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Joey Buttafueco Jr

U.s. Non Farm Way Better Than Expected

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No doubt this will be another conspiracy theory

Tax revenue is collapsing across the US. I'm afraid I think a lot of these statistics are going to revised downwards later on. For example 4Q 2007 GDP was revised down to negative yesterday.

Edited by JimmyMac

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No doubt this will be another conspiracy theory

Not really, but I'm not dumb enough to

1) Believe official gvt figures - for unemployment, CPI or anything else.

2) Interpret news that is 'better than expected' as being good news, given that it is still bad news.

On that basis, Wall Street will be rejoicing when economists tell them that they expected the US to be in a depression, but hey - look - it's only in a recession. Phew.

Schmucks.

Edited by RajD

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No doubt this will be another conspiracy theory

Can you really class not believing Government derived statistics as in the realms of conspiracy theorists?

Are you naive or deliberately obtuse?

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Are you naive or deliberately obtuse?

I think Noel is a bit of a pro who considers us a bunch of amateurs who "lucked out" by predicting the HPC and an economic downturn. I expect this was in contrast to his expectations at the time. I always detect a little bit of bitterness in his style.

Come on Noel.. what's your story? am I close?

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I think Noel is a bit of a pro who considers us a bunch of amateurs who "lucked out" by predicting the HPC and an economic downturn. I expect this was in contrast to his expectations at the time. I always detect a little bit of bitterness in his style.

Come on Noel.. what's your story? am I close?

unfortunately it has turned out that most of the Pros were totally useless and out of their depth :P

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I think Noel is a bit of a pro who considers us a bunch of amateurs who "lucked out" by predicting the HPC and an economic downturn. I expect this was in contrast to his expectations at the time. I always detect a little bit of bitterness in his style.

Come on Noel.. what's your story? am I close?

You are correct, except for the fact that I was submitting entries on my blog related to the upcoming downturn in Feb 2006, a year before you joined the site. I have been arguing on other forums about the downturn since last year (when I was very much in the minority)

So on balance, you are completely wrong.

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2) Interpret news that is 'better than expected' as being good news, given that it is still bad news.

Nail - hit - squarely - on head. Economists expectations are for the birds.

The BBC have actually picked this up with the correct headline:

"US unemployment at four-year high"

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7537463.stm

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Isn't there an adjustment made to the figures that is looking increasingly ludicrous (the birth-death adjustment)? For example this adjustment added 8000 jobs in banking, 45000 jobs to construction and 83000 jobs to leisure and hospitality in April 2008 alone. In that month alone, this particular adjustment increased jobs by 267k and job losses would have been reported as 287k rather than 20k.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200...tzer-prize.html

I don't know how this adjustment figures in this months stats. Some commentators have detailed how the banks are fiddling their earnings. The mood in the US is ugly right now, and quite divorced from the stats coming out. I suspect we are being lied to.

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Isn't there an adjustment made to the figures that is looking increasingly ludicrous (the birth-death adjustment)? For example this adjustment added 8000 jobs in banking, 45000 jobs to construction and 83000 jobs to leisure and hospitality in April 2008 alone. In that month alone, this particular adjustment increased jobs by 267k and job losses would have been reported as 287k rather than 20k.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200...tzer-prize.html

I don't know how this adjustment figures in this months stats. Some commentators have detailed how the banks are fiddling their earnings. The mood in the US is ugly right now, and quite divorced from the stats coming out. I suspect we are being lied to.

are you in the US?

I think you are right about the Birth-Death thing - there has certainly been much mention of it on other blogs. The GDP figures are fiddled by using absurdly low inflation figures (lower than CPI).

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/07/gd...arly-bogus.html

Edited by JimmyMac

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The GDP figures are fiddled by using absurdly low inflation figures (lower than CPI).

And with the use of government stimulus checks. A blatant effort to avoid being officially in a recession. For now...

Edited by RajD

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And with the use of government stimulus checks. A blatant effort to avoid being officially in a recession. For now...

yes, this seems to be the equivalent of borrowing GDP growth from the future. Notice how most "economists" applaud this insane policy.

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Some slightly more independent analsyts than the Government/BLS found a number around 175,000 would have been more accurate. The US job market is 12% government employed...and 80% service sector...Firms in the sector have been filing chapter 7 all week...Everyone knows these numbers are phoney...Its not a conspiracy it is just political expedience. Hiding the reality will not actually make the problems go away. This phoney "debt and consume" economic model the UK and the US have pursued is going to creat some very serious problems for years to come.

Excess Space Retail Services projects that the number of store dispositions it will handle this year could rise 30 percent above last year’s levels. Previously, the Huntington Beach, Calif.-based real estate disposition and lease restructuring firm had projected a 20 percent increase in its disposition portfolio for 2008. DJM also raised its disposition estimates for this year to a 50 percent increase over 2007 from 20 percent.

As the leasing environment is becoming even more challenging for landlords, Excess Space principal, Alvin Williams, points out that some retail sectors are still growing, including grocery chains and drug stores, which are benefiting from consumers’ unwavering need for food, prescriptions and other necessities. Discounters and big box operators are also seeing an uptick in business.

