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researchmug

"when The Prices Tumble"

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I've read a lot in this forum about a point "when the prices tumble". But I'm beginning to wonder if that will ever happen?

............................................................

I only got as far as the first line and decide that you are talking pants.

Prices are going down big time as you would know if you read any off the auction links so what the hell are you going on about.

pull yourself togeather man and make some scence.

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I've read a lot in this forum about a point "when the prices tumble". But I'm beginning to wonder if that will ever happen? Surely as long as there are lowish interest rates the majority of vendors will be able to cling on to their homes. Vendors will be able to leave their property details in quiet estate agent windows, bleaching away in the sun indefinitely.

I acknowledge that there are rising forced sales and unemployment which will have an effect on bringing about falls in a certain sector or the market , but is it really enough to cause a all out 'tumble'. Without 14 percent interest rates like in the last recession I can't see how prices will fall.

There are about 6 house I would be interested in buying which have been on the market for quite a while , some since last summer, but no movement on the prices at all?

surely there won't be any movement until something forces it? with interest rates potentially falling this month, I really don't see a 'tumble on the horizon. Surely the majority of the market can just sit it out?

I'm wondering if others wanted to enlighten me? I'm clearly missing something

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I've read a lot in this forum about a point "when the prices tumble". But I'm beginning to wonder if that will ever happen? Surely as long as there are lowish interest rates the majority of vendors will be able to cling on to their homes. Vendors will be able to leave their property details in quiet estate agent windows, bleaching away in the sun indefinitely.

I acknowledge that there are rising forced sales and unemployment which will have an effect on bringing about falls in a certain sector or the market , but is it really enough to cause a all out 'tumble'. Without 14 percent interest rates like in the last recession I can't see how prices will fall.

There are about 6 house I would be interested in buying which have been on the market for quite a while , some since last summer, but no movement on the prices at all?

surely there won't be any movement until something forces it? with interest rates potentially falling this month, I really don't see a 'tumble on the horizon. Surely the majority of the market can just sit it out?

I'm wondering if others wanted to enlighten me? I'm clearly missing something

Do you think prices are going up?

Do you think the 2% monthly falls the major indices are showing are wrong? or do you think this could not be construed as "tumbling"? I wonder what you consider tumbling :blink:

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Depends where you look. Where I am looking asking prices have been reduced from 300K to 260K, and 280K to 220K, and those houses have sold (STC). These are big reductions on previous valuations. Sure, some other similar properties haven't been reduced. But they haven't sold. This is East Midlands and I think, to sell now, 15%-20% below 2007 peak is needed.

I am overseas and will buy in the next 12 months. I will expect about a 25% reduction by summer 2009. I would expect to be able to buy a house, previously marketed at 300K for about 220K, and will still expect to "lose" 20-40K on it over the next 3 years . That amount of volatility is madness.

Prices are definitely down though.

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"Depends where you look"

And I just can't be arsed to make realistic offers to deluded agents and vendors. Its a very boring waiting game

Well there is your answer then. Buy now. Good luck with it.

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It's still 'if' no matter what people here are wishing - I would doubt whether houses that you'd actually want to buy will really budge much at all - and in some areas they will go up (as they still are in parts of London).

Some overpriced flats and the like will drop because they weren't even selling in the boom..

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As asset values fall in a highly politicised economy, protracted efforts are made to avoid allowing the normal market channels to reflect the fall in prices. Prices for homes, office buildings, hotels, and other properties tend to decline slowly while the credit crunch pushes greater numbers of marginal borrowers into default.

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I've read a lot in this forum about a point "when the prices tumble". But I'm beginning to wonder if that will ever happen? Surely as long as there are lowish interest rates the majority of vendors will be able to cling on to their homes. Vendors will be able to leave their property details in quiet estate agent windows, bleaching away in the sun indefinitely.

I acknowledge that there are rising forced sales and unemployment which will have an effect on bringing about falls in a certain sector or the market , but is it really enough to cause a all out 'tumble'. Without 14 percent interest rates like in the last recession I can't see how prices will fall.

There are about 6 house I would be interested in buying which have been on the market for quite a while , some since last summer, but no movement on the prices at all?

surely there won't be any movement until something forces it? with interest rates potentially falling this month, I really don't see a 'tumble on the horizon. Surely the majority of the market can just sit it out?

