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Property Guru's How To Survive The Great Depression Of 2009

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inflation or deflation.

that is the question.

Whether tis nobler to bung it into assets, or by holding cash, be punish-ed...

what we need is a global stock market / commodity / property fund. Weighted to preserve the current relationship between each country's components, much like for example the FTSE 100 represents the major UK companies.

in an inflationary depression, the value of assets such as stocks will rise, preserving the fund's value (stocks were used instead of money in the Weimar hyper inflation).

in a deflationary depression, the yields on the fund will grow rapidly allowing more assets to be purchased.

discuss.

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inflation or deflation.

that is the question.

Whether tis nobler to bung it into assets, or by holding cash, be punish-ed...

what we need is a global stock market / commodity / property fund. Weighted to preserve the current relationship between each country's components, much like for example the FTSE 100 represents the major UK companies.

in an inflationary depression, the value of assets such as stocks will rise, preserving the fund's value (stocks were used instead of money in the Weimar hyper inflation).

in a deflationary depression, the yields on the fund will grow rapidly allowing more assets to be purchased.

discuss.

Wrong, if we get either an inflationary or deflationary depression stocks will not hold their value in real terms. The reason is in a depression of any kind spending is cut dramatically and hence profits.

The only way to protect yourself against deflation is to hold cash or cash equivalent like bonds ect. Another possible problem here is that bonds might have negative yields in a depression so you would still lose. The only way would be to hold cash but only 1% or so of the money is cash and hence not a lot of people can do this.

In an inflationary bust at best you can try to preserve your wealth, you will not in real terms make money (unless you had long term fixed debt before the inflationary spiral). In this situation the only thing I can think of right now is index linked stuff but that would require the gov to be solvent at the end and hyperinflation usually destroys currency itself. But real assets will hold some value even if they fall so probably best to go into real assets.

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The only way would be to hold cash but only 1% or so of the money is cash and hence not a lot of people can do this.

/quote]

That struck me as funny. There's a shortage of cash, get some while you can!

VMR (STR mostly in cash)

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An inflation/deflation debate won't be the same without injin around.

I think until we really know which way it's going, the best thing is to keep your savings easily liquifiable, and be ready to move at very short notice from one asset type to another.

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The only way would be to hold cash but only 1% or so of the money is cash and hence not a lot of people can do this.

This is part of the omega topple the government plan I read somewhere, that everybody should draw money out of their accounts at the same time on the same day, or cause a fake bank run (100 mates queuing outside a HSBC ought to do it when the PM appears on TV telling people NOT to panic and there is no problem even more people will join the queue).

Hence all banks will collaspe, bringing down the government with it...

Some terrible side effects though , ie Martial law , shoot on sight , tianamen square in London occuring. oh and bringing down the entire economy also.

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That struck me as funny. There's a shortage of cash, get some while you can!

VMR (STR mostly in cash)

i mean physical cash in your wallet under your bed stuff

not credit in a bank account. or bonds which are cash equivalent. in a depression in theory the gov/banks could offer negative interest rates (ie you money instead of earning interest gets smaller). this isn't possible with cash itself though.

but imo it is unlikely that you would see negative interest, but 0% interest is likely.

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Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable
An inflation/deflation debate won't be the same without injin around.

I think until we really know which way it's going, the best thing is to keep your savings easily liquifiable, and be ready to move at very short notice from one asset type to another.

Has Injin gone?

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This is part of the omega topple the government plan I read somewhere, that everybody should draw money out of their accounts at the same time on the same day, or cause a fake bank run (100 mates queuing outside a HSBC ought to do it when the PM appears on TV telling people NOT to panic and there is no problem even more people will join the queue).

Hence all banks will collaspe, bringing down the government with it...

Some terrible side effects though , ie Martial law , shoot on sight , tianamen square in London occuring. oh and bringing down the entire economy also.

unlikely, government would bring in a law making printing of physical cash legal by the banks so long as they destroyed it at a certain time later. very dangerous to do but would stop the system collapsing.

when those who tried to collapse the banks return their cash to the banks (to earn interest) then the printed money can be destroyed.

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He didnt exist

If, collectively, we all ceased to believe in him, would he vanish?

Seems so.

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I recall Ezra Pound, poet and unrepentant fascist, hence critic of capitalism, had a mad idea he called "stamp scrip", whereby bank notes would be date coded, and would deteriorate in value over time unless they were circulated via consumption/investment. In other words, Pound thought that to counter the effect of rich men clogging up society with vast wealth, they should spread it around (on pain of financial penalty) to the benefit of general prosperity.

In the poems I think the metaphors were digestive/psychological: good regular movements rather than constipation and choleric distemper (intestines = economy).

Complete madman, but possibly the best poet of his time.

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Guest Steve Cook
An inflation/deflation debate won't be the same without injin around.

I think until we really know which way it's going, the best thing is to keep your savings easily liquifiable, and be ready to move at very short notice from one asset type to another.

Completely agree

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i mean physical cash in your wallet under your bed stuff

not credit in a bank account. or bonds which are cash equivalent. in a depression in theory the gov/banks could offer negative interest rates (ie you money instead of earning interest gets smaller). this isn't possible with cash itself though.

And the good bit is they can't use your money as reserves to keep the mortgage market going. I could take 10-20 mortgages off the market.

Some are doing the in the US, theres a small action group advocating this.

VMR.

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I recall Ezra Pound, poet and unrepentant fascist, hence critic of capitalism, had a mad idea he called "stamp scrip", whereby bank notes would be date coded, and would deteriorate in value over time unless they were circulated via consumption/investment. In other words, Pound thought that to counter the effect of rich men clogging up society with vast wealth, they should spread it around (on pain of financial penalty) to the benefit of general prosperity.

In the poems I think the metaphors were digestive/psychological: good regular movements rather than constipation and choleric distemper (intestines = economy).

Complete madman, but possibly the best poet of his time.

We have that already - its called inflation.

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For example, say a builder received a cheque from a client as a stage payment during the course of building a house. Instead of banking the cheque the builder could just endorse it on to one of his subcontractors as payement for labour and materials. Eventually of course the cheques would make it to the banking system but would not need ot do so for a while as long as everyone accepted them as legal tender.

What? Builders accepting cheques? Where exactly does that happen?

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unlikely, government would bring in a law making printing of physical cash legal by the banks so long as they destroyed it at a certain time later. very dangerous to do but would stop the system collapsing.

when those who tried to collapse the banks return their cash to the banks (to earn interest) then the printed money can be destroyed.

It is not necessary for the Govt to pass such a law. We all have the capacity to 'print' our own money already. When you write a cheque all you are doing is creating a 'bank bill' that can be passed around and endorsed on to the next person like a currency note.

I believe there was a thread on HPC a while ago about this happening in Ireland once when the banks closed for a few weeks. Quite soon there were uncleared cheques being passed around Ireland between people who knew and trusted each other as a mechanism of exchange.

For example, say a builder received a cheque from a client as a stage payment during the course of building a house. Instead of banking the cheque the builder could just endorse it on to one of his subcontractors as payement for labour and materials. Eventually of course the cheques would make it to the banking system but would not need ot do so for a while as long as everyone accepted them as legal tender.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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