The Social Consequences Of Hpc

[VeryMeanReversion]

Now that this crash is looking like it will be around twice the magnitude of the last one (89-93), what do you all think the social consequences will be?

e.g

Will the 2 million repossessed bother rioting ? What would they actually be rioting about - their own reckless borrowing?

Millions off work with depression, reverting to benefits since jobs will be harder to come by?

Food-stamp programmes as in USA?

Extended families sharing houses?

Any change in population distribution to/from cities?

Regeneration of coal-mining towns?

Far fewer foreign holidays, tourists coming here since the £ is so low?

Sovereign Wealth Funds becoming UK landlords?

My economic expectations are price inflation with money supply deflation, my conclusion being a rapid fall in the standard of living generating a severe culture shock.

VMR.

[Caribbean Beauty]

I agree with most of the above, except that - unlike the time of the leftist student riots of the 1960's, the race riots/miners' strikes of the 80's or the poll tax riots of the early 90's, people are now too fat or unfit to riot!

There is no longer a core group of the majority of working class people who have hard manual factory etc work, or who walk to work or to the bus etc. Nowadays it is much easier to organise a riot, with electronic communications, but the people won't turn up, too damn lazy or busy on Facebook or watching porn on the PC.

For the hardcore youth chavs (hoodies etc) life in the recession will not change - their single mums will still be on the dole, they still won't insure their cars or pay for petrol fill-ups, they will still rob the odd phone or pensioner, hang out on corners and create drunken mayhem just as before. These people won't riot, as they are too selfish and disorganised, plus it would disrupt their sociopathic activities.

We are TOO FAT TO FIGHT! Also, years of HPI has left everyone who would once have been classed as working class, feeling middle class, and middle class people don't riot. If Posh and Becks or Jordan and Andre don't riot, then it would be untrendy for the sheeple to do it.

[ken_ichikawa]

Business as usual , except people leaving will accelerate, and government will again print out more money to pay the bills.

[Leonard Hatred]

Little change, except for a lot of grumbling from homeowners about all that money they "made" having now disappeared.

[interestrateripoff]

Increase in crime.

Possible new social movement to replace labour?

I thought for a while we could see new social structures with more sharing, not in the traditional family sense but maybe 2 couples living together and "sharing beds etc..." or maybe 1 man + two women or vice versa etc.... Have 3 wages or more coming into the new "family home".

[Smell the Fear]

or maybe 1 man + two women

We can but dream of such hardship.........

['Bart']

but maybe 2 couples living together and "sharing beds etc..."

Eh?

I though that we'd be seeing a bit less of this hedonistic behavior in future.

[corevalue]

Now that this crash is looking like it will be around twice the magnitude of the last one (89-93), what do you all think the social consequences will be?

e.g

Will the 2 million repossessed bother rioting ? What would they actually be rioting about - their own reckless borrowing?

They will consider themselves "victims" (as partly they are), whether they riot depends on how the bread and circus distribution goes.

Millions off work with depression, reverting to benefits since jobs will be harder to come by?

Absolutely

Food-stamp programmes as in USA?

Probably, since we copy so much of their great works

Extended families sharing houses?

Already happening. Spawn can't afford to leave.

Any change in population distribution to/from cities?

Cities will be zoned and travel between zone will be restricted

Regeneration of coal-mining towns?

No chance. No coal left.

Far fewer foreign holidays, tourists coming here since the £ is so low?

Yes, No. What would they come here for? The weather?

Sovereign Wealth Funds becoming UK landlords?

Possibly

My economic expectations are price inflation with money supply deflation, my conclusion being a rapid fall in the standard of living generating a severe culture shock.

Agree.

VMR.

Edited July 31, 2008 by corevalue

[silver surfer]

1. Even with significant price declines, the continued scarcity of absurdly easy credit means we'll see owner occupation rates drift down from the current UK level of just over 70% to the German/French levels of 50-60%.

