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How's The Crash Cooking? Few Vendors Are Tender Yet.

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Some snippets from my chats to agents across the South East and outer London... bit anecdotal-ish I know, but 100% true from my checks on RightMove and is a faithful repeat of what agents have said, many of whom sound quite frustrated and are only too happy to chat with cheery old me as they've little else to do apart from deal with angry vendors wondering why they've not sold yet...

"Auctions were doing fine until May and then a sudden drop off"

(Same firm's auction list shows most unsold last time in June, but for the forthcoming auction a good few "sold priors", the guide prices look steep)

"Vendors aren't dropping prices, we tell them to if they want to sell but they won't"

"Some vendors are putting a price on for 4 weeks then say they will drop if no viewers or offers in that time". I asked for examples, these were places that any drop - unless drastic - would be token

"Many of the vendors are now going to rent out as they can't sell, rentals are still going ok". My own checks show a rental slowdown and decreasing rents 5 to 12%.

"It's been on since spring, no offers, they've reduced it 6% last month though, still no offers."

Of the checks I've done along the South coast and parts of the South east, with the exception of Southampton, I see NO MEANINGFUL REDUCTIONS as yet.

They are either of the mind that price falls won't affect them or they believe the government (LOL) will succeed in whatever stimulus packages it proposes, so they're hanging on. How long can they hang on for if they don't rent it out either and have a mortgage? Probably not that long.

But as someone else said, until unemployment kicks in, a large number of vendors might hang on and on until the more vulnerable have to capitulate and prices fall on competing properties. Where I'm looking, don't really see a glut of properties on yet, much to my surprise, perhaps the landslide will start in September.

All contrary views and shouts of "troll" welcomed ! Sadly ain't fibbing, although I see the odd drop here and there and Snake shows alleged drops (how many were hiked up just to be dropped though?), so far looks like hope springs eternal for well-heeled vendors and agents are humouring them at least for now.

On a slightly off but related note, the crowd around the Sainsbury's Reduced Shelf at the chilled aisle - biggest I've ever seen.

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Of the checks I've done along the South coast and parts of the South east, with the exception of Southampton, I see NO MEANINGFUL REDUCTIONS as yet.

Are you really seeing anything meaningful in Southampton? There are people dropping prices by seemingly large amounts, but a lot of these are either way overvalued to start with, or the price gets increased again after a couple of weeks of drawing attention.

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Some snippets from my chats to agents across the South East and outer London... bit anecdotal-ish I know, but 100% true from my checks on RightMove and is a faithful repeat of what agents have said, many of whom sound quite frustrated and are only too happy to chat with cheery old me as they've little else to do apart from deal with angry vendors wondering why they've not sold yet...

"Auctions were doing fine until May and then a sudden drop off"

(Same firm's auction list shows most unsold last time in June, but for the forthcoming auction a good few "sold priors", the guide prices look steep)

"Vendors aren't dropping prices, we tell them to if they want to sell but they won't"

"Some vendors are putting a price on for 4 weeks then say they will drop if no viewers or offers in that time". I asked for examples, these were places that any drop - unless drastic - would be token

"Many of the vendors are now going to rent out as they can't sell, rentals are still going ok". My own checks show a rental slowdown and decreasing rents 5 to 12%.

"It's been on since spring, no offers, they've reduced it 6% last month though, still no offers."

Of the checks I've done along the South coast and parts of the South east, with the exception of Southampton, I see NO MEANINGFUL REDUCTIONS as yet.

They are either of the mind that price falls won't affect them or they believe the government (LOL) will succeed in whatever stimulus packages it proposes, so they're hanging on. How long can they hang on for if they don't rent it out either and have a mortgage? Probably not that long.

But as someone else said, until unemployment kicks in, a large number of vendors might hang on and on until the more vulnerable have to capitulate and prices fall on competing properties. Where I'm looking, don't really see a glut of properties on yet, much to my surprise, perhaps the landslide will start in September.

All contrary views and shouts of "troll" welcomed ! Sadly ain't fibbing, although I see the odd drop here and there and Snake shows alleged drops (how many were hiked up just to be dropped though?), so far looks like hope springs eternal for well-heeled vendors and agents are humouring them at least for now.

On a slightly off but related note, the crowd around the Sainsbury's Reduced Shelf at the chilled aisle - biggest I've ever seen.

For what it’s worth I agree. I’m currently looking to sell, live in rented accommodation and have some cash and like a mentalist due to an incoming bundle of joy could do with buying somewhere.

Certainly the asking prices in the vast majority of cases are not moving down and the vendors we I have dealt with seem to think that a 15% less than asking price offer is a derisory joke. Which considering the ways things are looking I find utterly unbelievable.

