newbie Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 (edited) Not unjustifiably, there's a lot of talk about how the HPC is gathering momentum. But do you think that there will be a bull trap with prices seeming to recover only to plunge further? In other words, might there be a dead cat spring bounce in 2009? Edited July 31, 2008 by newbie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laura Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 In other words, might there be a dead cat spring bounce in 2009? Only if you buy enough houses & maybe the Wilsons will still be active Anyone else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DementedTuna Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 (edited) Not sure if 2005 can really be counted as a bounce, since it was more of a government band-aid than an investor rally... we never had the same media focus on falling prices back in 2005, compared to today's slaughterfest. I'd call it a bear trap more than a bull trap, since anyone STR'ing at the first sign of falls could have been better off waiting a little (although, looking back, they still made a very sensible move compared to most people). And even if it was, the people of Britian are so bloody HPI-manic that I wouldn't rule out a second bounce after the worst of the bank failures are done and dusted. I'm gonna go for a bounce in nominal terms in case of inflation, or real terms in case of deflation (maybe, very hard to judge the psychological effect of deflation on the cash-rich... anyone have any opinions on this? I'm a bit out of my depth on that point.) And that assumes that people buying houses are relatively smart.. if they're not, then make that a real terms bounce during an inflationary environment too. The upwards spike will look pretty spectacular for a few months before the speculators realise that no-one but them is buying. Edited July 31, 2008 by DementedTuna Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 Britain runs on the mouthing off of journalists. They are all running madly towards THE NEW BIG STORY. I don't expect a dead cat bounce. Just a few dead cats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mirage Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 (edited) Not unjustifiably, there's a lot of talk about how the HPC is gathering momentum. But do you think that there will be a bull trap with prices seeming to recover only to plunge further? In other words, might there be a dead cat spring bounce in 2009? No, it's not the stock market. It's not volatile. Each transaction takes months and is not dependent on what everybody else is buying or selling for that particular day. Houses don't bounce. They crumple into a heap of rubble. Edited July 31, 2008 by mirage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 If it follows any previous crash including housing, then there will be a few months of positive rises as some point soon, following the long uninterrupted fall we have had, fall continues and these are wiped out as the trend continues downwards. Interesting we really are due a MOM rise because of the curve, it should be soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHAL Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 No dead cat bounce is my opinion - we will get a constant stream of bad news (interspersed with the usual it did not fall as badly this month) until we hit rock bottom. Look at America - no dead cat rearing its mangled face yet! As someone else said - this is not the stock market - the sellers will soon be forced sellers and there will be many more of these than buyers (as there already are) - this does not make for a condusive rally. HAL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mew too Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 (edited) Not unjustifiably, there's a lot of talk about how the HPC is gathering momentum. But do you think that there will be a bull trap with prices seeming to recover only to plunge further? In other words, might there be a dead cat spring bounce in 2009? Interesting thread, did you happen to read the london lite tonight? On the page covering the nationwide numbers (page7) there was an odd article about a dead cat being sold on ebay for £36, i kid ye not. So tell me, did you happen to read this article? ...possibly sparked this thought? edit : here's the cat http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Mummified-Cat-Stelet...p3286.m14.l1318 Edited July 31, 2008 by mew too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatdog Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 (edited) Not unjustifiably, there's a lot of talk about how the HPC is gathering momentum. But do you think that there will be a bull trap with prices seeming to recover only to plunge further? In other words, might there be a dead cat spring bounce in 2009? Spring 2009 is a fair time ahead, far too much happening for anyone to be specific IMO. Like the notion tho'...a 2009 spring 'bounce' expectation could well be a last chance scenario for sellers to try and jump off the bandwagon. Edited 'for' Edited July 31, 2008 by greysquirrel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not Long Now Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 (edited) we've had it.2005 rate cut onwards,drew the last suckers in Spot on.... The crash really started in 2005... Prices are now back to 2005 levels (inspite of what the media are saying). One of my friends that bought in 2005 can't sell for the price she bought it for. It's been on the market for 6 months. Edited July 31, 2008 by Notlongnow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmpiricalBear Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 I also vote for the no bounce theory. It didn't happen last time either. For me I still see 2005 as the bounce. Housing markets are long drawn out cycles. 