azogar Posted December 9, 2009 Share Posted December 9, 2009 bought the farm and the tractor yet? rock on Not yet, but i'm working on it ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 standard chartered reckon that the south may feck the euro to be able to indulge in the printy printy scam and inflate away those nasty ious http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-may-exit-euro-region-in-2010-1972016.html rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 now with the dollar seemingly on the rebound and the possibility of further sterling weakness, what's in store for 2010? Stagflation: Stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a significant period of time. link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 now with the dollar seemingly on the rebound and the possibility of further sterling weakness, what's in store for 2010? Stagflation: Stagflation is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a significant period of time. link not only the £ ,euro lookin fecked too seems like a good time to be in anything priced in $ not much to choose from then! about the only commodity that has not rebounded is food so you can guess where i am lookin see those frog farmers are feelin the pain of a strong euro http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/french-farmers-stage-hay-protest-1979590.html i say BALE THEM! ROCK ON! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 (edited) not only the £ ,euro lookin fecked too seems like a good time to be in anything priced in $ not much to choose from then! about the only commodity that has not rebounded is food so you can guess where i am lookin see those frog farmers are feelin the pain of a strong euro http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/french-farmers-stage-hay-protest-1979590.html i say BALE THEM! ROCK ON! we live in a crazy world; from your article - A group of French farmers have dumped piles of hay in front of the French presidential palace to protest against falling food prices and demand more help from the government. Police used tear gas to push back about 100 demonstrators from the Young Farmers union who unfurled a large banner saying "Angry farmers". French farmers are in debt and facing other difficulties as food prices have fallen from record highs in 2007. The Agriculture Ministry said this week that farmers' revenues fell 34% in 2009. The industry crisis is considered the worst in three decades. yet in Asia & the US.... Fastest Food Inflation Since Riots Means Milk Up 39% (Update1) By Alan Bjerga, Madelene Pearson and Yi Tian Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Falling production in commodities from rice to milk is bad news for just about everyone except investors. Rice may surge 63 percent to $1,038 a metric ton from $638 on Philippine imports and a shortage in India, a Bloomberg survey of importers, exporters and analysts showed. The U.S. government says nonfat dry milk may jump 39 percent next year, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts a 25 percent gain for sugar. Global food costs jumped 7 percent in November, the most since February 2008, four months before reaching a record, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Farm prices this year lagged behind copper futures that doubled and oil’s 57 percent increase. A recovery from the worst recession since World War II would spur food demand and boost costs for buyers of commodities including milk processor Dean Foods Co. while increasing the number of hungry people that the UN says now exceeds 1 billion. sugar hit an all time high this year, so i guess it's down to what you are farming btw, where's the cheapest (decent) ag. land in NI at the moment? edit - quote fix Edited December 17, 2009 by p.p. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getdoon_weebobby Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 (edited) btw, where's the cheapest (decent) ag. land in NI at the moment? housepricecrash syndicate to buy up some ag land?!!? ag land is actually something im going to look into. i plan to move to fermanagh in 7/8 years so when the times right an old wreck with some ag land might be just the ticket. depending on how things go in 2010 if we truely have avoided the economic meltdown i thought we really were going to get (benanke time person of the year!) then i have to hold my hands up and say well done. inflation will come quicker than i thought. im starting to edge a little towards £ inflation problems being a possibility tho im still in the deflation camp for now. regardles i still think £100k in land will be better investment by far than £100k in a buy to let in norn iron! Edited December 17, 2009 by getdoon_weebobby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getdoon_weebobby Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 housepricecrash syndicate to buy up some ag land?!!? ag land is actually something im going to look into. i plan to move to fermanagh in 7/8 years so when the times right an old wreck with some ag land might be just the ticket. depending on how things go in 2010 if we truely have avoided the economic meltdown i thought we really were going to get (benanke time person of the year!) then i have to hold my hands up and say well done. inflation will come quicker than i thought. im starting to edge a little towards £ inflation problems being a possibility tho im still in the deflation camp for now. regardles i still think £100k in land will be better investment by far than £100k in a buy to let in norn iron! if its for hands off investment look for some in bonnie scotland! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Markus WellBelly MD Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 marc faber fans go here: http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=me98321#g/u Just watched these clips. Really interesting and makes me wish I'd studied economics at university...until I remember that it's more interesting as a hobby than if your income depended on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BelfastVI Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 (edited) housepricecrash syndicate to buy up some ag land?!!? ag land is actually something im going to look into. i plan to move to fermanagh in 7/8 years so when the times right an old wreck with some ag land might be just the ticket. depending on how things go in 2010 if we truely have avoided the economic meltdown i thought we really were going to get (benanke time person of the year!) then i have to hold my hands up and say well done. inflation will come quicker than i thought. im starting to edge a little towards £ inflation problems being a possibility tho im still in the deflation camp for now. regardles i still think £100k in land will be better investment by far than £100k in a buy to let in norn iron! Interesting view. Ag' Land in some party of NI was selling for £15k per acre. I'm sure that is down to £10k per acre. Farmers have been loosing money from the early 90's. You can rent it out for £150 per acre pa (Yield of 1.5%). So £100k will buy you 10 acres of good Ag' land which you can rent out for £1,500 pa. You can get cheaper land in parts of Fermanagh but the rents will also be lower. £100k on a house could earn you over £5,000 in rent. There are costs to come off that. Both require maintenance. House is built to last 80 to 100 years, whilst the land, well bar flooding it will last for ever. Farmers pay this sort of money as they don't look at returns within years but it is increasing the family wealth over generations as the farmers son would perhaps inherit the land with reduced or perhaps no debt. Personally I don't think Ag land is worth £10k or £15k, purely on a payback basis. The same land in Scotland would be less than £5k per acre. So your £100k in land could suffer a deflation not dissimilar to houses. The land prices were fuelled by farmers who had sold to developers for £m's and had something like 18 months to reinvest back in to land to get the tax break . That is now gone. The most expensive land in NI was in South Armagh and it was related to the oil industry. Both are in decline. Edited December 17, 2009 by BelfastVI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 Interesting view. Ag' Land in some party of NI was selling for £15k per acre. I'm sure that is down to £10k per acre. Farmers have been loosing money from the early 90's. You can rent it out for £150 per acre pa (Yield of 1.5%). So £100k will buy you 10 acres of good Ag' land which you can rent out for £1,500 pa. You can get cheaper land in parts of Fermanagh but the rents will also be lower. £100k on a house could earn you over £5,000 in rent. There are costs to come off that. Both require maintenance. House is built to last 80 to 100 years, whilst the land, well bar flooding it will last for ever. Farmers pay this sort of money as they don't look at returns within years but it is increasing the family wealth over generations as the farmers son would perhaps inherit the land with reduced or perhaps no debt. Personally I don't think Ag land is worth £10k or £15k, purely on a payback basis. The same land in Scotland would be less than £5k per acre. So your £100k in land could suffer a deflation not dissimilar to houses. The land prices were fuelled by farmers who had sold to developers for £m's and had something like 18 months to reinvest back in to land to get the tax break . That is now gone. The most expensive land in NI was in South Armagh and it was related to the oil industry. Both are in decline. well thats one way of looking at it vi "farmers losing money from the early 90s" well actually it was black wednesday march 96 it started to go t!ts up (BSE) then they were hit with a lab gov 97 who crucified them with a strong £ but last couple of years things have changed £ devalued close to 30% allied with reduced production, farmgate prices for certain local produce (bullocks ,lambs etc) have risen 50% or more in the last 3 years! not only have their prices rose but their subsidies which are calculated in euros have increased incrementally as the £ has fallen! you wont hear it in the farming life but i have been talking to a few who say santa is likely to bring them a new 50k tractor just to kill a wee bit of tax! another way of looking at it land in the early 90s was around 3k/acre ( i bought for less) today ? i honestly dont know what good land is worth today so little is on the market but even at 10 k it hasnt done bad also the land changing hands at 15k was not just being bought by farmers with a large devolement cheque it was being bought by some very hardnosed business men who could see sites for new mcmansions for themselves or their family who could use it to pass on their hard earned millons to their family tax free or perhaps they just fancied being lord of the manor! what i do know land unlike houses they wont be building anymore of it land unlike paper money they wont be printing anymore of it land unlike gold they wont be mining any more of it rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted December 17, 2009 Share Posted December 17, 2009 we live in a crazy world; from your article - yet in Asia & the US.... sugar hit an all time high this year, so i guess it's down to what you are farming btw, where's the cheapest (decent) ag. land in NI at the moment? edit - quote fix ther aint no cheap land here! when i said food i should have been more specific i was thinking grain (corn, wheat)of which the frogs produce a lot there have been 2 bumper harvests in a row for grain will it be a hat trick? odds have to be against while consumption steadily increases will rising milk prices encourage farmers to feed more grain to produce more milk? will rising rice prices encourage some to substitute grain for rice in their diet? will oil above 70$ encourage the ethanol plants to use more grain to increase production? just an aul headbangers musings rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted December 18, 2009 Share Posted December 18, 2009 housepricecrash syndicate to buy up some ag land?!!? ag land is actually something im going to look into. i plan to move to fermanagh in 7/8 years so when the times right an old wreck with some ag land might be just the ticket. depending on how things go in 2010 if we truely have avoided the economic meltdown i thought we really were going to get (benanke time person of the year!) then i have to hold my hands up and say well done. inflation will come quicker than i thought. im starting to edge a little towards £ inflation problems being a possibility tho im still in the deflation camp for now. regardles i still think £100k in land will be better investment by far than £100k in a buy to let in norn iron! each to his own if i was wanting a bit of land beside the water i would be looking around strangford lough would certainly be more expensive but for very good reasons think i mentioned it before but i lust after a bit with an old mill site on it boys toys etc recently visited a farmer who turned me green with envy he had a great old mill site on which last year he had installed a new puter controlled turbine the whole kit cost less than a btl would have done at the time but the leccy it was producing and the double rocs he was receiving was bringing him in slightly over £100 /day just slightly better then than a btl! the sad part the new turbine was made in germany the old one was made in cowlrain in a foundry which is now a supermarket car park! progress? rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getdoon_weebobby Posted December 18, 2009 Share Posted December 18, 2009 Interesting view. Ag' Land in some party of NI was selling for £15k per acre. I'm sure that is down to £10k per acre. Farmers have been loosing money from the early 90's. You can rent it out for £150 per acre pa (Yield of 1.5%). So £100k will buy you 10 acres of good Ag' land which you can rent out for £1,500 pa. You can get cheaper land in parts of Fermanagh but the rents will also be lower. £100k on a house could earn you over £5,000 in rent. There are costs to come off that. Both require maintenance. House is built to last 80 to 100 years, whilst the land, well bar flooding it will last for ever. Farmers pay this sort of money as they don't look at returns within years but it is increasing the family wealth over generations as the farmers son would perhaps inherit the land with reduced or perhaps no debt. Personally I don't think Ag land is worth £10k or £15k, purely on a payback basis. The same land in Scotland would be less than £5k per acre. So your £100k in land could suffer a deflation not dissimilar to houses. The land prices were fuelled by farmers who had sold to developers for £m's and had something like 18 months to reinvest back in to land to get the tax break . That is now gone. The most expensive land in NI was in South Armagh and it was related to the oil industry. Both are in decline. the point i was making yesterday is that altho i believe the scenario for the next decade is a country crippled by debt quite possibly ending with inflation problems ie iceland or Argentina at the turn of the century. Dont forget in Iceland even tho the currency has suffered major devaluation house prices are still falling in nominal and real terms as interest rates have stayed high to shore up the currency. thats why i see a decade where it is lose lose for things bought with debt. IF I start to think I am wrong and this scenario comes sooner and we get a "dash for hard assets" then .I would probably look