It’s either denial or I’m wrong. If it’s denial I can afford to wait, but what if I am wrong. What if all these people honestly believe that their house if worth x bazillion pounds and just refuse to sell until it is?

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Are you really seeing anything meaningful in Southampton? There are people dropping prices by seemingly large amounts, but a lot of these are either way overvalued to start with, or the price gets increased again after a couple of weeks of drawing attention.

You're right, I might be wrong, I'm going by what people there tell me is a good (for now) discount, so they may well be misguided and perhaps no meaningful discounts there either except perhaps one just once somewhere that's somehow become folklore! :lol: I have had a look at NHP to check and found what looks like errors for that, so may be the reason.

Edited by The Last Bear

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For what it’s worth I agree. I’m currently looking to sell, live in rented accommodation and have some cash and like a mentalist due to an incoming bundle of joy could do with buying somewhere.

Certainly the asking prices in the vast majority of cases are not moving down and the vendors we I have dealt with seem to think that a 15% less than asking price offer is a derisory joke. Which considering the ways things are looking I find utterly unbelievable.

It’s either denial or I’m wrong. If it’s denial I can afford to wait, but what if I am wrong. What if all these people honestly believe that their house if worth x bazillion pounds and just refuse to sell until it is?

Then you keep looking until you find the one that isn't in denial.

With one child you can do this, I had to have a certain type of house because I have more than one, but even with 2 children a 3 bed semi will do you nicely and there are plenty of those about, just keep looking and do not allow yourself to "fall in love" with a property, each and every one of them can be made to look like a magazine/show home but the mortgage payments are the only thing you need to love longtime :)

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"Vendors aren't dropping prices, we tell them to if they want to sell but they won't"

"Some vendors are putting a price on for 4 weeks then say they will drop if no viewers or offers in that time". I asked for examples, these were places that any drop - unless drastic - would be token

Of the checks I've done along the South coast and parts of the South east, with the exception of Southampton, I see NO MEANINGFUL REDUCTIONS as yet.

They are either of the mind that price falls won't affect them or they believe the government (LOL) will succeed in whatever stimulus packages it proposes, so they're hanging on. How long can they hang on for if they don't rent it out either and have a mortgage? Probably not that long.

Today with rumours of a stimulus package on Stamp Duty Alastair will have killed the market stone dead. Who is going to buy now if they can save SD by waiting for the announcement. What vendors will accept today's low offer if GB/AD have said they'll improve the market tomorrow. I expect transactions in August to be the lowest EVER

When the stimulus package comes through it will be a sure-fire failure. If it is big and significant vendors up their prices immediately and no sale; if (as expected) it is trivial and disappointing morale drops massively for vendors and the stand-off continues.

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Today with rumours of a stimulus package on Stamp Duty Alastair will have killed the market stone dead. Who is going to buy now if they can save SD by waiting for the announcement. What vendors will accept today's low offer if GB/AD have said they'll improve the market tomorrow. I expect transactions in August to be the lowest EVER

When the stimulus package comes through it will be a sure-fire failure. If it is big and significant vendors up their prices immediately and no sale; if (as expected) it is trivial and disappointing morale drops massively for vendors and the stand-off continues.

Obviously a good post, thanks.

When I do my checks, I look at property prices in amazement then I go and check on NHP and 95/100 the prices are still well up on even late last year even assuming a 10% discount on the asking price!

Which reminds me, one of the agents told me most vendors are happy to take 10% off, no great news considering what they're asking.

So, the stage we're at is: "Vendor knows buyer expects discount, vendor hikes price to give discount".

The only "bargains" at the momemt are some repos, but at some auctions there's auction fever so maybe even those aren't cheap. Lately, auctions I've been checking are showing lower sales and lower prices. I'm at another tomorrow.

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My observation is that about 1 house in 25 is priced at a more sensible level - and the ones that are stick out like a sore thumb.

Most vendors are in denial.

House round the corner from me now been on the market for exacty one year. Same price!

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Obviously a good post, thanks.

When I do my checks, I look at property prices in amazement then I go and check on NHP and 95/100 the prices are still well up on even late last year even assuming a 10% discount on the asking price!

Which reminds me, one of the agents told me most vendors are happy to take 10% off, no great news considering what they're asking.

So, the stage we're at is: "Vendor knows buyer expects discount, vendor hikes price to give discount".

The only "bargains" at the momemt are some repos, but at some auctions there's auction fever so maybe even those aren't cheap. Lately, auctions I've been checking are showing lower sales and lower prices. I'm at another tomorrow.

which auction are you going to? do you have the url? thanks in advance :rolleyes:

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My observation is that about 1 house in 25 is priced at a more sensible level - and the ones that are stick out like a sore thumb.

Most vendors are in denial.

House round the corner from me now been on the market for exacty one year. Same price!