I'm wondering if others wanted to enlighten me? I'm clearly missing something

Its useful to be reminded nothing in the future is a given, but I'd have to say its hard to find any evidence that suggests much other than a huge tumble. Asking prices in any market do not even closely resemble the ultimate exchanged price during times of uncertainty or change. You see that effect in any market. Unlike in a double-ended auction on a financial exchange, you can't generally see the buyer's offer price on open offers in the housing market. That would be a much nicer figure to look at. Asking prices are only half the story. If you're looking for signs of a crash in prices, examine what the buyers are prepared to give, not what the sellers want.

Edited by Fraccy

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I've been watching rightmove myself for the last few months and checking out the same price ranges each time. Here in West Mids, there's quite a price range depending on area.

I've watched 'reduced' and 'new price' appear on houses in the local freebie papers but would say asking prices are only down about 5-10% since Feb, and thats on houses that don't seem that appealing to start with. (Of course, actual sale prices are probably well below asking prices).

Another poster gave an opinion that only 'tat' is coming down in price, I see evidence of this but I think the problem may now be that 'desireable' houses are now either off the market altogether or vendors refuse to budge. A few more now appear to be empty judging by photos (length of grass in garden a giveaway) and the more common 'no upward chain' statement. Bridging loans? Repos?

More 'forced sales' will appear if unemployment starts to rise sharply, but no massive drops on rightmove yet, at least round here. Auctions are another matter, the results posted on here seem to indicate that those with cash are getting BIG drops.

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It's quite sad to see that anyone that posts anything other than "prices are going to fall by 900% the economy is in meltdown we're all doomed" on this forum get shouted down and usually verbally abused!

I firmly believe that we are in the midst of severe housing crash and that prices will fall by anything up to 40% but I'm inclined to agree with the inital poster that local evidence of house prices dropping are very difficult to find. Yes there's the odd 'new price' property in the local weekly rag but generally prices seem to be staying buoyant. This is confounded by people putting their properties on the market at ever higher prices.

I've spoken to a couple of people recently who are keen to sell, but as there are no buyers out there for their properties at the moment, they are deciding to put their houses up for rent. There are people who are forced to sell, Divorces, Debt and Deaths, but the vast majority of people who would 'like' to sell, seem to be hanging on to their properties rather than drop the asking price and hopefully ride out the storm.

It seems to me that it's only overpriced tat that's dropping in price at the moment and that the quality houses are still holding their price.

Having sold our house and exchanged contracts within the last week I am now in the fortunate position to be sitting on the sidelines watching the carnage unfold.

We are currently living at dads house. He has this one on the market, its a 4 bed semi in Bridlington, Yorkshire and up to now has had no offers on it since it went to market six months ago. The house is priced at £149k - this isnt expensive compared to other houses in other areas, however it is overpriced for the average earnings ratio in this town. Its my opinion that this house will sell either to some mug, or when it reaches 100k, however dad wont drop his price as he doesnt need to sell, but having paid off the mortgage some time ago it would be nice having £140k in the bank for his retirement while he rents a flat somewhere in town.

Some areas will fall harder than others. If a house is priced at 300k, there are far fewer that could afford it than those that could pay 100k. I reckon that all prices will be levelled out over time for comparable sized properties.

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Somethings gone askew with the listed times of the postings on this thread! Seem to be jumping backwards and forwards by an hour.

This post was made at 11:19, time says 10:19.

Edited by Stourbridge Baggie

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It's quite sad to see that anyone that posts anything other than "prices are going to fall by 900% the economy is in meltdown we're all doomed" on this forum get shouted down and usually verbally abused!

I agree, anyone posting anything less than a bearish post is treated as if they're being deliberately antagonistic rather than just having a differing opinion. I think the problem is maybe people expect a 'crash' to be prices somehow dropping 50% overnight, whereas obviously it's a much slower process. The graphs such as the one on the front page of nationwide HPi definitely shows the market has gone into full-reverse and looks like it's going to be another repeat of the last crash, and my propertbee shows a lot of reductions ( tend to watch sub-£1m terraced houses in london myself) but at the rate of 2% drops a month I'm in for a long wait before it's worth buying again. 2% a month actually translates to 24% a year of course but it's hard to appreciate that at the time. For the orig poster I would highly recommend using property-bee to see real reductions in his postcode of interest, otherwise it's easy not to realise how much things really are shifting.

ps. I think the nationwide graph on the front page should be replaced with the slightly clearer nationwide one I ripped from their pdf and I've (hopefully) attached to this thread.

UK_House_Prices_adj_inflation_2008Q2.JPG

post-12503-1217366761_thumb.jpg

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"Depends where you look"

perhaps you are right.