2005/2006 saw 'desperation buying' a sure sign of a bull trap. Can you believe that just 12-18 months ago people were asking EA's to text them at work in the morning so that they could view houses at lunch time and get a chance to put in an offer before anyone else could view? And that houses were selling before even viewing? In my area houses were selling before the EA's could type up the details in 2006. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 House prices are so sticky we dont generally get dead cat bounces or any of the other wonderful aberrations chartist so love. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 House prices are so sticky we dont generally get dead cat bounces or any of the other wonderful aberrations chartist so love. But there will be month on month rises, perhaps even 3 in a row? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 But there will be month on month rises, perhaps even 3 in a row? Not that you can make money on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nicholas Cage Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 (edited) If there is a mom rise, it will probably continue though, looking at previous crashes. It has to occur soon, any fall has rises and there have been none so far. Edit: from a dot com company selling pizza throught the internet direct to housepets, to USA or UK housing, always a rise at some point way before the bottom is reached, practically after the start sometimes. Edited July 31, 2008 by maxwell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slumpmonkey Returns Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 Dead Cat Bounce/Suckers Rally/Tulip Mania was 2005-2007 IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest KingCharles1st Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 Spot on....The crash really started in 2005... Prices are now back to 2005 levels (inspite of what the media are saying). One of my friends that bought in 2005 can't see for the price she bought it for. It's been on the market for 6 months. I have to agree- for me it was late summer 2005. I just don't see how it can be called any other way. IF anyone at that point truly thought we would get another two years of rampant stupidity, they must have been high as kites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 I have to agree- for me it was late summer 2005. I just don't see how it can be called any other way. IF anyone at that point truly thought we would get another two years of rampant stupidity, they must have been high as kites. Errr...but we DID get another two years of rampant stupidity... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest KingCharles1st Posted July 31, 2008 Share Posted July 31, 2008 Errr...but we DID get another two years of rampant stupidity... Where is the "poke in eye with sharp stick" smiley when you need it What I meant was, oh it doesnt matter- its too late and I need to go and find snuggletips the bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie Posted August 1, 2008 Author Share Posted August 1, 2008 Interesting thread, did you happen to read the london lite tonight? On the page covering the nationwide numbers (page7) there was an odd article about a dead cat being sold on ebay for £36, i kid ye not. So tell me, did you happen to read this article? ...possibly sparked this thought?edit : here's the cat http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Mummified-Cat-Stelet...p3286.m14.l1318 Actually I hadn't read it. Not much bounce left in that cat... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie Posted August 1, 2008 Author Share Posted August 1, 2008 Hmmmm. If the 'no dead cat bounce' / 'we've already had it' theorists are correct, then once we're out of MOM falls then the HPC has reached bottom and is officially over... But I'm not sure I'd be jumping in without waiting for quite a few months after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Woods? Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 I don't suspect a bounce...unlike stock markets, there is a lot of momentum in housing and a day or week of "positive" news doesn't have time to filter through before it is swamped by the next wave of bad news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieChuck Posted August 1, 2008 Share Posted August 1, 2008 Dead Cat Bounce/Suckers Rally/Tulip Mania was 2005-2007 IMO. I agree, we've already had it. This crash is different to the last, in that it's being accelerated by lack of supply of mortgages. To get increases we'll either need massive inflation (or though in reality house prices will still fall relatively) or a big increase in the supply of credit to enable people to start buying again. Government intervention looks like the only thing that will increase the supply of credit, but the consequences for sterling make this unlikely (I hope), except for maybe a token gesture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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