On the flip side, the slowdown is hitting apparel retailers hard. With 803 stores shutting down, apparel chains accounted for 38 percent of the total 2,122 closures during the first quarter. The home entertainment sector, with 649 closings, or 30.6 percent of the total, was next on the list. Non-classified retail (chains including Rent-A-Center, which specializes in rent-to-own furniture, electronics and appliances), ranked third with 293 closings, followed by jewelers, with 105. The rankings represent a change from 2007, when the home furnishings sector accounted for 26.7 percent of all closures, 1,228 in all for the sector. This year home furnishings have only accounted for 60 closings.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting Bennigan's, Steak & Ale Close, File for Bankruptcy Protection.

National restaurant chains Bennigan's and Steak & Ale have closed their doors and filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, shuttering more than 300 locations and letting go of thousands of employees.

It is one of the country's largest restaurant bankruptcies and eliminates two sit-down chains that have been part of the casual-dining landscape for decades. The chains will liquidate and aren't likely to re-open.

Late Monday, managers at Bennigan's and Steak & Ale were told not to open restaurants the next day, according to two people familiar with the matter. Employees were told there wouldn't be enough money to pay ... Rest By Subscription

Independent Franchise Locations Remain Open

CBS News is reporting Bennigan's Restaurants Shut Down Nationwide.

Customers showing up for lunch at Bennigan's restaurants in Chicago and across the country found quite a surprise Tuesday morning, when all the corporate-owned locations had signs on display reading "closed for business."

As CBS 2's Joanie Lum reports, Bennigan's Grill and Tavern closed all of its corporate-owned locations nationwide after filing for bankruptcy. Independent franchises remain open for business as usual.

The corporate-owned locations comprise about half the entire chain.

Bennigan's spokeswoman Leah Templeton said Bennigan's and Steak & Ale restaurants – both of which are owned by Plano, Texas-based Metromedia Restaurant Group – have filed for bankruptcy, along with the holding company S&A Restaurant Corp.

Chapter 7 filing usually means a company has "major league debt," and it is unlikely that employees would get their last paycheck. He said someone could conceivably buy the assets and reopen the full Bennigan's chain, but that would only be after a long, drawn out court process.

The bankruptcy filing does not affect other two restaurant chains owned by Metromedia, Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouse, Templeton said in the statement.

Alphonso Prince, manager of the Bennigan's at 1250 Torrence Ave. in Calumet City, said he was notified of the shutdown at 12:10 a.m. from his area director, who was crying on the telephone. He said there was no forewarning about the shutdown.

"I'm angry," Prince said. "I'm hurt; I'm devastated."

"No blast of e-mails, nothing to say, 'Sorry, we just can't do it anymore,'" Prince continued, "just a phone call from my area director who doesn't know anything, because she just found out. She'd been with the company for 21 years."

No Warning

Here's the deal. People cannot afford to eat out, Bennigan's could not raise prices (if it could have it would have) nor could it lower them to attract business because its debt load was too high. Simply put, Bennigan's was overleveraged with enormous debt and no way to pay it back.

Bankruptcy is going to be the final resting place for many restaurants, small corporations, and even entire malls in the same predicament. Yes, this is deflation at work.

The Shopping Center Economic Model Is History. Expect to see more stories like Macon Mall Faces Foreclosure.

Clearly the problem has spread to restaurants so expect to see more restaurants close without warning. Also, it's very important to remember that it was primarily service jobs that kept this economy running. The service sector is now at long last starting to crumble. Unemployment is poised to soar.

Edited by VedantaTrader

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Seems bad according to the government, I think we are discussing unemployment and employment,

Hence the title "EMPLOYMENT SITUATION"

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JULY 2008

The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent, and nonfarm payroll employment

continued to trend down in July (-51,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of

the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in

construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries, while

health care and mining continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by

6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

Both the number of unemployed persons (8.8 million) and the unemployment rate

(5.7 percent) rose in July. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed

persons has increased by 1.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.0

percentage point. (See table A-1.)

Total nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-51,000) in July.

Thus far in 2008, payroll employment has fallen by 463,000. Over the month,

employment continued to decline in manufacturing, construction, employment ser-

vices, wholesale trade, and the information industry. Health care and mining

continued to add jobs over the month. (See table B-1.)

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Everyone knows these numbers are phoney...Its not a conspiracy it is just political expedience

All governments do it. Because they can. The independent statistics don't make the airwaves.

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No doubt this will be another conspiracy theory

I'll just wait to see the adjustments next month....I mean, it isn't as if they haven't corrected some months' numbers by 100k or so the next month (which tends to go under the media's radar).

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You are correct, except for the fact that I was submitting entries on my blog related to the upcoming downturn in Feb 2006, a year before you joined the site. I have been arguing on other forums about the downturn since last year (when I was very much in the minority)

So on balance, you are completely wrong.

I would have made it two out of three in my favour but perhaps I use different scales ;)

I will find your blog and look at your predictions for the future, maybe I have been a little unfair.

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I would have made it two out of three in my favour but perhaps I use different scales ;)

I will find your blog and look at your predictions for the future, maybe I have been a little unfair.

I don't make predictions as they are pointless and makes it look as though someone knows what is going to happen in the future, when in reality, none of us do.

This was my first housing related entry

http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/PermaLink,g...da711926a2.aspx

As I've stated many times, I thought housing was overvalued in 2001, so I called it completely wrong

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I don't make predictions as they are pointless and makes it look as though someone knows what is going to happen in the future, when in reality, none of us do.

I think a lot of people could and can see dark clouds in the distance. The thing that makes prediction difficult is timing and the precise sequence of events.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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