2. That means an increase in long term renting. Helped by the fact that final salary pension schemes aren't coming back, so despite the current crash BTL will have an enduring appeal. Just that it will be increasingly restricted to a well healed minority with good credit ratings.

3. Tennants in the future will therefore constitute a more significant voting block. Maybe UK households will break down to something like a 20% landlord class, a 30% owner occupier class, and a 50% tennant class.

4. Young couples will increasingly return to a fraught and testy period of living with in-laws while they try and scratch together a deposit. This will result in a return of Les Dawson style "mother in law" jokes, which have almost completely died out during the past decade simply because no one now lives cheek by jowl with their mother-in-law.

5. No doubt there'll be outrage and indignation when elderly couples/pregnant women/disabled youngsters are increasingly seen on TV being evicted by private landlords, and the withering social safety net means many will stay on the street for longer and longer periods. Think of classic homeless documentaries like "Cathy Come Home", we'll see the remakes only in colour rather than black and white.

6. These heart rending media articles, plus the bigger political franchise of long term renters, will eventually lead to a tightening in the tennancy laws.

7. This in turn will trigger the next and final wave of the house price crash.

8. At this point we'll be back to where we were at the end of the second world war...and the whole cycle can then start over again!

[VeryMeanReversion]

1. Even with significant price declines, the continued scarcity of absurdly easy credit means we'll see owner occupation rates drift down from the current UK level of just over 70% to the German/French levels of 50-60%.

When 2 million get repossessed, I doubt they will have enough earning years left to get back in again.

2. That means an increase in long term renting. Helped by the fact that final salary pension schemes aren't coming back, so despite the current crash BTL will have an enduring appeal. Just that it will be increasingly restricted to a well healed minority with good credit ratings.

3. Tennants in the future will therefore constitute a more significant voting block. Maybe UK households will break down to something like a 20% landlord class, a 30% owner occupier class, and a 50% tennant class.

6. These heart rending media articles, plus the bigger political franchise of long term renters, will eventually lead to a tightening in the tennancy laws.

So the end of the AST where families can be kicked out with 2 months notice.

4. Young couples will increasingly return to a fraught and testy period of living with in-laws while they try and scratch together a deposit. This will result in a return of Les Dawson style "mother in law" jokes, which have almost completely died out during the past decade simply because no one now lives cheek by jowl with their mother-in-law.

My mother-in-law is very good (but dont let her know), only lives half a mile away.

5. No doubt there'll be outrage and indignation when elderly couples/pregnant women/disabled youngsters are increasingly seen on TV being evicted by private landlords, and the withering social safety net means many will stay on the street for longer and longer periods. Think of classic homeless documentaries like "Cathy Come Home", we'll see the remakes only in colour rather than black and white.

Do you think a tot of repossessed and unemployed people may overcome their apathy and demand action from their leaders?

7. This in turn will trigger the next and final wave of the house price crash.

Ah, the revulsion stage.

8. At this point we'll be back to where we were at the end of the second world war...and the whole cycle can then start over again!

Demographics should kill off the chance for another boom for decades. Decreasing workers per pensioner will constrain income for as far ahead as I can see.

VMR.

[Timak]

The self-made property "millionaires" who truely believe in a free-market, who slam all forms of Government interference in financial issues and who shrugged off the despair on the miners and car workers in the 1980's......

....will plead for Government help to stabilise the property market and not see the irony.

[The Masked Tulip]

Discussed at length in other threads over recent years but...

Divorce rates will soar. Solicitors are already reporting this.

Suicide rates, tragically, will also soar.

Children will be left without one parent

Elderly people will live on longer than one of their kids.

The divorce and suicide rates will be the real tragedies of this consumer greed evil.

There are people now, today, contemplating taking their own lives because of all the debt they are in. Tragic.

Think about it.