to agricultural land. From my studies agriculture is slowly coming out of the bottom of the long cycles it tends to have. I know taper relief has gone etc which fuelled a boom in land but even yet with everything that has gone on has ag land took the same hit as property ??!! im not so sure it has. in a tin foil hat scenario i dont think some ag land in scotland would necessarily be a bad idea im not saying there wouldnt be hundreds of better ideas to preserve wealth eg gold (not a gold bug by the way im 5% in gold as a hedge along with other PMs) but I would rather be in it than flats or cash obviously. Reference Strangford Lough I am sure your right , Fermanagh is a personal choice down to my partners family being from there and feeling it would be better to bring up kids when they are of school age. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archy Posted December 18, 2009 Share Posted December 18, 2009 each to his own but the leccy it was producing and the double rocs he was receiving was bringing him in slightly over £100 /day just slightly better then than a btl! the sad part the new turbine was made in germany the old one was made in cowlrain in a foundry which is now a supermarket car park! progress? rock on! I totally agree with the micro hydro idea. I am currently working on a number of projects, mainly the glens of antrim, which utilise micro hydro. The 2 ROCs for 50kw schemes is likely going to change to 4 ROCs next year and be increased to allow higher powered turbines. However, I feel I should correct your 'progress' comment. Northern Ireland has good sustainable energy companys with the likes of B9 energy & RES leading the field in tidal and wind energy and NHT engineering, see below link, a northern irish hydro company which are producing good micro turbines. http://www.newmillshydro.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted December 18, 2009 Share Posted December 18, 2009 I totally agree with the micro hydro idea. I am currently working on a number of projects, mainly the glens of antrim, which utilise micro hydro. The 2 ROCs for 50kw schemes is likely going to change to 4 ROCs next year and be increased to allow higher powered turbines. However, I feel I should correct your 'progress' comment. Northern Ireland has good sustainable energy companys with the likes of B9 energy & RES leading the field in tidal and wind energy and NHT engineering, see below link, a northern irish hydro company which are producing good micro turbines. http://www.newmillshydro.com/ yep they produce some turbines but not crossflows which was the turbine of choice in the project i was referring too just curious as to your thoughts on the new archimedian screw fish friendly generators a la the river dart one? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cornwall/7586285.stm rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted December 28, 2009 Share Posted December 28, 2009 Nadeem Walayat's latest: The UK inflation forecast for 2010 is first of a three part series of in depth analysis as part of the inflation mega-trend, with UK interest rates and GDP growth forecast to follow in the coming week The adjusted retail sales data clearly shows that UK retail sales act as a leading indicator of economic activity and inflationary pressures of as long as 6 months. Retail sales led the price deflation into mid 2009, and now are again acting as a leading indicator for forward inflation and resurgent economic activity during the first half of 2010. The trend is extremely strong and continues to confirm the analysis of June 2009 that stated that Britain had embarked upon a debt fuelled economic recovery into a May 2010 General Election. In conclusion the headline UK unemployment rate of 2.49 million is just a stone throw away from the 2.6 million target which suggests little upside momentum left in the unemployment data and therefore indicative of an imminent peak and decline unemployment statistics to be announced during Q1 2010, which therefore confirms my view of a much stronger than expected economic recovery and therefore has much higher inflationary implications as well as political implications of improving Labours election prospects. My on going research suggests that the debt fuelled economic recovery is expected to continue into mid 2010 that could see house prices up by as much as 10% year on year and therefore contrary to the widespread view of flat house prices during 2010, however this warrants in depth analysis to formulate a higher probability forecast which I aim to complete during January 2010. Conclusion and UK CPI Inflation Forecast 2010The sum of the above and recent analysis is for UK inflation to spike higher in the coming months during early 2010. This is inline with my view that the Labour government has succeeded in sparking a strong debt fuelled economic recovery that will become clearly visible during the first quarter of 2010. I expect UK inflation as measured by CPI to break above the Bank of England's upper CPI target of 3% very early in the year, and stay above 3% for most of the year only coming back below 3% late 2010 as a consequence of the next governments attempts to bring the