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Pakard

Halifax: British House Prices Slump By 10%

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Latest figures will reveal the average property is now worth £180,000. Last year the same home would have sold for £199,600

The housing market is falling at more than 10 per cent year on year, the most dramatic collapse in the sector's recorded history, the Halifax mortgage bank will reveal this week.

Even in the 1990s, Britain did not face double-digit annual falls in house values. The figures will show the cost of the average UK purchase fell below £180,000 in July, returning prices to mid-2006 levels. That compares with a peak of £199,600 last August.

In June, Halifax forecast house prices would fall by up to 9 per cent this year but its figures will show the annual rate already exceeds that. However, when the bank's parent, HBOS, last week revealed profits hit by provisions against falling property values it admitted the consensus is for prices to fall 15 to 20 per cent during 2008 and 2009.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...-10-883632.html

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Edited by Pakard

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Latest figures will reveal the average property is now worth £180,000. Last year the same home would have sold for £199,600

The housing market is falling at more than 10 per cent year on year, the most dramatic collapse in the sector's recorded history, the Halifax mortgage bank will reveal this week.

Even in the 1990s, Britain did not face double-digit annual falls in house values. The figures will show the cost of the average UK purchase fell below £180,000 in July, returning prices to mid-2006 levels. That compares with a peak of £199,600 last August.

In June, Halifax forecast house prices would fall by up to 9 per cent this year but its figures will show the annual rate already exceeds that. However, when the bank's parent, HBOS, last week revealed profits hit by provisions against falling property values it admitted the consensus is for prices to fall 15 to 20 per cent during 2008 and 2009.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...-10-883632.html

Link updated

it couldnt have been any other way according to newtons laws. ying and yang. whizzer and chips.

every stupid boom has to have a stupidly matching bust.

and this was one heck of a super boom.

after all, you cant magic up money from thin air.

someones going to have to work this debt off one way or another.

for every 20k casually made by a disappointed developer, is over 1 years graft for a northerner.

it HAS TO BE paid back. in sweat, inflation of commodities or deflation of the £

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it couldnt have been any other way according to newtons laws. ying and yang. whizzer and chips.

every stupid boom has to have a stupidly matching bust.

and this was one heck of a super boom.

after all, you cant magic up money from thin air.

someones going to have to work this debt off one way or another.

for every 20k casually made by a disappointed developer, is over 1 years graft for a northerner.

it HAS TO BE paid back. in sweat, inflation of commodities or deflation of the £

erm more than a year, you need to include tax on earning and interest on the mortgage.

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Guest KingCharles1st
It's different this time

I'm sorry- they are referring to a parallel universe..?

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Slump? its more like being in the queue at the barbers contemplating your haircut.

Id like a trim, but maybe Mr Todd the barber has other ideas.

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The muted reporting of the Nationwide figures was because the falls are getting repetitive.

The big round numbers will get the attention now. 10% is a good one.

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It's a good article. It actually goes into the 3 month smoothing calculation!

It now calculates its headline rate by comparing quarterly figures with the same three-month period a year earlier rather than comparing month with month. It claims this method smooths out short-term fluctuations but it has consistently underestimated the rate of fall.

Halifax claimed the annual fall in June was 6.1 per cent, for instance, when house prices were actually 8.9 per cent below June 2007's level. July's headline rate will be suppressed by using the quarterly calculations but the actual fall will exceed 10 per cent for the first time.

I doubt many other newspapers will. There won't be huge 10% headlines.

I wonder if the Halifax will change their method to single month comparisons just as the market finally turns up?

Edited by mirage

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The article has a swipe at the way Halifax quote the quarterly figure rather than the drop from the same month in the previous year.

This must be the first time I've ever read an opinion in the Independent that I agree with.

[edit; Mirage got there first]

Edited by Paddles

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for every 20k casually made by a disappointed developer, is over 1 years graft for a northerner.

it HAS TO BE paid back. in sweat, inflation of commodities or deflation of the £

For a northerner? Every northerner I know is a (was a) crowing, smug btl er!

I have my eye on two in particular round here and have already popped the cork on a bottle of Freixinet Gordon Negro (£4.99 Asda) at the downfall of one of the chippy Yorkshire spivs.

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For a northerner? Every northerner I know is a (was a) crowing, smug btl er!

I have my eye on two in particular round here and have already popped the cork on a bottle of Freixinet Gordon Negro (£4.99 Asda) at the downfall of one of the chippy Yorkshire spivs.

I think it's Cordon Negro. Gordon Brown doesn't make cava, but if he did it would probably be the worst cava in the world.....

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For a northerner? Every northerner I know is a (was a) crowing, smug btl er!

I have my eye on two in particular round here and have already popped the cork on a bottle of Freixinet Gordon Negro (£4.99 Asda) at the downfall of one of the chippy Yorkshire spivs.

Tha allus was a spendthrift, lad. In my day, a glass o'water from t'tap were considered sufficient to toast the downfall of a BTL landlord...

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Was peak July 07? (I've lost track with all the bear food recently)

If so, what is the from peak fall?

Can't wait to see little fatty Declan report on this when the figures are officially released.

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20% by christmas???

Possibly, 15% peak to trough by the end of the year is a virtual certainty, could be in the high teens at least.

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So are we still thinking that the media are underestimating the drop?

If so, and they're saying 15-20% by the end of 2009, what do we think is realistic? 30%? Or is sanity returning to the media and we're all converging on 15-20%?

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If so, and they're saying 15-20% by the end of 2009, what do we think is realistic? 30%? Or is sanity returning to the media and we're all converging on 15-20%?

The media will be underestimating falls until prices bottom out; and then they'll be predicting more falls while prices are rising. Well, ignoring the odd short-term bounce along the way down, anyway, when they'll be saying that prices have reached the bottom and started to rise again...

I can't see any reason for prices to bottom out until they've dropped at least 50%, unless the government do something really stupid (e.g. taxpayer backing of all future mortgages, no matter how risky). There's no good reason for anyone to buy now, and the banks know that, which is why they're not lending to anyone who doesn't have a sizable deposit to cover the price declines that are coming. Lots of sellers, few buyers == enormous price drops.

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My forward forecasts using HBOS 3-Month averaging.

MoM assumed at -2% per month for rest of 08

Month/YOY/From Peak (Aug07)

2008 Mar 1.62% -4.01%

2008 Apr -1.01% -5.46%

2008 May -3.88% -7.82%

2008 Jun -6.33% -9.65%

2008 Jul -8.77% -11.45% (this week)

2008 Aug -11.02% -13.23%

2008 Sep -12.93% -14.96%

2008 Oct -14.39% -16.66%

2008 Nov -15.38% -18.33%

2008 Dec -16.91% -19.96%

So this just a current extrapolation forecast.

If we assumed a gradually increasing rate of decline (0.025% /month), the figures will look like this ...

Month/YOY/From Peak (Aug07)

2008 Mar 1.62% -4.01%

2008 Apr -1.01% -5.46%

2008 May -3.88% -7.82%

2008 Jun -6.33% -9.65%

2008 Jul -8.77% -11.45% (this week, -2.00% MoM)

2008 Aug -11.10% -13.45% -2.25%

2008 Sep -13.22% -15.61% -2.50%

2008 Oct -15.11% -17.93% -2.75%

2008 Nov -16.73% -20.39% -3.00%

2008 Dec -19.06% -22.98% -3.25%

Enjoy

Edit : trying to make it line up better!

Edited by hogwash

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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