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Should Our Crash Be Worse Than The Us?


ezekiel
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Hi

I'm surprised that both prices and sentiment haven't been harsher here in the UK. In the US there appears to be an acceptance of a house price crash and a sub-prime problem (appears to be recognition of a "prime" mortgage problem too). But here in the UK, even though we have a higher level of household and national debt (per capita) no one yet seems to be looking at it in quite the same way. Sure everyone sees that prices are dropping but I'd expected mass panic by now (my prediction was for panic after the lack of a spring bounce).

Here for example no one (in the meeja) has yet started to talk about the same lax lending rules leading to problems.

Given that the papers are quoting a 12% drop in a year, I'd have thought that they'd be hyping it up a bit more.

Do you think that its genuinely worse in the US (I appreciate they're a year ahead of us but they've also had some financial stimulus). I had always believed that things here would be worse (eventually), does anyone else still think this (is it just a matter of more time) or does anyone think that the fall here will bottom out (e.g. because of supply limitations, pent up demand etc.)?

Cheers

Eze

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Hi

I'm surprised that both prices and sentiment haven't been harsher here in the UK. In the US there appears to be an acceptance of a house price crash and a sub-prime problem (appears to be recognition of a "prime" mortgage problem too). But here in the UK, even though we have a higher level of household and national debt (per capita) no one yet seems to be looking at it in quite the same way. Sure everyone sees that prices are dropping but I'd expected mass panic by now (my prediction was for panic after the lack of a spring bounce).

Here for example no one (in the meeja) has yet started to talk about the same lax lending rules leading to problems.

Given that the papers are quoting a 12% drop in a year, I'd have thought that they'd be hyping it up a bit more.

Do you think that its genuinely worse in the US (I appreciate they're a year ahead of us but they've also had some financial stimulus). I had always believed that things here would be worse (eventually), does anyone else still think this (is it just a matter of more time) or does anyone think that the fall here will bottom out (e.g. because of supply limitations, pent up demand etc.)?

Cheers

Eze

The yanks have the ability to make everyone else on earth eat their losses through inflation because they have the world's reserve currency.

We don't. Conversely, because our system is more likely to completely collapse and dissolve we are better placed in the longer term because it's the system that is the problem and getting rid of it is a good thing.

We have barely started this rollercoaster, btw.

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saying that, their crash is much older than ours, we are about a year behind.

You could say that the US crash was born prematurely whereas the UK housing bubble went full-term and received the maximum possible nourishment during its gestation. The crash has now been delivered and it's a monster! Just wait for the terrible 2s!

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Guest mattsta1964
Hi

I'm surprised that both prices and sentiment haven't been harsher here in the UK. In the US there appears to be an acceptance of a house price crash and a sub-prime problem (appears to be recognition of a "prime" mortgage problem too). But here in the UK, even though we have a higher level of household and national debt (per capita) no one yet seems to be looking at it in quite the same way. Sure everyone sees that prices are dropping but I'd expected mass panic by now (my prediction was for panic after the lack of a spring bounce).

Here for example no one (in the meeja) has yet started to talk about the same lax lending rules leading to problems.

Given that the papers are quoting a 12% drop in a year, I'd have thought that they'd be hyping it up a bit more.

Do you think that its genuinely worse in the US (I appreciate they're a year ahead of us but they've also had some financial stimulus). I had always believed that things here would be worse (eventually), does anyone else still think this (is it just a matter of more time) or does anyone think that the fall here will bottom out (e.g. because of supply limitations, pent up demand etc.)?

Cheers

Eze

You ain't seen nothing yet.

Now that new credit is so hard to obtain, the existing pool of money in the economy will run down the plughole as people and businesses service their debt.

This mutha hasn't even started yet

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