Edit:

This Winter people will die from the cold out of fear of not being able to pay their fuel bills. Thousands of elderly people who live by themselves probably wil die and no one will even notice.

Edited July 31, 2008 by The Masked Tulip

[interestrateripoff]

The self-made property "millionaires" who truely believe in a free-market, who slam all forms of Government interference in financial issues and who shrugged off the despair on the miners and car workers in the 1980's......

....will plead for Government help to stabilise the property market and not see the irony.

The miners and the car workers where the anchor to be thrown overboard to control inflation. The north has been decimated at the alter of inflation, now it's the turn of the City boys to be thrown over and all of those who fell for the free market get rich quick scheme.

[sossij]

Now that this crash is looking like it will be around twice the magnitude of the last one (89-93), what do you all think the social consequences will be?

e.g

Will the 2 million repossessed bother rioting ? What would they actually be rioting about - their own reckless borrowing?

.

.

.

VMR.

While I hope they do riot, I don't think that it would be possible for the banks to repossess 2 million homes. There has to be a number at which it is no longer worthwhile, if not impossible, to repossess. If these families refuse to be repossessed and squat en masse what are the banks going to do? There's nothing they can do. I wouldn't be surprised if people having difficulty with their mortgages or facing potential repossession organise mortgage repayment disobediance on a huge scale, using the web do disseminate legal information (as we've seen with the bank charges movement) and arrange flash mobbing to prevent the bailiffs from throwing people out.

The banks are completey screwed.

Edited July 31, 2008 by sossij

[Thucydides]

Good idea for a thread.

Drink-fuelled town-trashing and violence rates will go down, as the chavs will find it harder to find money to spend on booze. More social housing plans to keep the chavs off the streets. Higher percentage of tenants over OOs. High street shops changing from EAs, mobile phone accessories and pubs to charity shops and debt advice and economy supermarket brands.* Fewer chavs disgracing themselves on holidays in foreign towns. Reduction in equity being exported to Spanish beach towns and Australian cities by Brits emigrating or buying second homes. Phil & Kirstie will be taken to The Hague for crimes against humanity.** Not every other car will be a luxury model, driven by a small pri ck to make up for the fact that he has a small pri ck. More rust-bucket Marinas on the roads and fewer brand new BMWs in the next 5 years, methinks.

* When in Australia recently I noticed something weird about the people there - when they walked, they managed to do it without holding a mobile phone up to their ear. Upon returning to the UK, things were quickly back to normal, and I was once again back in the land of everyone permanently on their mobiles wherever they were. Remember, whenever you see someone on a mobile, that's two people on a sodding phone.

** While there they might try and talk Radovan Karadzic into buying a small cottage in Dorset. He is currently being tried for crimes against hairmanity.

Edited July 31, 2008 by Thucydides

[silver surfer]

Divorce rates will soar. Solicitors are already reporting this.

TMT, the recent evidence I've seen seems to show exactly the opposite, divorce rates are falling as they have in every previous recession. Divorce is an expensive indulgence, which is why for previous generations it was the almost exclusive preserve of the rich.

[billfunk]

Surely the chavs and the rich will avoid the worst of the recession. The government can't afford to offend the rich for fear they will leave the country. Likewise, if the government offends the untermenschen by withdrawing welfare then this will lead to more crime. It's cheaper to house chavs in slums than it is to stick them in prison.

Everyone in between will be punished for their civil obediance.

[interestrateripoff]

TMT, the recent evidence I've seen seems to show exactly the opposite, divorce rates are falling as they have in every previous recession. Divorce is an expensive indulgence, which is why for previous generations it was the almost exclusive preserve of the rich.

O God you mean I've now got to stick with the wife.

Edit typo.

Edited July 31, 2008 by interestrateripoff

[VeryMeanReversion]

While I hope they do riot, I don't think that it would be possible for the banks to repossess 2 million homes.

The banks are completey screwed.

I think it was 1 million people got repossessed last time, dont know how many homes that means.

