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Neo-Serf

Enter The Terminator Option

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Don't despair homeowners - the good times will soon bounce back – if, of course, you believe Oxford Economics (OE). The consultancy commissioned to gaze into its large crystal ball for the National Housing Federation.

According to OE, the average house price is expected to be nearly 25% higher five years from now. It believes that the impact of the credit crunch will be reasonably limited.

The Housing federation also appears to live in this world of virtual reality - it says: “If the employment market remains reasonably robust, it will provide an important base for the housing market”.

The OE forecast is based on the conventional wisdom which, 12 months ago, led people to believe that the housing downturn would terminate in a “soft landing” in the second half of last year.

Fundamentally speaking, this is “bull”

In past boom/busts, house prices took at least five years to stabilise – so why OE should imagine a 25% recovery in such a short period is perplexing. Especially when things are even worse in the markets.

For example, the British government’s advisor has just reported that his expectation is the mortgage famine could last until 2010. Which means that the recovery in prices is not likely until some time towards the end of the next decade.

Relying on these “fundamentals” – like: the disconnect between supply and demand in the housing market, the relatively low rate of inflation (compared with the late 1970s), and the low rate of construction of new dwellings – is totally irrelevant when trying to diagnose the performance of an imperfect property market.

Conventional wisdom again misleads the ‘experts’ when it comes to unemployment.

The numbers will start to ratchet up from about now. Mass sackings in the banking and housing sectors are only just the beginning. California’s Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has identified the public policy reaction to the crisis: he wants to slash the wages of 200,000 public employees. I doubt ‘There’ll be back’ for some time to come Arnie.

If you think that housing is unaffordable for many people today watch what happens from now on. www.renegadeeconomist.com

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Why don't you try and get the report for the 25% increase, so we can look at their assumptions.

I tried this a few years ago, and didn't get anywhere with OEF. Infact I think it was them who told me I would have to buy their report. NHF just refer you to OEF if you want to investigate their research.

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http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Hom...truths_2008.pdf

This is the URL for the report, it talks about currently house prices costing 11.2 times incomes last year...... it is completely insulting and ridiculous ... of course I suppose all our salaries might rise 20 or 30% in the next few years

My 4 year old daughter could write a better report than this

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The report is here

It's rubbish. Selectively focuses on just a few of the factors affecting houseprices. My five year old could have done better.

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http://www.housing.org.uk/Uploads/File/Hom...truths_2008.pdf

This is the URL for the report, it talks about currently house prices costing 11.2 times incomes last year...... it is completely insulting and ridiculous ... of course I suppose all our salaries might rise 20 or 30% in the next few years

My 4 year old daughter could write a better report than this

:lol: Spooky

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a lot of these reports seem to use papers provided by Oxford Economics. Is that something to do with that lunatic Nickell professor? and his predictions of houses at more than 10 X income and the UK population at 800million by 2020 ?

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This is Nickell in June last year

" The U.K. housing market is not overvalued and prices may increase further in the next few years because of a shortage of properties"

Nickell said the bank faces a ``challenge'' on inflation, suggesting interest rates may rise again. ``They'll breathe easier when the consumer price index falls back towards 2 percent -- and everyone else will too,''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...ZI&refer=uk

The guy needs locking up. with gordenron preferably.

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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