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mcoupland

Half Price By 2012 (any Sooner?)

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The last time I posted on here was in 2005. I stated then (as most others did) was that it was all about cheap credit and speculation. I bought a house in 2006 which is about a home rather than an 'investment' (borrowing 1*joint income for 280k). My prediction as of 3 months ago is that prices will halve from peak (2007) to bottom by the Olympics in 2012. This time might be different from previous crashes as information is so freely available - like sold prices, searching on the internet for reduced prices etc. All this means that is might be much quicker to reach bottom - maybe 3 years. Whenever it is, I will be buying a much bigger house (600-750k). I am enjoying so much the 'investment experts' and estate agents and all other such vested interest muppets learning the how ruthless a market can be.

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The last time I posted on here was in 2005. I stated then (as most others did) was that it was all about cheap credit and speculation. I bought a house in 2006 which is about a home rather than an 'investment' (borrowing 1*joint income for 280k). My prediction as of 3 months ago is that prices will halve from peak (2007) to bottom by the Olympics in 2012. This time might be different from previous crashes as information is so freely available - like sold prices, searching on the internet for reduced prices etc. All this means that is might be much quicker to reach bottom - maybe 3 years. Whenever it is, I will be buying a much bigger house (600-750k). I am enjoying so much the 'investment experts' and estate agents and all other such vested interest muppets learning the how ruthless a market can be.

Sorry but think the market will hit the bottom by 2010 and be on the way back up by 2012???????... But what do i know!!!!

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There might be a bull trap bounce around 2012 with the VIs hysterically over hyping the market and using all the euphoria of the olympics for a few months but it's not very likely it will have bottomed by then. It will only delay the bottom.

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down fast. pushed down by the freeze on credit card credit. (referred to hereafter as 'the credit freeze').

this comes after the crunch phase ends. circa october 08.

houses will be a non issue.

they will drop. eye wateringly low, but no mere man will be able to raise much of a mortgage, so houses sold by the ultra desperate will be going for cash sums. rapidly deflating cash sums. paid by people less in dire straits than the out of work sellers.

yes my pretties. this is going to be one hell of a downturn.

something to tell your grandkids about.

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down fast. pushed down by the freeze on credit card credit. (referred to hereafter as 'the credit freeze').

this comes after the crunch phase ends. circa october 08.

houses will be a non issue.

they will drop. eye wateringly low, but no mere man will be able to raise much of a mortgage, so houses sold by the ultra desperate will be going for cash sums. rapidly deflating cash sums. paid by people less in dire straits than the out of work sellers.

yes my pretties. this is going to be one hell of a downturn.

something to tell your grandkids about.

wishful thinking Fred

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Sorry but think the market will hit the bottom by 2010 and be on the way back up by 2012???????... But what do i know!!!!

I think you are both right depending on whether you are referring to nominal or real prices.

Nominal prices will probably bottom by the end of 2010, but then will be nominally static as inflation continues to erode the real value into 2012.

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I have just had an offer accepted(serious personal reasons don't lynch me!) 220 askin gprice 299950.I am in the south east popular road bigger house than i had ever hoped for tbh and estate agent said offer was fair and told seller to take it after ibitial reluctance.Last 2 houses sold there for 300 and 310 i think in november 07 so thats 27% off in 8 months so half price by 2010 doesn't look impossible!

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IMO this crash will be front loaded. It could last 7-10 years* but most of the damage will occur in the first 2 or 3 years beginning with this year where I expect to see a drop of at least 20% from the peak by December 31st. The optimistic VI report from NW suggets we are already down 8-9% with July-December numbers still to come in and the market is worsening each month.

__________________

*Unless we are in a "structural collapse" as opposed to the normal boom-bust cycle. If the former, the consequences could be generational.

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Guest KingCharles1st

Personally I see a "front loaded crash as per RB, but I then see a terrible cold wasteland where nobody is going to buy a house, nobody can afford to buy a house no matter how cheap, nobody is getting massive wage increases, and so on.

