Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
libspero

Ftse Jumped Up This Morning

Recommended Posts

This latest round has been particularly impressive, they have dropped the price of oil and are very heavily suppressing the price of gold while boosting the Dollar.

I keep coming across this theory that they are supressing the price of gold.

Is this because money was once tied to gold and if so then what stops them using Oil or something else like pladium or urainian if a new peg was created

If they are supressing the price then they have not done a very good job over the past five years

All the gold in the world is only worth something like $1/2tr so why not just buy it all up and stash it away

1980 gold spike was a trap to catch arabs and it worked so why not try the old trick again.

Gold protects against the printing press but so does a lot of comodities even if they are too big to hide under the floorboards

Silver was at $50 when Gold was at $900 during the last boom and silver is only worth $18 today so are they supressing silver more than gold today

i'm not having a go but i don't get it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Ftse seems to be well up this morning.. I wonder whether it is on the back of the news that LLoyds still made a profit despite the crunch?

Lloyds TSB's first-half underlying profit was 1.57bn, down 19% on the previous year.

Was the market expecting worse?

Linky.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oil prices are now falling (Peak Oil is an alarmist load of BS) and many Anglo-American companies are announcing results that weren't as bad as analysts had feared only a couple of weeks ago.

The real estate/mortgage markets are a mess, but if oil keeps falling steadily back towards 100 USD p.b and then sub 100 next year, things may not be as bad as people were fearing.

I still think UK house prices will fall 30-40% from their peak though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ted, The news has changed drmatically. A few months back the IMF was forcasting that the world would have a full recession, there was talk of it being like the 1970's or even the 1930's. Consequently the markets tanked, I think the IMF report came out around May time. What we have had over the past two weeks is reporting season and profits excluding financials are up 8% for the S&P. The real driving factor is that any company exposed to the emerging markets has posted very, very good figures, IBM, Caterpillar, Proctor and Gamble, Reckitt Benkiser, Cabury, etc, etc. So now the markets believe that the talk of doom and gloom and depression is wrong. It looks like the world will just have a slowdown, but still grow, hence share prices are volatile because we are at that stage where the market is not sure what will happen. One day the markets wake up and the galss is half full and they buy stocks, the next day the glass is half empty and they sell stocks. Until the future outlook for world markets is clearer, expect more volatility.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That and the DOW shot backup yesterday.

It's a farce.

All down to the DOW, they are desperately trying to form another "bottom" at 11,000 in the same way they did at 12,000. They can not allow the markets to crash while the credit markets are in the shape they are in, so far they have been incredibly successful at managing it down in stages.

This latest round has been particularly impressive, they have dropped the price of oil and are very heavily suppressing the price of gold while boosting the Dollar. All this has stabilised the previous slide on the DOW that looked likely to turning into the full blow crash they are protecting against. Incredibly all these indicators that have been helping to stabilise the DOW should be doing the complete opposite given the biggest financial bail out in history with F&F, it is almost as if they understands the importance of these 3 indicators and are trying to confuse/reassure investors. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Ftse seems to be well up this morning.. I wonder whether it is on the back of the news that LLoyds still made a profit despite the crunch?

Was the market expecting worse?

C'mon, do you honestly think Lloyds is associated w/ the credit crunch per se? Yeah, it's a bank, but if you you at its shareprice over the past 5 years what you see is continual disappointment over their refusal to exploit people's appetite for tat, frippery, indulgence, houses and cheap credit.

And they are one of the few shares down this am. You really must tatoo Ted's words on your brain: FTSE largely follows Dow. Do a study of it if you need convincing. As for it being a farce, I don't agree. Our economy is linked to theirs thru exports. They also set trends for us and even in housing, their market has led ours. Arbitrageurs will always be adjusting their positions in Dow and FTSE to refelct the Dows movements. This is what causes the direct link.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Ftse seems to be well up this morning.. I wonder whether it is on the back of the news that LLoyds still made a profit despite the crunch?

Was the market expecting worse?