Similar pattern here. Of all the houses within 1/2 mile, only 1 has seriously tried to drop their price (by 20%). The local developer (whose name rhymes with pr1cks, and is one) is still building too, just started work on a development of 14 flats above retail units. He's obviously an optimist.

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July unemployment up 12,000 in one month.

Halifax house prices Aug 07 £199,770 - June 08 £180,344. down £19,426 in ten months.

Nationwide house prices Oct 07 £186,044 - July 08 £169,316. down £16,728 in nine months.

Repossessions up 15% year on year.

Rome wasn't built in a day, give them time their still in denial.

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wtf is a vox pop?

I thought it was a 1970's car

It's an indulgently oxford educated, socially aware, middle class, never known a hungry day (but relates... so long as they don't turn up at the cocktail party :o ), wunkers way of saying "the voice of the populace (or people)" or "get out there are get a few opinions from mugs on the street - to show up these politicians that WE are the keepers of democracy not them". Basically you are right about the era. It became very popular amongst the down and with it socially aware journalists of the 70s to 'ask the people'. Also drive time talk back is a form!

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What if all these people honestly believe that their house if worth x bazillion pounds and just refuse to sell until it is?

Because some people just have to sell.

Divorce, bereavement, redundancy, probate sales, job relocation, repossession, broke and downsizing, retirement dream to be near kids, or abroad, bad 'investment' and so.

These margin sales will set new lower benchmark prices, and will happen.

Just hang on in there!

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Because some people just have to sell.

Divorce, bereavement, redundancy, probate sales, job relocation, repossession, broke and downsizing, retirement dream to be near kids, or abroad, bad 'investment' and so.

These margin sales will set new lower benchmark prices, and will happen.

Just hang on in there!

hmm, but where are the hordes of desperate btl sellers we all predicted before the cgt change in April? Surely given the cgt changes most of them could afford to take a bigger hit now. I'm just not seeing significant falls in btl type houses around my way. Trying to stay optimistic though.

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It's an indulgently oxford educated, socially aware, middle class, never known a hungry day (but relates... so long as they don't turn up at the cocktail party :o ), wunkers way of saying "the voice of the populace (or people)" or "get out there are get a few opinions from mugs on the street - to show up these politicians that WE are the keepers of democracy not them". Basically you are right about the era. It became very popular amongst the down and with it socially aware journalists of the 70s to 'ask the people'. Also drive time talk back is a form!

I presume you went to Cambridge then?

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Does it really matter what prices are at the moment? The fact of the matter is that nothing is selling, so these prices mean absolutley nothing unless you're stupid enough to buy, and I think you'll find these type of people can no longer get a mortgage, hence the situation we find at the moment.

I've just been visiting friends who are moving to Dubai in two weeks; been trying to sell their house for the last 6 months with not one viewing, so they've decided to rent. Lovely house, put on with letting agent to cover mortgage and was let within a week. Anyway, they still believe the price will only go up and as long as the mortgage is covered they're not bothered as the house has more than doubled in price since bought. I didn't bother going into what will happen or is happening to the market, but the fact that they still believe the price will go up even though they didn't get a viewing let alone an offer just goes to show people's mentalility when it comes to the housing market. I really couldn't believe what I was hearing.

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Some snippets from my chats to agents across the South East and outer London... bit anecdotal-ish I know, but 100% true from my checks on RightMove and is a faithful repeat of what agents have said, many of whom sound quite frustrated and are only too happy to chat with cheery old me as they've little else to do apart from deal with angry vendors wondering why they've not sold yet...

ETC

"

Nice thread The Last Bear and quite accurate IMO. It is refreshing when the facts are looked at instead of what you want to hear.

The denial stage can last a long long time for some vendors. I would suggest 3 years plus for some.

As many have said and repeated forced sellers will begin the big push down. Many of these long term die hard "denialists" will be helping to lower prices in maybe 3 years or so when they finally decide to have a reality check.

Remember, EAs need to earn a living like everyone else so the few that are still standing in a year or soes time will be much more selective and forthright with vendors.

IT HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN

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I presume you went to Cambridge then?

No, I went to a crappy little politechnique style institution. Actually it was pretty good and unlike the 'ideas' based institutions it actually taught you how to do everything but spell politechnique. Oh it also encouraged us to do the 'vox pop'. I was pretty good at it actually but I rather wish I had studied architecture or something useful - not some stupid media course that only lead to careers for confident, basically vacant, wunkers!

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which auction are you going to? do you have the url? thanks in advance :rolleyes:

Can't say on public forum, except somewhere in Essex.