I think this could last for 5-6 years, but without a dot.com boom, or a communications boom - home- business computing/mobile phones/cable t.v. to drag us out like last time, I find it difficult to see where the impetus is going to come from to rebuild the shattered UK manufacturing and white van base.

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Personally I see a "front loaded crash as per RB, but I then see a terrible cold wasteland where nobody is going to buy a house, nobody can afford to buy a house no matter how cheap, nobody is getting massive wage increases, and so on.

I think this could last for 5-6 years, but without a dot.com boom, or a communications boom - home- business computing/mobile phones/cable t.v. to drag us out like last time, I find it difficult to see where the impetus is going to come from to rebuild the shattered UK manufacturing and white van base.

If house prices lost 50%. I would be straight in there and so would many others. There is a level, which is affordability and when this is reached life will get back to normal

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Guest Winnie
Personally I see a "front loaded crash as per RB, but I then see a terrible cold wasteland where nobody is going to buy a house, nobody can afford to buy a house no matter how cheap, nobody is getting massive wage increases, and so on.

I think this could last for 5-6 years, but without a dot.com boom, or a communications boom - home- business computing/mobile phones/cable t.v. to drag us out like last time, I find it difficult to see where the impetus is going to come from to rebuild the shattered UK manufacturing and white van base.

I agree with the cold wasteland vision - and my concern, often repeated here is that white van man and co will join their out of work knife wielding bruvvas and turn to crime (if they have not already). Time to bring back national service.

The crash timeframe depends on so many variables ahead - but one thing is for sure. No recovery before 2012 at the earliest and prices 50% off at bottom.

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Guest Winnie
If house prices lost 50%. I would be straight in there and so would many others. There is a level, which is affordability and when this is reached life will get back to normal

Cash buyers, yes - but if you are a cash buyer or speculator you will find you are in a minority so small that it will not sway the market. Most BTL landlords will be bankrupted by this crash unless they got out last year. That is a small number. If you have cash from other sorces you are known as the high net worth folk - 0.1% of the nation.

Also, how safe is your job, if you have one? Unemployment is going to be the key factor here.

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Cash buyers, yes - but if you are a cash buyer or speculator you will find you are in a minority so small that it will not sway the market. Most BTL landlords will be bankrupted by this crash unless they got out last year. That is a small number. If you have cash from other sorces you are known as the high net worth folk - 0.1% of the nation.

Also, how safe is your job, if you have one? Unemployment is going to be the key factor here.

If house prices dropped by 50% the invester would be back in on buy to let as the maths would add up. first time buyers would be buying as mortgages are still available and again the maths would add up. All this would see prices start to rise allowing the rest of the investers waiting in the wings to jump back on board and off we go again but hopefully at a steady rate which should be governed by only allowing three and a half times wages and a deposit.

When the price is right you will be surprised where people find deposits.

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If house prices dropped by 50% the invester would be back in on buy to let as the maths would add up. first time buyers would be buying as mortgages are still available and again the maths would add up. All this would see prices start to rise allowing the rest of the investers waiting in the wings to jump back on board and off we go again but hopefully at a steady rate which should be governed by only allowing three and a half times wages and a deposit.

When the price is right you will be surprised where people find deposits.

As prices dropped, the CDOS the banks bought to earn risk free money will also devalue, resulting in further right downs to capital balances, meaning loans will become more difficult, and LTVs will need to be even bigger than they are today.

lending ALWAYS gets harder in a recession. It ALWAYS gets easier in a boom.

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Guest KingCharles1st

Who are these investors?

Are they the same greying 60+ brigade that bought the ramped BTL dream last time- because if they were- they are all 75+ now, and probably thinking about other things than investing and risk.

Many of the investors who bought their way into the aftermath of the last boom were recently retired businessmen, maybe there aren't so many of them out there these days- maybe there are, an interesting point for discussion..

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If house prices dropped by 50% the invester would be back in on buy to let as the maths would add up. first time buyers would be buying as mortgages are still available and again the maths would add up. All this would see prices start to rise allowing the rest of the investers waiting in the wings to jump back on board and off we go again but hopefully at a steady rate which should be governed by only allowing three and a half times wages and a deposit.

