Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
gruffydd

£uk To Dive Say Currency Forecasters

Recommended Posts

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Extracts:

``The news you're getting about the British economy goes only in one direction,'' said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second- biggest lender. ``The economy is very weak and we don't see signs of a recovery. The pound is going to get weaker against the euro and the dollar.''

The faltering economy will weaken the pound to $1.90 and to 80 pence per euro by year-end, according to the median forecast of analysts and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The yield on the 10-year note will end the year at 4.89 percent, according to a separate survey.

Edited by gruffydd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Extracts:

``The news you're getting about the British economy goes only in one direction,'' said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second- biggest lender. ``The economy is very weak and we don't see signs of a recovery. The pound is going to get weaker against the euro and the dollar.''

I hardly think anyone is going to listen to some old Kraut who's obviously jealous of our miracle economy! ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

80p per euro !!!

that will do my euros account some good.

i wonder if its worth moving more into it.

the only way to avoid this is to substantially increase interest rates !!

Edited by right_freds_dead

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
80p per euro !!!

that will do my euros account some good.

i wonder if its worth moving more into it.

the only way to avoid this is to substantially increase interest rates !!

Raising interest rates will not help the UK pound also....not in the short term anyway. It would cause the UK to default on their debt I reckon. Remember the the UK has to pay interest on that 380% of debt to GDP growth. The damage has been done. Catch 22 with no pleasant solution. However, raising interest rates would be better in the longrun than the course they are going down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Raising interest rates will not help the UK pound also....not in the short term anyway. It would cause the UK to default on their debt I reckon. Remember the the UK has to pay interest on that 380% of debt to GDP growth. The damage has been done. Catch 22 with no pleasant solution. However, raising interest rates would be better in the longrun than the course they are going down.

Hyperinflationary depression and sovereign debt default will happen either way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The relevance of the pound deteriorating in value against the euro is only advantageous if you hold euros and want to move into a pound area. The price of petrol and food is increasing against all currencies so it´s of no significance really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Extracts:

``The news you're getting about the British economy goes only in one direction,'' said Lutz Karpowitz, a currency strategist in Frankfurt at Commerzbank AG, Germany's second- biggest lender. ``The economy is very weak and we don't see signs of a recovery. The pound is going to get weaker against the euro and the dollar.''

The faltering economy will weaken the pound to $1.90 and to 80 pence per euro by year-end, according to the median forecast of analysts and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. The yield on the 10-year note will end the year at 4.89 percent, according to a separate survey.

Sterling has proven to be resilient vs. the US $ because all of the bad news has happened there first. Our banks have not yet revealed their true losses and there is still a lot of denial going on at the top. Ben and Paulson have come clean about the state of things in the US.

The lag is around 12-18 months depending what segment of the market you are looking at. For house prices, it is probably closer to 18 months but for job losses I think we are going to be 3-6 months behind. We will eventually merge and that is when sterling will take a tumble vs. the $. IMO, it will hit around 1.80 by year end. IIRC the low this year so far was 1.94, so a drop to 1.90 by year end would hardly be newsworthy. Moving on into 2009 forward I can see sterling reverting to its long term average in the 1.60s. Higher IR here is all that is holding sterling up--the fundamentals all suck royally. When Merv is forced to cut in the face of deflation or a serious contraction in the economy the pound will be open season for sellers.

Will we be worse off than the US? I think so. Our bubble was that much bigger and our economy that much more dependent on financial "services."

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/currency/conve...;amt=1&t=3m

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Currency forecasters in stating the bleeding obvious shock.

What about Sterling vs Aussie dollar ? It has recovered this week. Is this a blip ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There will be no recession in the UK as our economy is fundamentally strong, I wish you people would get on message, it's no wonder house prices and sterling are on the brink of collapse with such negativity. :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hyperinflationary depression and sovereign debt default will happen either way.

Do you fancy a wager on the default part? Winnings go to charity of winner's choice? Let me know what odds you are thinking of.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
0.78755p per Euro at the moment so the prediction is that Sterling will 'crash' by 1% by the end of the year, have I missed something here?

You left out the interest rate differential, so the real decrease is even less than that :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's a mathematical certainty.

Cut the macho bullsh1t.

Given the financial 'advice' you've been giving on this forum, you're the last person I'd want as a counterparty.

What financial advice have I been giving you cretin? Let's put the money with a third party and get on with it. Time to put your money where your mouth is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Time to put your money where your mouth is.

I already have.

Spent most of the last year shorting financials, builders, retailers, nightclubs etc.

Now that the end game is almost here, I have exited the markets completely to avoid all counterparty default risk so that I may hold on to my gains.

I have ditched near enough all my financial assets in favour of tangibles, if you know what I mean ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Down to $1.90 is around a 4% fall from current levels. It'll help the CPI along nicely, but is hardly apocalyptic.

TAB, give Gruffy Boy a little time and he'll come up with an apocalyse for you! He's told us over the last two days that two high street banks are about to fall (according to 'rumours in the city' - I think he means Llanelli City :lol: ) and the currency will 'dive' (by an amazing 4%!)

Don't people 'in PR' talk a load of b0||0x.

p

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

About to fall? No, A&L had their profits wiped out and rumours abound about the financial hit that Barclays is going to report on Thursday.

Don't wormtongues who support ScumLabour speak worse than bo!!oX!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
About to fall? No, A&L had their profits wiped out and rumours abound about the financial hit that Barclays is going to report on Thursday.

Don't wormtongues who support ScumLabour speak worse than bo!!oX!

If you choose to produce headlines like this without producing an ounce of fact to back up your claims, then don't be surprised if people start questioning your purpose and accuracy.

Rumours Abound About Barclays' Exposure And Writedowns..., Analysts getting twitchy about Barclays
Alliance And Leicester Wiped Out By Credit Crunch, It's made a loss - OMG!!!!!!!!!
£uk To Dive Say Currency Forecasters

In any case, if 'rumours abound' then you're not telling the rest of us anything that isn't common knowledge. Unless, of course, you're trying to convince us (and, perhaps yourself) that you are in the priviledged and elevated position of being 'in' on something that the rest of us common herd are excluded from. Do you think this might be some sort of infection you caught during your time as an Estate Agent?

p

p.s. Did you speak in a very high voice when you shouted out "OMG!!!!!!!!!!" "OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you choose to produce headlines like this without producing an ounce of fact to back up your claims, then don't be surprised if people start questioning your purpose and accuracy.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle4449834.ece

Barclays is forecast to reveal a 35% drop in profits to £2.6 billion as bad debts around the world, particularly in South Africa, combine with further losses from its exposure to the credit markets.

Some analysts believe Barclays could chalk up another £3 billion of writedowns, in addition to the £1.7 billion it recorded in the first quarter.

hth

Edited by daiking

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.