unsustainable budget deficit under control. I have commented before on the effect of weak sterling propping up UK HP's to an extent; whether we in NI follow the trend in GB remains to be seen. However, inho, i think 2010 will be a 'sticky' year regarding House Prices. Unless we get a big deflationary scare like lehmans again it is hard to see other alternatives at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 this one might interest you pp http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1241872/EXCLUSIVE-Inside-Chinas-secret-toxic-unobtainium-mine.html rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 10, 2010 Share Posted January 10, 2010 this one might interest you pp http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1241872/EXCLUSIVE-Inside-Chinas-secret-toxic-unobtainium-mine.html rock on! thanks r&r there has been a few threads on gei concerning the 'rare earths' http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?act=Search&CODE=show&searchid=b49ffc172ea6afc4af0713a61eb3df31&search_in=titles&result_type=topics&highlite=%2Brare+earth as far as i can see, china has been buying up pretty much all of the periodic table! the demand for industrial metals last year (esp. copper) continues this year with price-fixing iron-ore supplies, whilst the investment demand for gold and silver continues which is a similar story to the platinum group metals, this bit caught my eye in particular; Clearly it is not an exact science as to how much platinum goes to one use or another. However, jewellery manufacturing is going to be the major platinum user in China. Primarily this is because the Chinese automotive industry tends to make gasoline-powered cars, and so the split between platinum (normally found in diesel-engine autocatalysts) and palladium is heavily in favour of the cheaper metal. but i would add a mild-correction in palladium is probably overdue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 thanks r&r there has been a few threads on gei concerning the 'rare earths' http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?act=Search&CODE=show&searchid=b49ffc172ea6afc4af0713a61eb3df31&search_in=titles&result_type=topics&highlite=%2Brare+earth as far as i can see, china has been buying up pretty much all of the periodic table! the demand for industrial metals last year (esp. copper) continues this year with price-fixing iron-ore supplies, whilst the investment demand for gold and silver continues which is a similar story to the platinum group metals, this bit caught my eye in particular; but i would add a mild-correction in palladium is probably overdue not only have they been buying up the commodities they have bought the harbours and railways that ship them just to be sure to be sure to be sure! this place i like they know what real money is http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/ranchers-family-pays-cattle-ransom-2009518.html bullocks rule! rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 not only have they been buying up the commodities they have bought the harbours and railways that ship them just to be sure to be sure to be sure! this place i like they know what real money is http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/ranchers-family-pays-cattle-ransom-2009518.html bullocks rule! rock on! a bit hard to carry around in your wallet though just out of curiosity, say i had 10 acres of good north Antrim pasture land, what sort of rent could i get from my local livestock farmer? (very generalised question - sorry) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 a bit hard to carry around in your wallet though just out of curiosity, say i had 10 acres of good north Antrim pasture land, what sort of rent could i get from my local livestock farmer? (very generalised question - sorry) generalised answer 1- 1.5k just slightly better yield than the shiny stuff but then are you buying it or the shiny stuff for the yield? rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 generalised answer 1- 1.5k just slightly better yield than the shiny stuff but then are you buying it or the shiny stuff for the yield? rock on! thanks - same goes for letting it as arable land i presume? (real thicko towny here) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted January 12, 2010 Share Posted January 12, 2010 thanks - same goes for letting it as arable land i presume? (real thicko towny here) yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 http://www.smh.com.au/business/chinas-appetite-for-ore-soars-20100118-mgra.html?feed=html china still wants the ore Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R + R Posted January 31, 2010 Share Posted January 31, 2010 http://gregpytel.blogspot.com/2010/01/davis-2010-cunning-plan-how-we-will-all.html inflation is a nasty little scam for savers but giving you worthless bank shares for your hard earned is a whole new ball game! but surely even if this is just a mere rumor it has the potential to cause bank runs on a massive scale would you rather have bank shares only useful as toilet paper or a lumpy mattress? rock on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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