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House Price Crash Forum
ReggiePerrin

"the Market Will Recover And Hpi Will Resume."

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I've read quite a few comments recently in response to news articles, and also in a number of posts here on HPC, that the current problems with the housing market are nothing more than a blip caused by the credit crunch. That at some point in the future it's going to be business as usual again and the rapid rise in house prices will continue. To justify their reasoning people talk of lack of supply, single person families, immigration and a host of other issues.

Assuming that the current credit issues aren't a blip, but the start of a new reality where banks are not going to be able to lend the same sums that they've been able to over the past few years, meaning house prices have to drop. Assuming this is correct, at what point does the belief amongst those who think prices will recover disappear, and what effect will this have on the property market?

Is it going to take years of continuous price drops before people accept a new reality of lower property prices? Is it possible to have a rapid change in sentiment, and what type of event could trigger this And finally will there be panic as people attempt to cut their losses (this probably applies more to BTL'ers), or are we going to have a prolonged crash over many years/decades?

Also what are the longterm effects of a housing crash? Are people going to laugh when other's suggest buying a property as an investment?

I'm more interested in the psychology of the sellers that are currently in denial, and the impact a change in their thinking will/could have on the market; rather than a discussion on the weakness of the arguments they use to justify that prices only ever go up.

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Is it going to take years of continuous price drops before people accept a new reality of lower property prices? Is it possible to have a rapid change in sentiment, and what type of event could trigger this And finally will there be panic as people attempt to cut their losses (this probably applies more to BTL'ers), or are we going to have a prolonged crash over many years/decades?

Yes I'm afraid it's going to take the drip/drip/drip of reducing prices over say 2 years to convince some people that they need to reconsider the value of their own little nestegg.

A rapid change in sentiment or the psychology of the market will only come about with e.g a sudden and large increase in the number of people being laid off from work, or a collapse in the Banking sector, or inflation at 14%!

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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