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Some Questions About Banks And Supply Of Housing On The Market Here

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In the London based banks we seem to haing the reoccurring theme of insolvency, and in the US. However, in NI we have had the biggest housing bubble, yet I dont here anything about the viability of the ULster Bank, Northern Bank, First Trust, BOI...well I do hear some about BOI.

Anyone know how they are doing?

I know they are smaller sub banks within larger organisations like RBS and Dankse. However, I fail to see how they can't be having problems. Perhaps we could see mergers as there is too many banks now. With demand dropping for housing surely the product range of these banks is bloated. Do we need them all?

Or are Nationwide and Halifax taking the brunt of the housing fall out here on their balance sheets as they are big mortgage providers here...

And...Anyone got any stats about rising inventories of housing stock? How do they proclaim a housing shortage when we see all these empty unfinished developments and for sale signs?

Thanks...

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How do they proclaim a housing shortage when we see all these empty unfinished developments and for sale signs?

Thanks...

http://www.nihe.gov.uk/annual_report_2007.pdf

if you look at page 10 of the HE's annual report they had 36182 on their waiting list for housing , easy to spin that there is a massive housing shortage and the

private sector should be allowed to build freely .

As far as the banks go :

http://www.northernbank.co.uk/20080429

still posting increasing profit , so no story there then ;)

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In the London based banks we seem to haing the reoccurring theme of insolvency, and in the US. However, in NI we have had the biggest housing bubble, yet I dont here anything about the viability of the ULster Bank, Northern Bank, First Trust, BOI...well I do hear some about BOI.

Anyone know how they are doing?

I know they are smaller sub banks within larger organisations like RBS and Dankse. However, I fail to see how they can't be having problems. Perhaps we could see mergers as there is too many banks now. With demand dropping for housing surely the product range of these banks is bloated. Do we need them all?

Or are Nationwide and Halifax taking the brunt of the housing fall out here on their balance sheets as they are big mortgage providers here...

And...Anyone got any stats about rising inventories of housing stock? How do they proclaim a housing shortage when we see all these empty unfinished developments and for sale signs?

Thanks...

First Trust Bank are part of the AIB Group http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIB_Group

This article was printed a few days ago

AIB profits fall as concern over bad debts increases

SHARES IN AIB, the State's biggest bank, rose 6.8 per cent after it reported better-than-expected pretax profits of €1.28 billion for the half-year to the end of June - a decline of 3 per cent from €1.32 billion for same period last year.

The bank said adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell 4 per cent to 104.9 cent, but it would still be raising its interim dividend by 10 per cent to 30.6 cent in a sign of confidence to the market.

This beat the forecasts of some analysts who had predicted earnings to fall 7-10 per cent and said that the bank would freeze its dividend due to weakening economic conditions.

AIB's share price closed at €7.85, outperforming Bank of Ireland and Anglo Irish Bank.

Emer Lang, analyst at Davy Stockbrokers, said: "It was a good day to bring out mixed news because US banks had enjoyed a big boost (late on Tuesday)."

The bank cut its earnings target for this year to a 8-10 per cent decline from the low single-digit percentage growth it had forecast in May, saying there was no sign of an improvement to tough condition in many of its markets.

AIB expects no economic recovery until the second half of 2010, and said that funding costs would rise and the quality of its loans would deteriorate further.

The bank's Irish profits were down 5 per cent and profits in its capital markets division fell 8 per cent. AIB's Polish business increased profits by 4 per cent.

Higher funding costs, driven by the credit crunch, have led AIB to match new loans to new deposits. Loans grew 6 per cent in the first half of the year, compared to a 9 per cent growth in deposits.

AIB showed a higher-than-expected number of risky loans "on watch", particularly to the beleaguered housebuilding sector.

"Criticised" loans - described as loans that require closer management - jumped by €3.5 billion to €10.2 billion, or 7.6 per cent of loans. Some 60 per cent of the increase related to its loan book in the Republic and 75 per cent this related to property.

Impaired loans, on which AIB anticipates some losses, rose to 1.1 per cent of loans, worth €1.4 billion, from 0.8 per cent, or just over €1 billion, over the six months. AIB said "criticised loans", which included impaired loans, were not necessarily in arrears and did not always end up as losses.

Ms Lang said the 52 per cent rise in criticised loans over six months was "staggering" and reflected the rapid recent deterioration in the property market.

AIB expects its bad debt charge to reach 0.6-0.8 per cent of average loans next year, compared with 0.21 per cent at the end of June and 0.04 per cent last year.

AIB finance director John O'Donnell said the bank had "an intense focus" on its loans, particularly to residential developers. "We acknowledge they are getting worse. We realise we are going to take more bad debts in relation to them and we have given guidance in relation to that."

Mr O'Donnell said the bank would not have to raise any money from shareholders for capital.

The bank is targeting earnings per share of 185-190 cent this year, down from 205.9 cent in 2007, but plans to keep raising its dividend.

Chief executive Eugene Sheehy said the dividend was "below average", amounting to 38 per cent of after-tax profits last year. "We have a strong capital position and we believe it is entirely appropriate to increase slightly the percentage of distribution to reward our shareholders."

Mr Sheehy said the bank had reviewed every Irish loan greater than €1 million. The bank has forecast a bad debt charge of 0.35 per cent of loans this year, up from its previous target of 0.2 per cent.

Arrears of greater than three months rose to 0.63 of the bank's Irish home loans book, from 0.36 per cent at the end of last year.

Mr Sheehy said there was "a significant drop-off" in new mortgages in May and June, despite an "encouraging" start to the year. He said that, of AIB's 100 per cent mortgage book, just nine of 2,318 mortgages were in arrears.