Linky.

I think its because the Dow went up on unopposed US Congress approval of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac intervention yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The Ftse seems to be well up this morning.. I wonder whether it is on the back of the news that LLoyds still made a profit despite the crunch?

Was the market expecting worse?

Linky.

I take it you didn't bother to check LLOY share price change in relation to FTSE change before posting this drivel?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That and the DOW shot backup yesterday.
All down to the DOW, they are desperately trying to form another "bottom" at 11,000

Agreed.. didn't notice the dow, just heard about LLoyds on the radio this morning during my shower then saw the FTSE and put 1 and 2 together.

Confounded, love the idea of the dow being controlled.. can they really do that? what mechanism do they use?!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I take it you didn't bother to check LLOY share price change in relation to FTSE change before posting this drivel?

Yes, it was all a deliberate ploy to get your back up :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As for it being a farce, I don't agree. Our economy is linked to theirs thru exports. They also set trends for us and even in housing, their market has led ours. Arbitrageurs will always be adjusting their positions in Dow and FTSE to refelct the Dows movements. This is what causes the direct link.

I agree that we are linked to America, but what I mean is that the DOW rose 2% yesterday (or however much rose) after falling back 2% on Monday just points to them not having a clue about what to do.

Either they are worried, or they are not. Make your mind up time.

If the stock market is supposed to be based on the enconomy, I don't see how we can have such large falls and climbs over a few days. The news hasn't changed that much.

We are just seeing the market for what it really is IMHO. A professonal gamblers association, which is very easily manipulated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
C'mon, do you honestly think Lloyds is associated w/ the credit crunch per se? Yeah, it's a bank, but if you you at its shareprice over the past 5 years what you see is continual disappointment over their refusal to exploit people's appetite for tat, frippery, indulgence, houses and cheap credit.

And they are one of the few shares down this am. You really must tatoo Ted's words on your brain: FTSE largely follows Dow. Do a study of it if you need convincing. As for it being a farce, I don't agree. Our economy is linked to theirs thru exports. They also set trends for us and even in housing, their market has led ours. Arbitrageurs will always be adjusting their positions in Dow and FTSE to refelct the Dows movements. This is what causes the direct link.

i did this last week cos i was bored,

Graphs borrowed from the BBC

this is the ftse YTD

3_bbc_big_thick_line_twelve_monthftse.png

this is the Dow jones YTD

2_bbc_big_thick_line_twelve_month.png

this is the 2 on top of each other, FTSE is red DOW jones in blue

ftse_red_dow_jones_blue.jpg

they seem to follow each other pretty well

post-13510-1217409004_thumb.png

post-13510-1217409013_thumb.png

post-13510-1217409020_thumb.jpg

Edited by Monkey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ted, The news has changed drmatically. A few months back the IMF was forcasting that the world would have a full recession, there was talk of it being like the 1970's or even the 1930's. Consequently the markets tanked, I think the IMF report came out around May time. What we have had over the past two weeks is reporting season and profits excluding financials are up 8% for the S&P. The real driving factor is that any company exposed to the emerging markets has posted very, very good figures, IBM, Caterpillar, Proctor and Gamble, Reckitt Benkiser, Cabury, etc, etc. So now the markets believe that the talk of doom and gloom and depression is wrong. It looks like the world will just have a slowdown, but still grow, hence share prices are volatile because we are at that stage where the market is not sure what will happen. One day the markets wake up and the galss is half full and they buy stocks, the next day the glass is half empty and they sell stocks. Until the future outlook for world markets is clearer, expect more volatility.

I still believe that there is more out there to come homw to roost.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If anyone is interested in the Lloyds numbers...........

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Lloyds TSB Group Plc, the biggest bank that depends almost entirely on fees from lending in the U.K., reported first-half profit that fell a more-than-estimated 63 percent because of bad loans and credit writedowns.

Lloyds TSB declined as much as 5.3 percent in London trading after the company said net income was 576 million pounds ($1.1 billion), or 10.1 pence a share, falling short of analysts' average estimate of 881 million pounds. The bank raised the dividend by 2 percent, less than last year's 5 percent.

