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Ftse 100 Below 5000 16 Sep 2008


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I suppose if you imagine the market has positioned itself somewhere in the middle pending news on AIG then it could slump on bad news by another 200 points on bad news down to say 4800/4700 or if it was an AIG bailout then we could see it ending somewhere above 5000.

The strange thing is that each time the market picks off a weakling it moves onto the next and I suspect will keep doing so, the power of the short sellers is too great for these stocks not to simply collapse ... its like shooting fish in a barrel.

I really do believe if HBOS goes it will be the shortsellers who have done for them... sure they were in for a rough ride but I really believe would have survived without this........

.............. back to house prices if HBOS is culled then it'll be shock news for house prices simply becasue they make up such a large part of the lending...... the market simply doesn't have the capacity operationally to soak up the loss of a halifax..... think of who would go Halifax, BM solutions, Bank of scotland, Mortgage works, guy in large glasses..... I am still staggered it dropped 30%(closing at -17% ) yesterday and another 30% today and that its still only a footnote when faced with the wider malaise in the states.

Looks like plans to buy that yacht will have to be put on hold

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I really do believe if HBOS goes it will be the shortsellers who have done for them... sure they were in for a rough ride but I really believe would have survived without this........

I'm not at all convinced that the causal link is that way around.

I understand that short sellers can decimate a share price without good cause - this is a given for the stock market... short-sellers of stocks, on the other hand can't influence write-downs; CDS spreads or counter-party defaults. HBOS has access to emergency funding - as a bank - and, hence, if other banks are irrationally spooked by the share price - their services can be bypassed. If HBOS were to go on to produce good earnings with low defaults on its portfolio, I'm certain that the short-sellers would loose their shirts over time.

Ethically, I prefer the idea of promoting competition to undermining existing business as a speculator... but... if short selling is legal, I'd argue that it is HBOS who created their own mire.

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I'm not at all convinced that the causal link is that way around.

I understand that short sellers can decimate a share price without good cause - this is a given for the stock market... short-sellers of stocks, on the other hand can't influence write-downs; CDS spreads or counter-party defaults. HBOS has access to emergency funding - as a bank - and, hence, if other banks are irrationally spooked by the share price - their services can be bypassed. If HBOS were to go on to produce good earnings with low defaults on its portfolio, I'm certain that the short-sellers would loose their shirts over time.

Ethically, I prefer the idea of promoting competition to undermining existing business as a speculator... but... if short selling is legal, I'd argue that it is HBOS who created their own mire.

www.loseloose.com

A field day today :)

A bit too much excitement for some, perhaps?

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www.loseloose.com

A field day today :)

A bit too much excitement for some, perhaps?

****. I can spell both words correctly when I write with a pen, and when I read something written by someone else... but when I type... Doah!!!

Whatever the excitement, it seems to be causing people to buy... only 85 points down...

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At 17:15 the FTSE is at 4,912.40

We normally see a "Dead cat bounce" around now, maybe tomorrow.

The close below 5000 is very significant, I think. The FTSE definitely seems to have taken more of a hammering than the Dow in the last few days. The Dow is now hitting fresh lows though.

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