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vision (not Vision EA)

Housing Market Slowdown "not In Anybody's Interests"

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Anybody miss the article on UTV news tonight can catch up on the u.tv website.

Jamie Delargy is reporting, not just on house prices, but on the housing market in three dimensions. The snarl up in the number of sales transactions taking place is having major repecussions on our jobs, spending power and the economy as the ripple effect continues.

He said "it's in everybody's interests that homes trade, whether at this price, a lower or at a higher price".

The possibility of the Housing Executive buying up unsold new build property also was welcomed.

Edited by vision

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The possibility of the Housing Executive buying up unsold new build property also was welcomed.

It would be a scandal if the NI government were to spend public money to bail out private developers. They didn't share their gains in the good times we won't share their losses now! The NIHE should buy by all means - from the receiver following bankruptcy provided the houses had first failed to sell in public auction.

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Why should I care about the velocity of the housing market?

I care about the underlying reason for a slowdown - if it is because of revulsion from the asset class then that is a good thing from the the point of affordability - I don't want to have to bid against people who are prepared to be reckless in their borrowing to finance an unbalanced obsession with housing

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I think it is correct that the lack of activity is a problem. There is a simple solution to the problem. It has nothing to do with the government pumping money into the market, it has nothing to do with stamp duty holidays and it has nothing to do with executive buying up unsold property - it is totally to do with sellers reducing prices.

It is naive to think that such an insignificant country as ours can throw enough money at the problem to turn the tide of a global economic crisis. The efforts of our political leaders to do so just show their lack of adventure and insight. They will throw public money away, their efforts will fail and the money will be lost - all to try and pander to the stupid, naive and greedy within the population.

I saw one possible suggestion to try and revive the situation. Whilst the realities may make it impossible, it seemed like a novel approach with the merit that it could actually work (distinct from the present ideas which dont even add up in theory). Instead of trying to inject money in to tackle the problem, force the commodity to match up to the money available. The banks will lend 3x joint income, well then lets try and force house prices down there. We get prices down then people will buy again. People buying allows people to build. People building and buying gives way for people to furnish and decorate....etc. Tennuously this could then be linked to a wider impact on pricing. Because we are ceasing to print vast sums of money, our currency stops playing 'prison bi*ch'. We strengthen relative to other currencies instead of weakening. Notable the dollar. If we strenghten then things like oil will decrease as a result. It might sound a bit like deflation, but it would not initially be so - in terms of money supply, we would not be removing money from the system (well at least not until the naive/stupid/greedy default). How do we attempt to do this? Fire up the interest rates. I have a feeling that the result would be several months of sheer terror as a rapid correction took over followed by a rapid recovery as we bottom out whilst the rest of the world is still well on the way down.

Mind you, it could be a bit jurassic park. If we turn off the entire system and then bring it back online, the bad programming will be removed and everything will start returning to normal. I for one voulenteer we send the labour party out for the subsequent raptor buffet! I think many of us might enjoy watching our politicians being eaten alive!!!

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It would be a scandal if the NI government were to spend public money to bail out private developers. They didn't share their gains in the good times we won't share their losses now! The NIHE should buy by all means - from the receiver following bankruptcy provided the houses had first failed to sell in public auction.

My naive hope would be that they would do so at a price which the greater market could support! The developers would lose out on total price but their motivation would be that they could reliably offload the lot with minimum hassle!

Lets face it though, the NI executive has plenty enough financial trouble - whatever they would do would be little more than farting into the wind. A few developers might get out with little more than scorchmarks but they simply cannot afford to tackle the wider problem.

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Anybody miss the article on UTV news tonight can catch up on the u.tv website.

Jamie Delargy is reporting, not just on house prices, but on the housing market in three dimensions. The snarl up in the number of sales transactions taking place is having major repecussions on our jobs, spending power and the economy as the ripple effect continues.

He said "it's in everybody's interests that homes trade, whether at this price, a lower or at a higher price".

The possibility of the Housing Executive buying up unsold new build property also was welcomed.

Imagine spending 200k on a new home last year or even now to find in 6 months the streets full of housing executive tenants! So you could have an imigrant from Poland who lost his construction job, living in a housing exec house right beside your 200k house!

Completet madness to buy a house in a new development with the fact it could into basically a council house neighbourhood! Knowing that in a few years they can buy the house at a discount from the housing exec at a discount to the market rate!

Edited by trebor21

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This is correct, a slow market is in no-one's interests. The solution's easy, though, and we all know what it is - reduce those prices.Buying up housing with public money, however, helps NOBODY because it doesn't address the root cause.

Of course the people with the most affect on house prices are EAs, who should be doing their utmost to get the market moving again , by lowering valuations and advising clients to accept the offers they get.

Anything else would be planning to go out of business - why would anyone want to do that?

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Anybody miss the article on UTV news tonight can catch up on the u.tv website.

Jamie Delargy is reporting, not just on house prices, but on the housing market in three dimensions. The snarl up in the number of sales transactions taking place is having major repecussions on our jobs, spending power and the economy as the ripple effect continues.

He said "it's in everybody's interests that homes trade, whether at this price, a lower or at a higher price".

The possibility of the Housing Executive buying up unsold new build property also was welcomed.

Yes exactly. It was myopic in the extreme to believe that you can build a sustainable economy on a "debt and consume economic model". The market should be allowed to purge itself from these huge mal investments. It will be very painful for alot of people. However, this is a chance to educate ourselves and a chance for the economy to realign and build capital and infrastructure.

What does Delargy want...to go back to rising prices and have an even worse recession. The government and these ill informed people are going to cost the economy more by trying to prevent a deep recession. It wil cost more in the medium and long run. Do they want another asset bubble? It doesn't work.

The proposals that are being suggested are criminal and will only lead to a catastrophic "crack up boom" down the road. Its like Von Mises said...

The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

and

This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy.

But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.

It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last.

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I heard yesterday that several new build houses in Carnlough, which had been on the market for some time with absolutely no interest, have been bought by a housing association and allocated by the HE.

Don't know what was paid for them though.

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I heard yesterday that several new build houses in Carnlough, which had been on the market for some time with absolutely no interest, have been bought by a housing association and allocated by the HE.

Don't know what was paid for them though.

They should be made to declare this information publicly, including what prices were paid. We have a right to know where our taxes are going! :angry:

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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