Chief Executive Officer Eric Daniels told reporters today the odds of a U.K. recession are increasing. Bad loans jumped 31 percent to 1.1 billion pounds in the first half, and Lloyds TSB wrote down 585 million pounds of credit-related assets. Daniels said house prices in Britain may fall 15 percent this year, and the company's first-half gains in mortgage lending may not last.

Unlike rivals, Lloyds TSB doesn't need to raise capital or reduce its dividend, Daniels said. ``We are very well capitalized. Our business model is a very cautious one and errors on the side of prudence. We don't have to make an awful lot of adjustments

Last man standing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I keep coming across this theory that they are supressing the price of gold.

Is this because money was once tied to gold and if so then what stops them using Oil or something else like pladium or urainian if a new peg was created

If they are supressing the price then they have not done a very good job over the past five years

All the gold in the world is only worth something like $1/2tr so why not just buy it all up and stash it away

1980 gold spike was a trap to catch arabs and it worked so why not try the old trick again.

Gold protects against the printing press but so does a lot of comodities even if they are too big to hide under the floorboards

Silver was at $50 when Gold was at $900 during the last boom and silver is only worth $18 today so are they supressing silver more than gold today

i'm not having a go but i don't get it.

Like a lot of people you are looking at the detail rather than the big picture which I tend to be referring too. This is all about preventing a meltdown, given the stress in the markets a year on from the crisis we have not seen anything resembling true panic. This is not about complete control and the ability to move fundamentals far from their natural levels it is just about suppressing the indicators that cause fear and consequently maintain a level of stability in the markets.

Each time panic seems to be forming the indicator/issues causing the panic are addressed. In the first major DOW low after BS gold was the focus having reached a historical high at the peak of the market concerns (nearing panic) about systemic financial collapse, despite lowing rates and moniterizing a huge amount of debt gold declined significantly, this act suppressed this particular indicator and peoples fears declined.

This latest market low was caused by high oil and again conveniently just when the DOW looked like crashing oil declined, gold was pulled back from it’s attempt to challenge new highs on concerns of F&F failure and the absolutely huge moniterizing of their debt. Fundamentals say this should have been rocket fuel for Gold and Oil which should have also resulted in further declines in the dollar. Instead every day in the last 7 trading days gold has been aggressively sold at NY opening, oil has been pulled down and the Dollar has strengthened.

So my point is it is not luck that at each point when things look to be getting out of control the issues/warning indicators are addressed. I don’t believe this is a conspiracy theory because what else would we expect them (FED/large investment banks) to be doing when the issues to be addressed are of the magnitude currently faced. So when I say surpressed/manipulated this is just to a level where they can restore confidence in the markets, this is not about going back to where we were more about managing the transition to where we are heading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If anyone is interested in the Lloyds numbers...........
and Lloyds TSB wrote down 585 million pounds of credit-related assets

..

Lloyds TSB wrote down 62 million pounds on collateralized debt obligations, 170 million pounds on bond insurance, 46 million pounds on a structured investment vehicle and 307 million pounds on traded credit investments. The losses counted against first- half profit.

If Lloyds, the conservative bank, are having to write off 0.5bn, how much are the other less conservative banks going to have to write off. This could be carnage again when the other banks report.

I think HBOS reports tomorrow, that should be fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I still believe that there is more out there to come homw to roost.

There is an absolute shitstorm out there yet to come home to roost. Half or a third of the way through the writeoffs, the FED raising its debt ceilings to their limits (or not :blink::blink: ) and the rest of the world playing patsy for the time being. The $ might be gaining at the moment (completely illogical to me) but I think this will eventually become a currency crisis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If Lloyds, the conservative bank, are having to write off 0.5bn, how much are the other less conservative banks going to have to write off.

