leveraged

4. CDO's SPIVS and all such financial instruments will be slated, hated and possibly never allowed again

5. Gold will be $3000 an ounce if not more

6. Oil will be $200 a barrel or more

7. Inflation will be 1000%

8. Jobless (in the UK) will be 39 million

9. Labour will have returned with 150 (total)due to client state they have built ie dependents on tax credits and dole voters

10. Did I miss anything?

11. Oh yes. Investment banking will be hated by the masses,

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I myself think the following

1. Houses will have fallen by at least 50% from peak of 07 (All of them)

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money Unless you are

A. Sqeaky clean

B. Have at least 10% up front of your own cash (if not more)

C. And you will only be allowed 3.5x your annual salary that will need to be proved and verified

3. BTL will be dead and buried and the only landlords left will be the shrewd ones who are not over leveraged

4. CDO's SPIVS and all such financial instruments will be slated, hated and possibly never allowed again

5. Gold will be $1500 an ounce if not more

6. Oil will be $200 a barrel or more

7. Inflation will be 10%

8. Jobless (in the UK) will be 3.5 million

9. Labour will have returned only 2 seats in the general election and be blamed (rightly so) for everything (God I hope so)

10. Did I miss anything?

11. Oh yes. Investment banking will be hated by the masses

SIVs (Structured Investment Vehicles, SIV Wiki )

SPIVS on the other hand are already hated and, thanks to the amount of estate agents going out of business, becoming rarer by the day :lol:

EDIT: to add SPIV Wiki

Edited by Bubble&Squeak
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Energy efficiency will be a crucial factor in determining house price by 2012. Inefficient properties will fall the hardest. Sellers will start adding solar panels and wind turbines where possible, rather than new kitchens and bathrooms, as a means of attracting buyers. Personally I believe that the energy assessment aspect of HIPs is an excellent idea.

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My punts, will be...

1. Houses will have fallen by at least 50% from peak of 07 (All of them) (no change from yours...)

1.5. We will be "in the trough", with the Worst Over, and everyone on Green Shoot Watch.

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money Unless you are

A. Sqeaky clean

B. Have at least 10% up front of your own cash (if not more)

C. And you will only be allowed 3.5x your annual salary that will need to be proved and verified

(No change there)

3. BTL will be dead and buried and the only landlords left will be the shrewd ones who are not over leveraged

4. CDO's SPIVS and all such financial instruments will be slated, hated and possibly never allowed again

(Still no changes...)

Then...

5. The whole commodities thing will be totally dead and buried.

6. Inflation (a CPIesque calculation) will be a genuine 3-4%.

7. Interest rates will be 4-5%, and will not have fallen below 4% at any point.

8. China will be looking very sick indeed, as the Global Tat Requirement will have plummetted.

9. The Tory government will be despised by half the nation because that's what their parents brought them up to do.

10. Most of the demutualised BSs will now be, at best, little more than letters in someone bigger's acronym, and at worst, non-existant.

11. The tech \ mobile comms world will have lost a major name or two (no, not that one), as demand for overpriced devices to increase the size of your e-schlong goes south very rapidly. Substance will still sell, style will die on it's **** (yes, that one).

12. Non-hydrocarbon energy will be seriously starting to look like The Next Big Thing (okay, to me it does now, but it's hardly mainstream), rather than The Next Nice Idea That Won't Actually Happen.

13. Many will have been left almost totally unaffected by the whole thing.

14. Unemployment will be in the "a hell of a lot" region, but as with all recessions, if it doesn't hit you you'll be wondering what all the fuss is about.

15. The Olympics will actually be pretty good (not brilliant, but pretty good), and the usual suspects will either blow sunshine up its ****, or slag it to death, depending on previous bias.

Sorry it wasn't all that dramatic. Suffice to say, I don't go for the whole mega-inflation thing. If I did, I'd have bought a house by now...

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We get lots of snippets of information spread across various posts on where we are at now. But where do you think we will be by 2012 when we are supposed to be hosting said Olympics?

Not sure myself. But what I do note is just in the same way people couldtn see an end to the good times it is becoming apparent that people now cant see an end to the bad times!

It's all cyclical remember so cheer up :)!

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9. The Tory government will be despised by half the nation because that's what their parents brought them up to do.

Bang on the money there, my dad still swears at the TV whenever thatcher appears on it. :lol:

Expect a much more fractured landscape, with the BNP making huge gains... you just have to look at the local elections of suburban slums to see how the masses vote when things start getting ugly. That party preys on and exploits people's fears in an incredibly effective fashion. With no other party having anything remotely different to add to the political sytem, people will flock to the extremists.