He ruled out any need for the Government to support the property market.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/financ...7368683878.html

I'll do some digging, would be good to know how much bad debt they have

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In the London based banks we seem to haing the reoccurring theme of insolvency, and in the US. However, in NI we have had the biggest housing bubble, yet I dont here anything about the viability of the ULster Bank, Northern Bank, First Trust, BOI...well I do hear some about BOI.

Anyone know how they are doing?

I know they are smaller sub banks within larger organisations like RBS and Dankse. However, I fail to see how they can't be having problems. Perhaps we could see mergers as there is too many banks now. With demand dropping for housing surely the product range of these banks is bloated. Do we need them all?

Or are Nationwide and Halifax taking the brunt of the housing fall out here on their balance sheets as they are big mortgage providers here...

We had the investors between 2005 - 2007 that created our boom, I'd like to know if they got mortgages locally from NI/Irish banks or from England (I think I read that most of those investors where not from NI)

RBS/Ulster Bank had a successful £12 billion rights issue so perhaps they are in a better position compared to the other major UK banks.

Then again that money won't go too far with these kind of losses

Royal Bank of Scotland braced for £1.7b loss

The international credit crunch is set to claim its biggest Scottish casualty later this week when the Royal Bank of Scotland unveils a pre-tax loss for the first half of the year that analysts believe could reach £1.7billion.

Such a loss would be the biggest in British banking history and have major consequences not only for the financial sector, but also the Scottish economy.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/s...icle4460964.ece

And...Anyone got any stats about rising inventories of housing stock? How do they proclaim a housing shortage when we see all these empty unfinished developments and for sale signs?

We have mainly followed stock on sites like PropertyNews (Around 27995 at the moment)

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We had the investors between 2005 - 2007 that created our boom, I'd like to know if they got mortgages locally from NI/Irish banks or from England (I think I read that most of those investors where not from NI)

RBS/Ulster Bank had a successful £12 billion rights issue so perhaps they are in a better position compared to the other major UK banks.

Then again that money won't go too far with these kind of losses

Royal Bank of Scotland braced for £1.7b loss

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/s...icle4460964.ece

We have mainly followed stock on sites like PropertyNews (Around 27995 at the moment)

Thanks man, so is 27995 a rising number. I mean what was it a year ago or 6 months if you can remember of the top of your head. I found a PDF of the Ulster Banks balance sheet online...for 2006...High exposure to commercial propoerty and very high to residential housing. Liabilitys to assets quite tight...and some "mysterious" of balance sheet stuff.

I would like see this years...

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Thanks man, so is 27995 a rising number. I mean what was it a year ago or 6 months if you can remember of the top of your head. I found a PDF of the Ulster Banks balance sheet online...for 2006...High exposure to commercial propoerty and very high to residential housing. Liabilitys to assets quite tight...and some "mysterious" of balance sheet stuff.

I would like see this years...

This is purely off the top of my head but I think around January 2007 the total number was around 500 - 1000 listed on PropertyNews.

I think the figure is somewhere in the main NI thread, someone will know a more accurate number. The increase has been incredible! It has been rising to 27995 for a couple of months now but the velocity has slows down a great deal, I don't think it'll go much higher.

We created a thread monitoring the increase numbers on PropertyNews, I'll see if I can find it

Edited by YoungFTB

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In the London based banks we seem to haing the reoccurring theme of insolvency, and in the US. However, in NI we have had the biggest housing bubble, yet I dont here anything about the viability of the ULster Bank, Northern Bank, First Trust, BOI...well I do hear some about BOI.

Anyone know how they are doing?

I know they are smaller sub banks within larger organisations like RBS and Dankse. However, I fail to see how they can't be having problems. Perhaps we could see mergers as there is too many banks now. With demand dropping for housing surely the product range of these banks is bloated. Do we need them all?

Or are Nationwide and Halifax taking the brunt of the housing fall out here on their balance sheets as they are big mortgage providers here...

And...Anyone got any stats about rising inventories of housing stock? How do they proclaim a housing shortage when we see all these empty unfinished developments and for sale signs?

Thanks...

3/4 of our banks are foreign owned or owned by a major UK bank so if you hear of them in trouble then our banks are too :D

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VT the ESF Securitisation Data Report Q1:2008 was posted in this thread yesterday

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=84038

Here is the link to the info

http://www.europeansecuritisation.com/Mark...t%202008-Q1.pdf

Irelands figures are very low comparatively speaking

Issuance By Collateral & Country

2007 Figures

ABS - 2 Billion

CMBS - 1.5 Billion

RMBS - 6.9 Billion

Total - 10.4 Billion

2008 Figures

RMBS - 2.5 Billion

Balances OUtstanding By Country Of Collateral

Ireland

2007 Q3 - 18.6 Billion

2007 Q4 - 18 Billion

2008 Q1 - 16.9 Billion

In section 10.1 (Page 21) there is a breakdown of the investors who own the investor types

Bank

RMBS - 67.8%

CMBS - 63.3%

11.2 - European ABCP Issuance By Nationality Of Issuer

Ireland - 36.5 Billion We come first in this, I assume this means that Ireland issued the most ABCP

11.5 ABCP Outstanding By Nationality Of Issuer

Ireland 10.1 Billion

11.8 ABCP Outstanding Assets Split By Country

Ireland - 1.1% We are almost at the bottom of the list

I know this doesn't give a bank to bank breakdown but the report has plenty of interesting and useful info. Maybe Irelands problems won't be anywhere near as bad as many other countries.

Edited by YoungFTB

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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