When the price is right you will be surprised where people find deposits.

Now I noticed this house http://www.eigroup.co.uk/auctioneers/templ...=1&l=509589 with a guide price of 55K.

This house sold in 2003 for 53K , but then the lunacy took hold and the houses on that street were going for over 100K in 2006. This is just a standard small first time buyer house up north and these rent for around 400quid a month. Your return on a 55K investment after insurance, maintenance, voids, unpaid rent etc is not going to be much more, if anything at all, more than putting it a savings account.

I'd say small houses like this are around 50% down already if you needed to sell in a hurry.

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Guest Steve Cook
down fast. pushed down by the freeze on credit card credit. (referred to hereafter as 'the credit freeze').

this comes after the crunch phase ends. circa october 08.

houses will be a non issue.

they will drop. eye wateringly low, but no mere man will be able to raise much of a mortgage, so houses sold by the ultra desperate will be going for cash sums. rapidly deflating cash sums. paid by people less in dire straits than the out of work sellers.

yes my pretties. this is going to be one hell of a downturn.

something to tell your grandkids about.

yes

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turn to crime

cops carrying guns will fix this.....

in 2002 thai police shott about 5000 people who where dealing in ampetamines avoiding arrest until the western world gets tough the rot will continue

Edited by kiwi

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Guest Steve Cook
If house prices lost 50%. I would be straight in there and so would many others. There is a level, which is affordability and when this is reached life will get back to normal

If house prices drop by at least 50%, it will be on the back of a wholesale collapse of our economies. At which point, house prices will be the least of our worries.

House prices will drop by at least 50% in real terms, whatever the nominal numbers might say

Edited by Steve Cook

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If house prices drop by at least 50%, it will be on the back of a wholesale collapse of our economies. At which point, house prices will be the least of our worries.

House prices will drop by at least 50% in real terms, whatever the nominal numbers might say

why do you think this?

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2012 Isn't the year the world comes to an end? Just my luck I get my cheap house at last and the four horseman of the apocalyse come riding past it, and burn it up. Great, but at leaste I will be able to go out and shovel the menure for the old alotment

Edited houseman who have now qualified to horsemen

Edited by wheresmyfoxhole

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Who are these investors?

Are they the same greying 60+ brigade that bought the ramped BTL dream last time- because if they were- they are all 75+ now, and probably thinking about other things than investing and risk.

Many of the investors who bought their way into the aftermath of the last boom were recently retired businessmen, maybe there aren't so many of them out there these days- maybe there are, an interesting point for discussion..

It's all about when the time is right to make money. When that leval is reached that will be the bottom.

My parents have a house converted into two flats. They had them valued only a month ago for £140,000. To me because estate agents have no idea i would say the selling price is around £100,000 but we have to go by the £140,000 valuation because that is the price that people have them for sale at. If you half that valuation to £70,000 for the pair i would and so would anyone else who is looking for investment, pounce.

The rents for both flats is £740 a month that gives you a 12.5% yield on £70,000 which anyone who knows anything about property investment would know this is very good. You would also know at this level that prices wont fall much further, but that wouldn't matter because its' just the same as shares. if you are lucky enough to buy shares that give you the same return on dividend, it doesn't matter that the price fluctuates as long as you are getting the right yield. Then you only sell when the price is right unless you are unlucky to have to sell when they are low.

People have got into trouble because they bought far too high hopeing to make money on the valuation riseing only. Very dangerous as we all know.

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2012 Isn't the year the world comes to an end? Just my luck I get my cheap house at last and the four houseman of the apocalyse come riding past it, and burn it up. Great, but at least I will be able to go out and shovel the menure for the old alotmentn

Make sure you buy a big place with equestrian facilities and they might be tempted to put off their world economic tour. I wonder if they would make good tenants, you could charge around £80pw tax free?

Don't worry about it, rumour in the underworld is that the Grim Reaper has been forced to swap his scythe for safety scissors after new Health & Safety rules were introduced.

VMR.

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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