Lovely house, put on with letting agent to cover mortgage and was let within a week. Anyway, they still believe the price will only go up and as long as the mortgage is covered they're not bothered as the house has more than doubled in price since bought. I didn't bother going into what will happen or is happening to the market, but the fact that they still believe the price will go up even though they didn't get a viewing let alone an offer just goes to show people's mentalility when it comes to the housing market. I really couldn't believe what I was hearing.

Hmm, this sort of thing prolongs the inevitable.

Nice thread The Last Bear and quite accurate IMO. It is refreshing when the facts are looked at instead of what you want to hear.

The denial stage can last a long long time for some vendors. I would suggest 3 years plus for some.

IT HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN

Thanks, yes 2 or 3 years for some, especially if they manage to let it. Just lately I'm hearing "lots of lets coming on soon". If that happens surely not every place will be let meaning the less attractive places or too ambitiously priced lets will be up for sale the first.

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hmm, but where are the hordes of desperate btl sellers we all predicted before the cgt change in April? Surely given the cgt changes most of them could afford to take a bigger hit now. I'm just not seeing significant falls in btl type houses around my way. Trying to stay optimistic though.

The desperate BTL sellers wanted to make use of a tax break. But if they couldn't sell it meant they missed out on the tax break, but they weren't (necessarily) compelled to sell for going bankrupt otherwise type reasons.

Some BTL's chose to sell to companies they set up & owned.

I think it worked like this:

An individual owned a BTL flat and some cash.

1) Set up limited company - owner and wife as directors.

2) Make personal loan to company of £200k

3) Company buys BTL property from owner, for £200k.

4) Owner (as individual) gets £200k in cash and makes use of CGT allowances - avoids paying CGT on the increase in value since they bought the flat for £60k in 2000.

5) Owner is now owed £200k by company, but has the £200k in cash sitting in personal bank account.

6) Rent now goes to company, but it passes it to owner as interest payment on £200k loan.

So the company they set up pays cash to them as a private individual, and then the cash from that meant they could crystallise the personal CGT allowance, and can then avoid corporation tax as the property falls in value. I guess they had to pay stamp duty though?

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No, I went to a crappy little politechnique style institution. Actually it was pretty good and unlike the 'ideas' based institutions it actually taught you how to do everything but spell politechnique. Oh it also encouraged us to do the 'vox pop'. I was pretty good at it actually but I rather wish I had studied architecture or something useful - not some stupid media course that only lead to careers for confident, basically vacant, wunkers!
Having a go at someone for saying 'vox pop' is pretty lame IMO and just the sort of anti-intellectualism that's put this country in the shit (it's not as if it's that nerdy <_< ). Lets ask ourselves who are the bigger villains: the boffins who went to old universities or the tattooed chavs and media wannabees that seem to be the main role-models nowadays.
Can't say on public forum, except somewhere in Essex.

Hmm, this sort of thing prolongs the inevitable.

Thanks, yes 2 or 3 years for some, especially if they manage to let it. Just lately I'm hearing "lots of lets coming on soon". If that happens surely not every place will be let meaning the less attractive places or too ambitiously priced lets will be up for sale the first.

I'm not so sure. I see the same delusion an denial in Warwickshire. But I see the wheels coming off much sooner. We're already seeing a sustained run of near-record drops in the Haliwide indicators, traditionally good leading indicators, even with widespread denial. I think this one will go very nasty in the autumn/winter once the dam bursts (via rising unemployment & repossession; and further drops in savings & disposable income courtesy of energy price rises).

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Which reminds me, one of the agents told me most vendors are happy to take 10% off, no great news considering what they're asking.

One agent I spoke to (one of the more "reputable" ones in the town) summed it up by saying that only the "well priced bottom 10%" is moving.

The rest are effectively in denial. There's talk of a buyer's strike & a seller's strike. What you also have is about 10% scabs among the sellers and we'll have to see whether, as I expect, that grows.

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My observation is that about 1 house in 25 is priced at a more sensible level - and the ones that are stick out like a sore thumb.

I've noticed the same thing in South Cambs. Those more sensibly prices propertes stand out on Rightmove as being several pages below where you would normally expect to see them.

Even those haven't sold in 2-3 months though.

VMR.

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Esher - lots of price drops.

Here are some examples from the elmbridge thread.

originally 850, now under offer with an asking price of 599 - weston green Thames Ditton

originally around a million, now UO at 799 - ember lane esher

Originally 950k, not even under offer at 750 -ember court road, TD/Esher borders

originally 1.1mill, now under offer at 895 - Riversdale road, TD

And a large propeortion of the houses that have sold seem to have been bought as BTL.

Hardly anything selling at the top end as well. Quite a few on the market and some of these dropping half a million+ and still not selling.

A few do sell, but creating chains seems to be the problem. Have seen houses under offer since May, coming back on the market.

Of course round here we do have our fair share of City Types and it is an area that people like to move out of London to.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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