Http://www.propertychatuk.com/

[mrcrabs]

Welcome Suffragette,

I am also quite new to this site, but have taken the trouble to read lots of threads before posting. What is said on here is now also being reported daily on all television stations and newspapers. If the content on here makes you want to cut your own wrists, I dread to think what the wider financial crisis must make you want to do to yourself. Are you most upset about this website as it is able to see through the VI spin? Or have you not realised the problems FTB's are facing? You will learn much from these pages if you take the time to read.

[azogar]

Hi all

Just joined the site and I have to say the overall tone makes me want to cut my wrists - there's only such much egotistical self importance one person can take - is this an elite boys club I've joined? How many of you actually have a profitable property portfolio of more than 10-15 properties either built, converted, extended, swapped and sold - or are you just window shoppers!!!! I too have looked on property chat and ok some posts might seem juvenile to you (obviously because you are all soooo experienced) but the site has only started and they do state that it's for people to SHARE their experience with the aim of learning from one another. Interestingly, the experienced members of this site prefer to moan to eachother about the lack of balance and how awful it is - when actually you are perfectly placed to introduce the much needed balance you all keep referring too. Personally, I don't like to see people stuck and don't revel in other people's hardships - there's enough doom and gloom (subby). You also seem to have missed the point - it's not just a forum website and it lets you advertise for FREE and people are taking it up there must be a couple of hundred houses on their already. As a landlady, I think, with a year or so behind it - it could be a really valuable site so good luck to them!!!

wham bam thank you mam!

Welcome btw

if you're sticking around please read some of these threads first before jumping in - I look forward to your contribution; it would be good to get a landladies take on all this

[md23040]

wham bam thank you mam!

Welcome btw

if you're sticking around please read some of these threads first before jumping in - I look forward to your contribution; it would be good to get a landladies take on all this

PP I think Life on Mars would be more appropriate. I think our pet bears VicMac and BB should regerister on the site. Bets on who gets banned first. I await a response to any of the Estate agents to what I've posted on their site. Again circumstances change over the last 12 months for me. It hasn't come about as a result of this site but it can't be ignored in the media and events happening daily. I just hope the capitualtion point passes soon for the banks, who are now at Defcon one.

[azogar]

PP I think Life on Mars would be more appropriate. I think our pet bears VicMac and BB should regerister on the site. Bets on who gets banned first. I await a response to any of the Estate agents to what I've posted on their site. Again circumstances change over the last 12 months for me. It hasn't come about as a result of this site but it can't be ignored in the media and events happening daily. I just hope the capitualtion point passes soon for the banks, who are now at Defcon one.

Hello md

This week has been a bit mad to say the least!

I remember watching HBOS shares capitulate about three weeks ago (immediately prior to the LTSB takeover being announced) and thought things were bad then. FWIW, I think the selling in the SM's will ease for a while but given the ever-changing backdrops we now have, who knows what to expect. The flight to cash is supporting the $ well for now but imho this will be temporary.

I also wonder what will happen to the euro, will it be the new global currency or will the eurozone break up between club med (+ireland) vs. Germany, France and Northern Europe. Interesting times!

ps. odds for BB are 5/4 and vicmac 4/5, all though Subby looks good value at 2/1

[md23040]

I also wonder what will happen to the euro, will it be the new global currency or will the eurozone break up between club med (+ireland) vs. Germany, France and Northern Europe. Interesting times! ps. odds for BB are 5/4 and vicmac 4/5, all though Subby looks good value at 2/1

The euro project was always dodgy. Ireland used it in the past for structural funds etc whilst doing something different to policy on the side. The project is to expensive, bureaucratic, inhibits business development and has to many political agenda's within its members from right to left of the spectrum to be anyway cohesive. It should break because it's rubbish and serves no ones future, except German Franco expansion.

In the Euro context rather than waiting for Brussels to dither and pontificate, Ireland might have been right to ring fence its banks. Even though I disagree with the policy, since markets should find their true balance.

Vicmac 1/40

Btw sterling fell and gold shot up following the interest rate cuts. Libor and Eubor will remain stubborn.

[Malthus]

This week has been a bit mad to say the least!

I also wonder what will happen to the euro, will it be the new global currency or will the eurozone break up between club med (+ireland) vs. Germany, France and Northern Europe. Interesting times!

I've always wondered what would happen if a group of countries wanted to leave the EU , similar to a group of states wanting to leave the USA ?