I think the banks will become insolvent but the govt will change the rules to keep them look ok. The FT today says the mark-to-market method for the US banks is being postponed for another year (no need to wonder why, it isnt the extra paperwork).

VMR.

[VeryMeanReversion]

O God you mean I've now got to sick with the wife.

I hope thats a typo.

[The Masked Tulip]

TMT, the recent evidence I've seen seems to show exactly the opposite, divorce rates are falling as they have in every previous recession. Divorce is an expensive indulgence, which is why for previous generations it was the almost exclusive preserve of the rich.

Some TV lawyer has been doing the rounds of TV shows in recent months saying that she and her colleagues are seeing increased numbers of people filing for divorce.

Plus you have this in the Economist this month which interestingly puts divorce into 'how much money do you have' perspective:

http://www.economist.com/world/britain/dis...ory_id=11792871

In the early 1990s divorce rates did soar and I see no reason why it should not be the same again this time.

[bagsos]

I think the bigger problems aren't going to be caused by HPC but by the country crashing - we are a rentier nation, with a something for nothing culture and massively in debt to the rest of the world. This can't go on. The currency markets have noticed this already and the £ has tanked. It will tank further, I think. One of the consequences of the £ tanking is that the eastern europeans who used to come here for seasonal agricultural work no longer do, leaving the nation importing huge amounts of food whilst crops rot in the fields for want of someone to pick them at the same time as 5m people on benefits slob round watching TV. No nation can afford this long term IMNO, so the first consequence will be reduced benefits and people forced into agricultural work in exchange for benefits - we have already been softened up for this. We soon will be importing most of our energy and don't export enough manufactured goods and services to cover its cost; so longer term I believe coal mines will be dug and we will have to start making the things we consume again as soon no-one will be willing to extend the nation credit.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/W...st%2BNine%2BMen

[The Ayatollah Buggeri]

Will the 2 million repossessed bother rioting ? What would they actually be rioting about - their own reckless borrowing?

I doubt it, partly because of the growth of the surveillance state. Rebellion might take the form of a big increase in the number of people declaring themselves bankrupt in an attempt to wipe the slate clean. If this happened in significant numbers it could undermine the banking system (and the society built on it), just as effectively as the Brixton or poll tax riots ever did.

Millions off work with depression, reverting to benefits since jobs will be harder to come by?

Whatever you call the benefit, there will be an increase in people subsistent on the state, for sure.

Food-stamp programmes as in USA?

No Labour government would ever go there, but a Tory one might (especially in the immediate aftermath of a general election).

Extended families sharing houses?

Increased density of people per housing unit, certainly. Not just three generations of a family sharing a house, but Mum, Dad and two kids trying to share a one-bedroom slave box flat, too.

Any change in population distribution to/from cities?

I'd expect to see the middle classes moving from picture postcard commuter villages within a 30-mile radius of a major centre of employment into suburbs. The homes there tend to be cheaper to run and the public transport infrastructure is better.

Regeneration of coal-mining towns?

Are you suggesting that we're going to start coal extraction for electricity generation again? I suspect not, and that there'll be a massive push to renewables before that's contemplated. However, if energy security becomes a critical problem and renewables can't help, then this might trump the greenie brigade.

Far fewer foreign holidays, tourists coming here since the £ is so low?

Fewer foreign holidays, but I doubt if there'll be much increase in inward tourism due to the cost of long-haul travel (dictated largely by the oil price).

Sovereign Wealth Funds becoming UK landlords?

Not on any significant scale. We'll see protectionist legislation before that happens.

[Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz]

They are starting to mine again in S Wales - a new coalmine has just opened.

Tourism numbers aren't down much here in Wales, but more tourists are camping and they're spending alot less - the art galleries, etc., are on their knees. As are the EAs who usually try to offload their second homes to the City boys, who ain't got the money or the confidence to buy. Thank god.