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ianbeale

Is There A Measurable Definition Of An Hpc

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we broke the 10% barrier today - is there an official definition in measurable "fall from peak" terms of what costitutes an official crash

10% works for me

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we broke the 10% barrier today - is there an official definition in measurable "fall from peak" terms of what costitutes an official crash

10% works for me

On here it's always been generally considered to be a -1% reduction per month for a sustained period, 6 months to a year. Thats crash speed, once your at that level then it's difficult to get out of it and so the falls just continue to go down.

Personally I'd say 20% or so would be a crash, looking likely that it will be much more than that, more specifically I'd say 20% because a 10% drop could be recovered from fairly quickly if conditions changed (not saying they will).

Edited by gilf

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This was discussed a while back,there was a link to some American economist that claimed the official definition of a crash was -15% peak to trough inflation-adjusted.Can't be far off in the last eleven months with -11.22% on Halifax and factoring in 11 months RPI growth.

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i think a crash in house prices is smaller than a crash in other comodeties because the market is a lot less volitile to start with. any move of 15% either way is a big deal with house prices, but on oil or gold its pretty much accepted.

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i think a crash in house prices is smaller than a crash in other comodeties because the market is a lot less volitile to start with. any move of 15% either way is a big deal with house prices, but on oil or gold its pretty much accepted.

Damn right.Also the only asset(liability these days)that most people own and it is usually geared.Owning an average house of 200K with a 170K mortgage during a 15% fall= -15% on house,-100% of equity.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I seem to remember 10% being bandied about when most people though that such a scenario was impossible. Like all questions of semantics the answer is relative, the perma bulls on MSE prefer 'correction' and will not use 'crash' do describe anything short of a 100% reduction so they can save face. I like a 10% fall from peak in one year as a crash definition- whatever floats your boat really.

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It took us 3 years from peak to lose 10% in nominal terms in "Great Crash" 1.

I think we should be calling it "Minor Correction 1".

I may not be able to define an HPC, but I know one when I see one.

And I am looking at one right now (metaphorically that is).

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I'd say it's relative to the circumstances. House prices have rocketed over the last 8 years at a level never seen before so there is more scope for prices to drop by much more this time round as opposed to the 90s. So 10% may have been seen as a crash in the 90s whilst 30-40% would be a more likely amount this time round.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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