Worst case scenario is that we end up voting in a new hitler. We already have the socialism, and the huge military resources, and the brainwashed population, just needs the right bunch of nutters to be given the keys to the nukes.

Edited by DementedTuna
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Worst case scenario is that we end up voting in a new hitler

American Christian Fundamentalism is the new Hitler. Bush + co have already started making landgrabs in violation of international law. If we had marshall law in the USA under a rightwing conservative leader (Mrs Palin for example after a terrorist attack kills McCain) and this crazy talk could easily be reality by 2012.

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Worst case scenario is that we end up voting in a new hitler. We already have the socialism, and the huge military resources, and the brainwashed population, just needs the right bunch of nutters to be given the keys to the nukes.

What huge military resources do you mean? , if the Falklands happened tommorow we'd probably lose, and the gurkhas would probably go home too after all the times the UK government have kicked them in the teeth.

Sure we might have 150,000 infantry 200 tanks , and 200 Typhoons , couple 100 tornado IV , 50 apaches etc, but iwhen the russians have that X10 , and the reds have that X50 (inferior but numbers over a critical mass ie defeats superior tech ie T34 vs Panther tanks vs Sherman tanks)

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1. Houses will have fallen by at least 50% from peak of 07 (All of them)

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money ..........

If it's cash only (or gold) for a UK property they will need to be very very cheap.

I've never been a fan of urban wastelands, have you?

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My amendments

We get lots of snippets of information spread across various posts on where we are at now. But where do you think we will be by 2012 when we are supposed to be hosting said Olympics?

I myself think the following

1. Houses will have fallen by at least 70% from peak of 07 (All of them)

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money Unless you are

A. Sqeaky clean

B. Have at least 50% up front of your own cash (if not more)

C. And you will only be allowed 2.5x your annual salary that will need to be proved and verified

3. BTL will be dead and buried and the only landlords left will be the shrewd ones who are not over leveraged

4. CDO's SPIVS and all such financial instruments will be slated, hated and possibly never allowed again

5. Gold will be $3000 an ounce if not more

6. Oil will be $200 a barrel or more

7. Inflation will be 1000%

8. Jobless (in the UK) will be 39 million

9. Labour will have returned with 150 (total)due to client state they have built ie dependents on tax credits and dole voters

10. Did I miss anything?

11. Oh yes. Investment banking will be hated by the masses,

You worry too much - Housing market will be well into the next upward cycle and as a result everything will seem fine with the world.

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no idea.

sell all software stocks -Open Source creates a viable form of 'idealistic communism' for all creatives in this field.

beyond that ...er... well..

Russians have OIL and AK74's.

Chinese have bullpup 6.8mm rifles ( a classic case of a British idea capitalized on abroad)

who is investing in Fusion ?

who is investing in the preservation of the deep heirachies required to create these things ?

no idea.

Does humanity even deserve to survive (if so, WHY?)

http://www.globalfirepower.com/

The UK is behind Indian and Brazil ....

6.8mm wtf.

Edited by t350t
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Guest Steve Cook
We get lots of snippets of information spread across various posts on where we are at now. But where do you think we will be by 2012 when we are supposed to be hosting said Olympics?

I myself think the following

1. Houses will have fallen by at least 50% from peak of 07 (All of them)

2. You wont be able to borrow money for love nor money Unless you are

A. Sqeaky clean

B. Have at least 10% up front of your own cash (if not more)

C. And you will only be allowed 3.5x your annual salary that will need to be proved and verified

3. BTL will be dead and buried and the only landlords left will be the shrewd ones who are not over leveraged

4. CDO's SPIVS and all such financial instruments will be slated, hated and possibly never allowed again

5. Gold will be $1500 an ounce if not more

6. Oil will be $200 a barrel or more

7. Inflation will be 10%

8. Jobless (in the UK) will be 3.5 million

9. Labour will have returned only 2 seats in the general election and be blamed (rightly so) for everything (God I hope so)

10. Did I miss anything?

11. Oh yes. Investment banking will be hated by the masses

By 2012 there is strong liklihood that we will be actively preparing for (or will be already engaged in) world war for any or all of the reasons above

Edited by Steve Cook
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I don't think it will unravel as quickly as many seem to think.

But I think things may continue to de-leverage beyond 2012.

I think regulation may insist on it.

I can certainly see a future where financial institutions are not allowed to get anywhere near as big of the likes of todays players. There is far too much systemic risk, too much money in like for like portfolio's, too many identical strategies being followed.

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