Although reports of a first strike invasion of France by Ireland maybe a figment of my imagination

[subby]

I was told on that site that I'm ..."doom and gloom merchant"

I take objection to that......I'm only doom and gloom when some 12 year old american kid is whipping my ass on Call of Duty 4 online Search and Destroy

[pootle]

Put 'em right Subby. There is nothing doom and gloom about a return to sensible prices and capital being invested in productive economic endeavours that create real jobs and real wealth. The property bubble was a troublesome boil that has burst, the sooner the pus is cleaned up and the wound healed the sooner the patient recovers from his sickness. The fever and delusion caused by the boil is only just beginning to subside. Soon the patient will realise that he is on the road to recovery and has a bright future!

[suffragette]

Woooo - ok I'm done with the whipping thanks!!!! At least I got one welcome – thanks subby, although I have to say your analysis in my case is wrong. I take umbrage at being tarred as an investor ‘blinded by greed’ and contributed towards todays nightmare for ftbs. I bought my first house nearly 20 years ago and rented out my spare rooms as I was a struggling ftb then. My plan was for the long term, pay the properties off, generate monthly income for my pension as I had no faith in stocks and shares. I didn’t buy anything in the price spike because the rents wouldn’t cover the loans and the prices where ridiculous. I’m certainly not looking any sympathy Nemesis!. Subby - yes ok the prices have gone down but what investments have gone up in the last year (unless you’ve a stack of gold bars under your bed). Thanks for the advice Pootle ‘stick around you might actually learn something useful that could strengthen your financial position’, thankfully I’m not at pension age yet and have managed to pay off a number of properties because I sold when the prices where going mad so I’m not doing too bad. For the record the ‘cutting my wrists’ comment was my idea of ‘black humour’ obviously I’m laughing on my own here! Traktion, I disagree with the general feeling that the house prices are going to continue to drop - in some areas they will - but in many areas I think they're getting very close to levelling out and the reason being if you can buy a council house at £90K (which you can) and rent for £475 per month then the rent to purchase price starts to become sensible and what will then happen at that level investors will start buying in again so in terms of the overall pain that's to come for ftbs I think now is the time to start thinking about property to buy in the next 4/5 months although I'm sure plenty of people here won't agree. Certainly any investors that I know who have been in the game for 15/20 years are waiting in the wings and the consensus amongst them is they'll start buying again in the next 4/5 months. By the way I've no 'vested interest' in saying this but simply because I genuinely believe ftbs should be seriously considering getting ready and doing their homework on where to buy and what to pay. This is my last post on here as I feel I'm better suited to propertychat because I hoped to share my experience on general property matters not simply prices!!! Hope you all find your ideal homes though - good luck!

[azogar]

Woooo - ok I'm done with the whipping thanks!!!! At least I got one welcome – thanks subby, although I have to say your analysis in my case is wrong. I take umbrage at being tarred as an investor ‘blinded by greed’ and contributed towards todays nightmare for ftbs. I bought my first house nearly 20 years ago and rented out my spare rooms as I was a struggling ftb then. My plan was for the long term, pay the properties off, generate monthly income for my pension as I had no faith in stocks and shares. I didn’t buy anything in the price spike because the rents wouldn’t cover the loans and the prices where ridiculous. I’m certainly not looking any sympathy Nemesis!. Subby - yes ok the prices have gone down but what investments have gone up in the last year (unless you’ve a stack of gold bars under your bed). Thanks for the advice Pootle ‘stick around you might actually learn something useful that could strengthen your financial position’, thankfully I’m not at pension age yet and have managed to pay off a number of properties because I sold when the prices where going mad so I’m not doing too bad. For the record the ‘cutting my wrists’ comment was my idea of ‘black humour’ obviously I’m laughing on my own here! Traktion, I disagree with the general feeling that the house prices are going to continue to drop - in some areas they will - but in many areas I think they're getting very close to levelling out and the reason being if you can buy a council house at £90K (which you can) and rent for £475 per month then the rent to purchase price starts to become sensible and what will then happen at that level investors will start buying in again so in terms of the overall pain that's to come for ftbs I think now is the time to start thinking about property to buy in the next 4/5 months although I'm sure plenty of people here won't agree. Certainly any investors that I know who have been in the game for 15/20 years are waiting in the wings and the consensus amongst them is they'll start buying again in the next 4/5 months. By the way I've no 'vested interest' in saying this but simply because I genuinely believe ftbs should be seriously considering getting ready and doing their homework on where to buy and what to pay. This is my last post on here as I feel I'm better suited to propertychat because I hoped to share my experience on general property matters not simply prices!!! Hope you all find your ideal homes though - good luck!

House Prices in NI have just fallen 30% in 9 months, the velocity of that fall cannot level off immediately without graduation, that graduation points to at least another -20% at this moment in time. compare the shape of the NI bubble on a graph using nominal data with previous bubbles.

but as always, I don't have a crystal ball, just an eye on historical cycles that repeat themselves (with different amplitude)

[shipbuilder]

Certainly any investors that I know who have been in the game for 15/20 years are waiting in the wings and the consensus amongst them is they'll start buying again in the next 4/5 months.