I've just moved from the east midlands (nottingham region) to a quite posh market town in the south east. Maybe there's just too much money round here to cause people to reduce their prices, as I'm honestly not seeing any real reductions. I believe others that there are big reductions elsewhere, but here (in the month i've lived here) I've seen only one reduction from 399 to 389. which I would hardly describe as a tumble.

I know I'm no expert, I'm just saying that what I'm reading here, frustratingly doesn't quite marry with what I'm seeing in my search for property.

And I just can't be arsed to make realistic offers to deluded agents and vendors. Its a very boring waiting game

Edited by researchmug

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It is more than that. There are rants againts VI (vested Interest) in prices rising, but what the ranters on here have not realised is that they are all VI's in a house price crash because they want to buy a house. There is always two sides to the story, yes we could have a 50% crash in house prices, but conversely we could have just have a 10% drop and then prices stagante for th next 5, 10 years. Where will that leave the I want to buy that house price at 300 K in 2007 for 50K now in 5 years time, yes still renting.

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2% a month actually translates to 24% a year of course

21.5% a year.

[Edit - I know it's a smart **** correction but this is HPC.co.uk and I feel we should get these things right.]

Edited by mirage

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It's quite sad to see that anyone that posts anything other than "prices are going to fall by 900% the economy is in meltdown we're all doomed" on this forum get shouted down and usually verbally abused!

I firmly believe that we are in the midst of severe housing crash and that prices will fall by anything up to 40% but I'm inclined to agree with the inital poster that local evidence of house prices dropping are very difficult to find. Yes there's the odd 'new price' property in the local weekly rag but generally prices seem to be staying buoyant. This is confounded by people putting their properties on the market at ever higher prices.

I've spoken to a couple of people recently who are keen to sell, but as there are no buyers out there for their properties at the moment, they are deciding to put their houses up for rent. There are people who are forced to sell, Divorces, Debt and Deaths, but the vast majority of people who would 'like' to sell, seem to be hanging on to their properties rather than drop the asking price and hopefully ride out the storm.

It seems to me that it's only overpriced tat that's dropping in price at the moment and that the quality houses are still holding their price.

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I acknowledge that there are rising forced sales and unemployment which will have an effect on bringing about falls in a certain sector or the market , but is it really enough to cause a all out 'tumble'. Without 14 percent interest rates like in the last recession I can't see how prices will fall.

surely there won't be any movement until something forces it? with interest rates potentially falling this month, I really don't see a 'tumble on the horizon. Surely the majority of the market can just sit it out?

I'm wondering if others wanted to enlighten me? I'm clearly missing something

Yes, you are missing something. Part of the sum. If you tried to solve 7 + Y x 5 = W you will never get the value of W until you know Y. The Y in your case is the mountain of personal debt.

The interest rate is only part of the equation. The size of the loan is equally important as is the size of any other debt. Then there are wages and lost jobs to consider. Inflation may erode ability to pay also but to me the biggest factor of all is that very few folk already carrying a large debt are going to get additional finance to bail them out. Equity release has kept this bubble going at least 2 years longer than it's natural lifetime and now it's payback time. Or should I say 'can't payback time'.

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It's quite sad to see that anyone that posts anything other than "prices are going to fall by 900% the economy is in meltdown we're all doomed" on this forum get shouted down and usually verbally abused!

Thats not the case but starting a thread that say black is white is going to be asking for trouble.

All the data shows prices are coming down so it's pointless to argue about if they will ever come down just because the house next door to you has not come down yet.

Few houses are selling at estate agents and the ones that are selling at aution are going for 2001-2 prices.

These are the facts of the matter

anyway welcome to the site

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24 months from now the Haliwide indices will be £120,000 (£110,000 in todays money asssuming inflation doesn't go balistic) and will still be heading downwards.

That's enough of a tumble for me. :)

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I won't be the only one who has noticed the very high number of new members posting to this thread ;)

Their views seem to be very similar <_<

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I think that the increasing number of bank owned properties appearing on the auction market are evidence enough that prices are falling.

The political will to stop falls, owing to the bad sentiment that that brings; is obviously the elephant in the room within the media at the moment. Britons have been forcefully educated that rising prices are a good thing, and that the inflationary perils are secondary to keeping house prices high. What we need is formal legislation on the BoE to prevent bank bailouts (did you get a bonus for Barclays et al were doing well via a tax break through the HMRC via BoE?), and a rigidly enforced max lending criteria of 4x salary for all individuals/couples applying for mortgages.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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