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We Lent By Every Possible Means... To An Immense Amount

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Sound familiar?

Will Fed Stimulation End the Credit Contraction?

By: John Lee Wednesday, August 06, 2008 5:53 PM

We lent by every possible means and in modes we have never adopted before; we took in stock on security, we purchased Exchequer bills, we made advances on Exchequer bills, we not only discounted outright, but we made advances on Exchequer bills of exchange to an immense amount, in short, by every possible means... seeing the dreadful state in which the public were, we rendered every assistance.

Your starter for ten. What year was that quote taken from? :o

Edited by AvidFan

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If We Don't Learn Our History, We're Doomed to Repeat It

http://behavioural-psychology.suite101.com...tion_compulsion

How to determine if you're repeating the past:

You consistently ignore the negative consequences of your actions (and you're obviously repeating the past). For example, when you're stressed about work you always eat donuts, potato chips, and chocolate bars until midnight – then wake up feeling disgustingly fat and sluggish. Yet, you ignore the awful feelings and not only do you keep on eating, you don't deal with the source of the stress (eg, get a different job or delegate some responsibilities). You're repeating the past and suffering for it.

10 ways to stop repeating the past:

1. Counseling with a therapist familiar with repetition compulsion.

2. Self-awareness and honesty.

3. Books. To stop repeating the past, read about habits and motivation.

4. Workshops or lectures about repetition compulsion.

5. Support groups.

6. Friends or family that will support you as you stop repeating the past.

7. Crisis moment or pivotal experience (eg, experience with death).

8. Medication (if you're depressed, for instance, learn about antidepressants).

9. Quitting cold turkey.

10. Find relief through vacations, exercise, hobbies, new activities. To stop repeating the past, you may need to distract yourself.

When you're trying to stop repeating the past, you may not know which way will work best for you until you try each method. Pick the most obvious or easiest method to stop repeating the past, give it your best shot, and see what happens. If it doesn't work, then pick another path. A combination of things (such as books and support groups) is an often effective way to stop repeating the past.

There may be no easy answers – but at least you're aware of your tendency towards repeating the past.

http://www.guymacon.com/MIRROR/DEMARCO/INDEX.HTM

Excerpt from: WHY DOES SOFTWARE COST SO MUCH? (And other Puzzles of the Information Age) By Tom DeMarco

The lesson of history, though often stated simplistically, is never simple, and we do end up repeating it again and again. Our own field of software development is a perfect example. We seem to be stuck in a giant loop, repeating the same dumb mistakes in one project after another. After all these years, we still can't estimate, we still can't believe that we can't estimate (so we trust the latest set of numbers, even though the last few hundred sets were proved unrealistic), we still can't specify, we still can't reuse much of anything we've built before, and we still can't deliver software for what consensus dictates is the "right" price or in the "right" elapsed time.

On one project after another, we excuse doing things in a way that everyone knows is wrong because "there isn't time to do it right." We code before design, we design before specification, we specify before understanding the requirements. Then, at the end, we have a Lessons Learned meeting, where we point out that we really shouldn't do any of those things. Lessons Learned sessions are all the same (I know, I attend a lot of them). The people and the organizations and the applications may be different, but the actual lessons learned are the same. People raise their hands and grumble, "We really shouldn't set schedules based entirely on what Marketing would like to see and without regard to how much work there is to do." Everyone nods sadly. Another lesson learned. Again. Am I the only one who ever wonders why we keep relearning lessons we thought we had learned years ago?

THE TRANCE STATE CONJECTURE

When you take a wrong turn, then realize it's a mistake and backtrack, an automatic learning process is invoked that helps you avoid the mistake in the future. The process is not infallible, though. If you don't travel the same route for a few years, you may well make the same mistake again, but probably only one more time. The reinforced learning process is powerful. The second backtracking is almost certainly accompanied by a good deal of your muttering, "What a dummy!"

If you travel the same route every day and every single day make the same mistake, taking exactly the same wrong turn, there is something else going on. It's not that you haven't learned, but rather that your learned response is being overwhelmed by some unconscious but dominating need. I suggest the need is unconscious, because if it were conscious, you would understand its role in your route choice and not think of the turn as a "mistake.' You might see it as unwise or imprudent or hopeless, but it is not a simple error.

When your actions are driven by forces that you don't completely understand, you are by definition in a kind of trance. The forces that drive you are hidden rules.

The propensity of software organizations to make the same mistakes again and again leads me to believe that these organizations are in a trance. On a conscious level, they believe their decisions are governed by clearly articulated and widely known rules like

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How to determine if you're repeating the past:

You consistently ignore the negative consequences of your actions (and you're obviously repeating the past). For example, when you're stressed about work you always eat donuts, potato chips, and chocolate bars until midnight – then wake up feeling disgustingly fat and sluggish. Yet, you ignore the awful feelings and not only do you keep on eating, you don't deal with the source of the stress (eg, get a different job or delegate some responsibilities). You're repeating the past and suffering for it.

10 ways to stop repeating the past:

1. Counseling with a therapist familiar with repetition compulsion.

2. Self-awareness and honesty.

3. Books. To stop repeating the past, read about habits and motivation.

4. Workshops or lectures about repetition compulsion.

5. Support groups.

6. Friends or family that will support you as you stop repeating the past.

7. Crisis moment or pivotal experience (eg, experience with death).

8. Medication (if you're depressed, for instance, learn about antidepressants).

9. Quitting cold turkey.

10. Find relief through vacations, exercise, hobbies, new activities. To stop repeating the past, you may need to distract yourself.

When you're trying to stop repeating the past, you may not know which way will work best for you until you try each method. Pick the most obvious or easiest method to stop repeating the past, give it your best shot, and see what happens. If it doesn't work, then pick another path. A combination of things (such as books and support groups) is an often effective way to stop repeating the past.

There may be no easy answers – but at least you're aware of your tendency towards repeating the past.

I think you forgot the essential step 11 here:

11. If you're still doing it after trying all 10 methods, then go back to step 1 :lol:

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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