You're obviously telling us this because you feel that this investor activity will start to push prices up again. So how many investors are waiting in the wings? Are there really enough to support prices in the middle of the worst global recession in decades? Given that these investors have been buying for 15-20 years, one must wonder why prices weren't rocketing in that time, buoyed up by this flood of investor activity?

Will banks be lining up to hand out interest only BTL mortgages to 'investors' already holding 15-20 rapidly depreciating assets in probably the fastest falling property market in the world?

[wayoutwest]

You're obviously telling us this because you feel that this investor activity will start to push prices up again. So how many investors are waiting in the wings? Are there really enough to support prices in the middle of the worst global recession in decades? Given that these investors have been buying for 15-20 years, one must wonder why prices weren't rocketing in that time, buoyed up by this flood of investor activity?

Will banks be lining up to hand out interest only BTL mortgages to 'investors' already holding 15-20 rapidly depreciating assets in probably the fastest falling property market in the world?

Are investors waiting in the wings or hiding from the banks?

[nemesis]

....This is my last post on here as I feel I'm better suited to propertychat because I hoped to share my experience on general property matters not simply prices!!!..........

"General property matters" What? Curtain fabric or something! In the middle of the greatest housing crash of all time, responsible for the near collapse of the banking system, we have an investor who doesn't think prices are worth discussion. Priceless!

[Belfast Boy]

ps. odds for BB are 5/4 and vicmac 4/5, all though Subby looks good value at 2/1

Can I bet on myself? Do they have signatures? My sugnature would probably be enough to get me banned from that website.

Anyone who believes the stuff being posted on that website (with all the news that is on the main stream media today) deserves to be in negitive equity.

[cacot]

Traktion, I disagree with the general feeling that the house prices are going to continue to drop - in some areas they will - but in many areas I think they're getting very close to levelling out and the reason being if you can buy a council house at £90K (which you can) and rent for £475 per month then the rent to purchase price starts to become sensible and what will then happen at that level investors will start buying in again so in terms of the overall pain that's to come for ftbs I think now is the time to start thinking about property to buy in the next 4/5 months although I'm sure plenty of people here won't agree. Certainly any investors that I know who have been in the game for 15/20 years are waiting in the wings and the consensus amongst them is they'll start buying again in the next 4/5 months. By the way I've no 'vested interest' in saying this but simply because I genuinely believe ftbs should be seriously considering getting ready and doing their homework on where to buy and what to pay. This is my last post on here as I feel I'm better suited to propertychat because I hoped to share my experience on general property matters not simply prices!!! Hope you all find your ideal homes though - good luck!

The rest is cut as if it is true then fair play. Though by owning more than one house you are in part contributing to the lessened likelyhood that others will be able to afford. Think of it this way, if you did not own the house, they could not rent it, they would use your profit rental yield to purchase it. So you are causing FTB to be priced out like it or not.

House prices have fallen by more than 30% ON AVERAGE. This is true as we can see all the new houses not factored in dropping by 40-50% so drops are severe and have taken a year. If the investors you say are "waiting in the wings for 4-5 months" then they are idiots, as they are buying as the market rises rather than falls.(Spring bounce type)

So if they thought they would not adjust further they would buy now. They are not. They are waiting to see if it falls further, which it will by the way. They and you are trying to set up a price situation where, like certain EA's who write in the Belfast telegraph and propertynews, try to convince joe public that the crash is over go and buy your homes. NEWS JUST IN:- the adjustment/crash/apocalypse, call it what you will, will continue for another year at least. The land bought at top prices has not even got planning yet and they certainly cannot afford to just sit on it. No they will either try to develop it or engineer a price rise. IMPOSSIBLE - the baks are never going to be allowed to lend in the manner they did to cause the rise. Unemployment will cause a fall, recession will amplify it, banks/government will control it. People do not trust banks with their money, so they will be less inclined to save = lower deposits.

Give me a concrete argument as to why in 4-5 months the house prices will rise?

You can't... and that is why you and many others read this and will not come out to discuss it. Reporters report this as it is relatively and openly and evenly well argued, fact driven, case enhanced information that is out there to help the FTB. Those who you would quite clearly and happily have pay your retirement rather than live with a bit more security in theirs. I am not saying you have not worked hard to earn this. Many others who were more unfortunate than you have now got portfolios with houses that noone will touch with a BTL mortage. SVR and high rates for them, raised rent, no tenants, repossession or sale, their choice. For me I will sit and wait, save and prepare, for the day that they come to me and ask me to buy their house. Fear is more powerful than greed. This is seen clearly in a market that you could make a killing in, though most people - the bravest in fact, are terrified of what is to come.

Happy Investing!!!

Oh, and welcome!