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Guest Shedfish

Keeping Your Powder Dry, Or Are You Tempted

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Guest Shedfish

it would be interesting to gauge sentiment, after the events of the last year or so.

for me, the search is definitely off. i have a look on Rightmove every couple of weeks, for a laugh, but won't consider buying for at least another 2 years, unless something truly realistically priced comes along.. and by that i mean 2002 prices or before

Edited by Shedfish

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Rental agreement comes up for renewel in March. I'm planning on having a cursory look in at the EAs in October to have a chat with them while looking them straight in the eye;

"do you have any suitable properties that have REALLY motivated sellers that accept that the market will continue to fall for at least 2 years and have set their price expectations accordingly?"

However, I suspect I'll end up just signing another 2 year rental deal after negotiating the price down further.

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Guest Shedfish
(I thought it was relevant here. But if the thread-started thinks it is just "shameless promotion", I will delete it.

all bumps gratefully received :rolleyes:

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it would be interesting to gauge sentiment, after the events of the last year or so.

for me, the search is definitely off. i have a look on Rightmove every couple of weeks, for a laugh, but won't consider buying for at least another 2 years, unless something truly realistically priced comes along.. and by that i mean 2002 prices or before

Could you put in an option for those who are not looking, and won't for 5 years or ever?

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it would be interesting to gauge sentiment, after the events of the last year or so.

for me, the search is definitely off. i have a look on Rightmove every couple of weeks, for a laugh, but won't consider buying for at least another 2 years, unless something truly realistically priced comes along.. and by that i mean 2002 prices or before

I look on RM every week. Although some prices have fallen, most properties are stuck at the same prices they went on for over a year ago. Sure, you could easily pick up most of these at a 10% discount, but why bother when they are 40% overvalued.

Read the article on the FT (I think, yesterday) that showed all the HPCs in the UK from 1945. There were 5 of them, and the average duration was five and a half years peak to trough. So, looks like Oct. 2007 was the peak, and Spring 2013 will be the bottom.

One thing I do find on RM is that there's tons of stuff for rent. And the rents are starting to get kicked hard. That means another 5 years - at least - of renting for me. As it's the flexible, cheap easy option. :)

Nomadd

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We're not all renting on here, you know.

I'll be 50 in two years time, and the mortgage will be paid off on our humble 3-bed semi. Our decision will be whether to upgrade to a nicer house with a bigger garden when the trough has been reached and the funding gap is at its smallest...

... or whether to live out our days rent and mortgage free!

Cheers

Mr Smug. ;)

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Guest Shedfish
Could you put in an option for those who are not looking, and won't for 5 years or ever?

that's done!

(i didn't include dates after 2012 as a friend of mine reliably informs me that the Mayan long-count calendar expires, and ephemera such as houses, laminate flooring and gazebos will not be top of the list)

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We're not all renting on here, you know.

I'll be 50 in two years time, and the mortgage will be paid off on our humble 3-bed semi. Our decision will be whether to upgrade to a nicer house with a bigger garden when the trough has been reached and the funding gap is at its smallest...

... or whether to live out our days rent and mortgage free!

Cheers

Mr Smug. ;)

We're in a similar situation although we don't have anything paid off :( hoping to tread water until 2011 when our fixed rate comes to an end and then I shalln't car how much we loose on this house the "real family home" currently £450k should be £300k by then and we shall live happily ever after.

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To be honest, I am indifferent between renting and buying. Its just a matter of what makes sense financially.

At present, I rent a house in Oxfordshire and the LL is very happy to keep the arrangment going. My rent has not gone up in three years and I am as happy as my LL is.

If a house came up with the same attractive features with an all in capital cost that allowed me to offset my rent at an implied rental yield of 5% I would probably buy but that is a long way off yet. At present I am paying a net rental yield of 3% and so the value of houses has to fall 40% to get me to the buying decision.

Edited by Wad

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We're not all renting on here, you know.

I'll be 50 in two years time, and the mortgage will be paid off on our humble 3-bed semi. Our decision will be whether to upgrade to a nicer house with a bigger garden when the trough has been reached and the funding gap is at its smallest...

... or whether to live out our days rent and mortgage free!

Cheers

Mr Smug. ;)

Well, I am renting, but I've got the cash for a nice 4-5 bed detached sat in the bank. Now, the question simply is: leave it where it is earning £35k (pre-tax) in interest per annum, or buy a house with it and watch it depreciate at £60k+ per annum. No-brainer, really.

Yours,

Mr Smug II :)

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Shedfish, great use of mulitple poll option! The answer is waiting and (trying) saving until 2011.

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I remember in the nineties that when houses were at the bottom of the trough, the market stagnated - there was not much about except on the margins. I don't fancy renting for the long term, so judging buying at the right point on the way down is a bit tricky.

I think it's got a fair way to go yet though, this brick has only jest been let go and it's a long bit of elastic!

