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Scott Mills

Yield Curve

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This is a great website for looking at long (and short) term interest rates. I use this all the time for getting a feel for the pricing on long dated debt.

UK:

http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap_extended.html

US:

http://www.swap-rates.com/USSwap_extended.html

LIBOR:

http://www.swap-rates.com/Libor.html

Libor is still trading at a healthy premium to the base rate. The credit issues are far, far from over.

Note the UK has the dreaded inverse yield curve. A lot of people think that is a pretty strong indicator of recession...

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This is a great website for looking at long (and short) term interest rates. I use this all the time for getting a feel for the pricing on long dated debt.

UK:

http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap_extended.html

US:

http://www.swap-rates.com/USSwap_extended.html

LIBOR:

http://www.swap-rates.com/Libor.html

Libor is still trading at a healthy premium to the base rate. The credit issues are far, far from over.

Note the UK has the dreaded inverse yield curve. A lot of people think that is a pretty strong indicator of recession...

We've had a backward bending yield curve for a while. I think there are a number of explanations, but tI know that the requirements of pension funds to hold lots of long term bonds has done a lot to push the price of these up relative to short-term bonds. There's probably more important reasons though

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It's down to demographics and the impending baby boom retirement.

Going to the annuity market with a large number of cohorts is not good.

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This is a great website for looking at long (and short) term interest rates. I use this all the time for getting a feel for the pricing on long dated debt.

UK:

http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap_extended.html

US:

http://www.swap-rates.com/USSwap_extended.html

LIBOR:

http://www.swap-rates.com/Libor.html

Libor is still trading at a healthy premium to the base rate. The credit issues are far, far from over.

Note the UK has the dreaded inverse yield curve. A lot of people think that is a pretty strong indicator of recession...

Good website, I just tend to look at the BBC website, and the raw numbers, but that doesn't trcack the changes.

As you inverted yield curve, I think it precedes all recessions, but doesn't always indicate a recession. In this case, I'd suggest it does!

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It's down to demographics and the impending baby boom retirement.

Going to the annuity market with a large number of cohorts is not good.

Isn't that why creating artificial credit derivatives that looked like bonds were based on mortgages seemed a good idea? Also why the pension funds are so in trouble now?

A quick websearch on UK FTSE pension funds, indicates most have around 10% or more in fixed income products... I guess that included RMBS?

As to the annuity issue... I'm not so sure, it has an effect, but the market knowing that the UK has no economy left after the mortgage bubble bursts and destroys financial services is surely more significant?

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We've had a backward bending yield curve for a while. I think there are a number of explanations, but tI know that the requirements of pension funds to hold lots of long term bonds has done a lot to push the price of these up relative to short-term bonds. There's probably more important reasons though

Interesting how times have moved on! The yield curve seems to be back to its proper shape. Must indicate future inflation expectations, and showed the bonds markets predicted what is going on quite accurately.

http://www.yieldcurve.com/marketyieldcurve.asp

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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