Probably about the same, they will just have a better accountant!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is another positive piece of Dow news :

Visa's Profit Rises 41% as More Consumers Use Cards

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

Purchases made on debit cards rose 16 percent to $193 billion in the U.S. for the quarter ended March 31, Visa said, compared with a 10 percent gain a year earlier. Spending on credit cards rose 8.1 percent to $195 billion in the U.S. The company reports these figures three months in arrears.

Just like Ukplc, an economy built on innovation, thrift and pure hard graft

Unlike rival American Express Co., Visa and MasterCard Inc. are insulated from rising U.S. defaults because they don't make loans to cardholders. Second-quarter results from credit-card lenders show consumer defaults and late payments are rising as consumers are squeezed by rising unemployment and higher prices.

Don't understand that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't understand that.

Could they be referring to the securitisation of the debt, consequently they are not holding the majority of the debt, they just get a cut of the interest repayments?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle4322121.ece

QUOTE

More than $1 trillion (£500 billion) is held on credit cards in America. In the UK, debts of more than £50 billion have been run up on the plastic. Across the world, somewhere between $2 trillion and $3 trillion is owed on credit cards.

Up to now, the credit crisis has passed by without plastic going into meltdown. Statistics have shown steady levels of arrears, and suggested that many consumers have been successfully paying off part of their balances.

Now there are increasing signs that this last breakwater, shoring up the economies of the western world, is about to crack under ever-increasing strains.

QUOTE

“Credit cards are definitely going to be one of the next big problems,” said Steve Nuttall, head of the financial-services research group at polling company YouGov. “Our research shows that everything started to fall off a cliff in about March or April and that should begin to show up in bad-debt charges by the end of the year.”

YouGov’s research suggests that 15% of the British public is now behind on at least one bill of some kind or another. Of those in trouble, 38% say they are behind with utility bills or council tax, while 31% cite credit cards as their big problem.

Problems in credit-card debts have the potential to send a new wave of panic through global financial markets.

QUOTE

Credit-card debts were packaged up and sold on by banks during the boom years, just like mortgages, car loans and the multiple billions of debt used to fund large private-equity deals.

For the banks, it was a cheaper way to lend money to consumers at competitive interest rates.

The debts owed on thousands of credit cards were swept together and placed into a large bond, off the bank’s balance sheet. The pool of credit cards was then cut into slices, based on the likelihood that the credit-card company would get its money back.

Other banks bought the best slices, which represented the money the credit-card company expected to be paid back, no matter what. The riskiest slices, which would be hit first if customers started missing their debt repayments, were sold to racy hedge funds.

I never really understood how the Credit crunch could be so severe and yet people were still receiving countless new offers for credit cards. It did not make sense until I read this article. They were doing the same as they did with mortgages except they still had/have buyers for this type of debt. I get the feeling this could be the point when the crunch truly hits home when this one goes bust.

Amazing they have not reigned in on this one given that this type of financial model was proven to be broken in the mortgage market, but hey the banks are all about selling these things on and making money, it is up to the buyers to says no and call an end.

Incredible!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who gives a shit?

It's just a fookin' casino - I can't see how the stock market rising or falling impinges on my life in any meaningful way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Who gives a shit?

It's just a fookin' casino - I can't see how the stock market rising or falling impinges on my life in any meaningful way.

You may soon be about to find out how a collapsed stock market can have a very meaningful impact on your life.

If this is just the ebb and flow of a minor 20% correction you would be right, but if this is a potential rerun of the collapse in the 1930's then you are very wrong. My view is we are heading for that collapse and this is why so much intervention is occurring, if it is not that dire why not just let the market sort itself out and let the bargain hunters come in to form a natural bottom. The people in charge rightly or wrongly fear a complete collapse, this is enough to get my attention.

Had I not whiteness the level of intervention I have seen since March 07 I would be a lot less fearful of the collapse than I am now. This I also believe will be the achilles heal of the intervention approach, until the market is allowed it’s natural blow out it will never settle. I can only see then intervention finishing when the banks are sufficiently capitalised to withstand a SM crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.