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DrBubb,

I think a regular 6 month interview with as-close-to-an-honest-ea-as-you-can-get should be interesting and I like the "£300/sq ft" rule.

I'll definitely tune in.

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that's done!

(i didn't include dates after 2012 as a friend of mine reliably informs me that the Mayan long-count calendar expires, and ephemera such as houses, laminate flooring and gazebos will not be top of the list)

Good idea, when the moon descends from the sky and opens its great fleshy maw to devour us all, issues such as housing greed will not matter, as the Great One unfies us all within her holy belly. :ph34r:

I'm not one of those nutjobs who believe in aliens swarming out of the Mayan pyramids come 2012, those people are silly and have watched too much Indiana Jones!

Or, if the world is a lot more boring come 2013, I guess I'll shrug my shoulders and go for a 3-bed flat somewhere in Norfolk. I want to hold off of buying for as long as possible, I think it's gonna be a long and slow ride.

Edited by DementedTuna

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For me, the choice is whether to buy using a sensible 3.5x salary mortgage (which would just about be possible at the moment now the small falls have started) or waiting while prices drop and the deposit increases, to the point where I can buy for cash. It's very tempting to do the latter, as it will mean I'm set up for life, but realistically, I realise prices may not fall this much and of course I have to keep my job. Hence the importance of watching the market and timing it. It's interesting but exhausting!

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Guest Shedfish
Good idea, when the moon descends from the sky and opens its great fleshy maw to devour us all, issues such as housing greed will not matter, as the Great One unfies us all within her holy belly. :ph34r:

I'm not one of those nutjobs who believe in aliens swarming out of the Mayan pyramids come 2012, those people are silly and have watched too much Indiana Jones!

:lol: too much Van Daniken too

but i decided better be on the safe side and not anger Chac-Mool with my poll

Or, if the world is a lot more boring come 2013, I guess I'll shrug my shoulders and go for a 3-bed flat somewhere in Norfolk. I want to hold off of buying for as long as possible, I think it's gonna be a long and slow ride.

there's always the chance this one will be quite fast and brutal, if the lending figures are anything to go by...

but this is mitigated by the speed of capitulation / acceptance.

interesting times

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On the first point, I have a website, called GlobalEdgeInvestors dotcom (GEI), It is a popular website, styled as a chatboard, with over 1,350 members. Most of them are located in the UK and have an interest in property.

Qutite the most blatent advertising I've yet seen from Bubb.

From the forum rules

No business offers or advertising of any kind.

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Only thing that could make me buy now is fear that the money's not safe in the banks.

Looking around, I see only a very small minority of vendors have started to cut prices. The rest are living in hope of a return to halcyon days. Probably whilst they're waiting and their For Sale board starts to sprout, their estate agent who they never hear from, has actually become a 98p Shop.

I have no idea when those vendors will finally twig.

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Only thing that could make me buy now is fear that the money's not safe in the banks.

Looking around, I see only a very small minority of vendors have started to cut prices. The rest are living in hope of a return to halcyon days. Probably whilst they're waiting and their For Sale board starts to sprout, their estate agent who they never hear from, has actually become a 98p Shop.

I have no idea when those vendors will finally twig.

Around me they are slowly, slowly beginning to twig. 5K, 10K, 15K drops - you can almost hear how painful the realisation is. Like a man having a tooth extracted by one millimetre each week.

But twigging is happening, and things are heading slowly down, down, down.

Patience is all we need.

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We're not all renting on here, you know.

I'll be 50 in two years time, and the mortgage will be paid off on our humble 3-bed semi. Our decision will be whether to upgrade to a nicer house with a bigger garden when the trough has been reached and the funding gap is at its smallest...

agreed. we have little mortgage and a little house - no plans to move - perhaps the OP could add a column for those who have a house and then may try to "move up the property ladder"?

(in our case, never. :) )

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Even if price fall so that buying and renting costs the same then will people buy in a few years time after they have been unemployed at some stage whilst waiting for hte bottom of the market.

It's easyer to get the goverment to cover the rent than it is to cover interest payments.

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No rush for me, although the sharper the falls, the sooner we'll reach the bottom. I need a new job some time in 2009, and when I get that and work out where it is commutable from,

I might start taking a look around and making some "stupidly low" (ie very generous) offers. Plan A is still second half of 2010 or even later though, but it would save on moving twice, and so on.

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I'm waiting and saving! :P

Current reckoning is probably more like 2010, but it depends on how quickly prices drop, and when one comes on the market that is the right one...

I'm realising that our deposit as a percentage of the same house for sale is increasing just because of the drop in prices, so even if we don't save anymore, our deposit is still "growing" as a proportion of house cost... (if that makes sense)

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imo it will be 5 years before prices start going up again. before then it doesnt make sense to buy if renting the same is chaper

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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